FL

Green-Pasture

Cresco’s last AU market that flipped for them……Illinois. A lessoned learned from the boom period where M&A hid declining sales and other challenges…..if someone is performing without catalysts in competitive markets pay attention. Cresco has turned it around with zero help from AU flips in the last few years, now they have OH, PA, FL.

nerms1

There's a lot of misinformed takes in these comments on the subject. Disclaimer: I've worked in the property and casualty insurance industry for well over a decade. Started in claims (auto, home, liability) but moved into HR several years back working on talent strategy, closely with finance, marketing, sales, actuarial, and data teams. Lots of people in here mentioning that this is all a scam because insurance companies are scam artists. The insurance industry is one of the most regulated industries in the country. Each state has its own Dept. of Insurance that regulates the insurers doing business in their state. Insurance companies generally can't just "raise your rates" for no reason. If your premiums went up, it's because either because you've had a change in risk somehow, or the insurer has been approved by the Dept. of Ins. to raise rates for certain risk factors. They have to go through a long and arduous process to get approved to increase rates, showing actuarial models of the risks and such. If the DOI believe that the insurer is raising rates to the point of making too much profit, they'll deny the request. Most insurance companies are operating on razor thin margins when it comes to underwriting profitability. There are a few exceptions of course. A lot of companies lost money the past few years during the height of inflation. We as consumers felt inflation in our normal monthly expenses, but inflation hit insurance companies extra hard. The cost to repair or replace vehicles and homes have increased at a rate far greater than the normal CPI numbers we're used to seeing. Insurance companies try to make a profit back by investing your premiums in stocks, bonds, REITs, and other investments while the money is being held before being paid out. If claims losses are too high, it's unlikely they'll be able to make that back on the investment front. Climate change and hyper inflation have absolutely destroyed profitability ratios for companies the past few years. Most have been trying to play catch up with increasing rates to compensate, but prices for labor and materials keep going up. This is why most people have seen dramatic increases in their insurance premiums the past few years. As the article mentions, this is a real problem that could be disastrous long-term for homeowners. A lot of insurers are dropping out of places like CA and FL because they are becoming far too unprofitable to insure. My final hot take. To the people complaining that "insurance companies just deny everything" - read your damn policy. It's a unilateral contract that spells out everything your insurance company will and won't cover, and at what limits. It's not your insurance company's fault that you're an uninformed consumer. You bought a contract and made an agreement to pay a premium for a certain level of insurance coverage - maybe you should ask questions in advance as to what you're actually paying for before a storm hits. If your insurance company is actually denying coverage for a loss they said they will clearly cover as outlined in the policy, then they are in breach of contract and you should file a complaint with your state's DOI to get it resolved quickly. The DOIs do not mess around with this stuff.

lipmanz

Any thoughts on the fact FL listings are dropping like rocks though? Short term headwind?

bmcgin01

Yeah, that's what I said, I live in FL so I didn't factor in state taxes. He was wondering about state taxes so I assume he lives in state that has them.

bmcgin01

I keep forgetting about state taxes.  I live in FL.  I’m not sure what the state charges.  I doubt it would be another 20%.  

gnocchicotti

I have a mother of a friend who is blind as a bat and old as dirt so of course she lives in FL. And she also had a car totaled from flood damage from a hurricane last year. So all of that shit is why insurance is so expensive in FL. On top of normal FL things where literally every industry thrives off of scamming old people, and normal insurance companies being scammy as a baseline.

CannaVestments

A good start to 2024 from Cresco Labs as efficiency improvements and cost reductions executed at the end of 2023 carried into the new year. While the top-line remains stagnant, Cresco has significantly reduced their cost profile (SG&A down $18M from 1 year ago) and significantly expanded margins, all leading to better cash flow generation. Looking ahead, Cresco has a max footprint in Ohio (5 stores and a Level 1 grow currently), the first state adult-use conversion in some time that Cresco will have exposure too, offering an opportunity for a return to top-line growth in addition to FL and PA potentially in the years to come. Comparison to Q4: **Revenue:** Q4 $188.2M to Q1 $184.3M *2.1% decline was slightly better than expected ($183M), and was down 5.1% from 1 year ago (flat YOY if you exclude divestitures). No new assets during the quarter or expected near-term, so growth will be muted until Ohio rec turns on in June of this year (where Cresco has a max footprint of 5 stores and the larger Level 1 grow), with FL and PA offering optionality down the line. No breakdown of retail:wholesale this quarter oddly.* **Adjusted EBIDTA**: Q4 $54.8M to Q1 $53.2M  *Modestly down here in-line with top-line decline and well ahead of consensus ($47M). Margin roughly flat at 29.1% in Q4 and 28.9% in Q1- $4.5M in one-time adjustments and $4.2M in SBC in this figure. This was up 82% from the $29.3M posted 1 year ago, reflecting the tremendous strides Cresco has made in improving their margin profile through efficiency improvements despite no top-line growth.* **Gross Margins:** Q4 51.1% to Q1 50.0% *Slightly down qoq but still at a strong level, and up from 44.2% posted 1 year ago.* **Operating Income:** Q4 $27.1M to Q1 $29.2M *Increase here as OpEx decline more than offset marginally lower gross profit.* **Operating Expenses:** Q4 $69.0M to $63.0M *Really good cost control, with OpEx as a % of revenue dropping further from 36.6% in Q4 to 34.2% in Q1- a very lean figure. SG&A was down almost $18M from 1 year ago- an impressive improvement.* **Operational Cash Flow:** Q4 -$3.3M to Q1 $36.5M *Big swing into the positive here although Q1 typically doesn't have a tax payment so will have to wait for full financials to be released. CapEx was just $3M for FCF of $33M. Lookout for the payout to non-controlling interest holders when the full financials are out.* **Cash:** Q4 $108.5M to Q1 $128.2M *Again no financials yet but looks like positive OCF was offset by CapEx spend and a $11M drag in financing activity (likely the non-controlling interest holders payout). Debt stands at $405M.*

sld126b

I’d be curious if this is a state specific thing. Like for example, are FL & CA 2x the avg cost with 2x the average people, so it’s 4x the influence.

Resi86

Interesting assumptions. I disagree. - Florida adult use is not baked into Trulieve’s valuation: FCF for Q1 of $74m (after subtracting the $50m irs refund), back of the napkin annualized to ~$300m. EV of ~$2.6b (mc $2.2b, $327m cash, debt $482, uncertain tax position of $278m). Undervalued - You are making an assumption that pharmacies will step in and compete following schedule 3?? Very big unknown. Several variables: will there be a Garland memo, will States rights be upheld (FL requires vertical integration also), etc. Even if these assumptions are accurate, it would only affect retail and not wholesale/cpg (which Trulieve has economies of scale and unmatched efficiencies). - Trulieve’s balance sheet is fine. $40m loss sucks, but they will be more than ok - the last point you made was too incoherent for me to interpret The end.

Adult_Prodigy

SNDL is finally becoming profitable- has mountains of cash on hand, and has huge exposure to Germany and the US- Florida in particular. Schedule 3 finalization, FL legalization, SAFER Banking Act all help this business. Massively undervalued.

XenonOfArcticus

Is y ou ABnB booking rate sub-par? Most AirBnB homes I know of can book at a decent profit. What's the obstacle there? Seems like a beach house in FL should be like shooting fish in a barrel.

AxemanFromMA

Planning a vacation to Clearwater FL for Memorial Day weekend. Any of u regards reccomend an all inclusive hotel there?

Drputt

VidaCann has a good rep in FL among customers.

enfuego138

Frankly, I wouldn’t own property in FL in the near term anyway until insurance is sorted out. The way things are going down there your property insurance is very likely to become unaffordable or unavailable in the next few years. In any event that’s not a liability you want if you’re not even living there.

billbraskeyisasob

That’s 100% not the case now and to think otherwise is completely detached from what the average millennial is experiencing in this country. Most people can’t buy a tent in someone’s backyard let alone a house. There was no a shortage of homes in 2006. That’s ridiculous. The only places that remains true is in places like Gatlinburg or Destin, FL where people went YOLO long on AirBnB’s during Covid that are now sitting. Florida has issues due to Hurricanes too. Nowhere else in the country is experiencing that.

Resi86

Probably just need some cash. Terrascend isn’t in FL and could be a buyer of that license. Or Ascend

zbern

Thank you for bringing this company up last week. I bought a few shares after some minor research and am very excited. FL insurance companies seem like a decent investment right now. Any thoughts on ACIC?

tpat36

Would love to see them sell everything in FL and have Trulieve swoop in and buy them up at a super cheap valuation. That would give TRUL every missing piece and they could sell off dupe licenses in a few limited licenses states for a good chunk of cash, especially if S3 finalizes this year. I know they don’t want another harvest like acquisition but if they could get all of these licenses at bottom of the barrel prices it may just be worth it. May even make more sense in a year once Cannabist rights the ship a bit but they could be a great match eventually.

roloplex

> Don't think those red states' lawmakers aren't paying attention to the $+4bn in tax revenue projected for 2025. you mean how all those FL GOP politicians that are against the ballot measure?

xraygun2014

Point being, policies are shifting and rescheduling helps support the framework for that shift - even in red states. The SAFER banking act is within spitting distance of passing the US Senate which would mean [offering relief from Internal Revenue Code 280E, resulting in a much lower effective tax rate for businesses across the industry, as well as providing expanded opportunities to research the plant and its impact on and interactions with the human body...](https://www.americanbar.org/groups/business_law/resources/business-law-today/2024-february/safer-banking-act/) The state of FL has it on the ballot this fall and that's an industry that [added 15k jobs in 2020 while the rest of the state shed 400,000](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Amendment_3,_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative_\(2024\)) Don't think those red states' lawmakers aren't paying attention to the $+4bn in tax revenue projected for 2025.

roloplex

Such as TX, FL, GA, NC, SC, TN, KY, AL, LA, AR, OK, KS, NE, WY, ID, UT, SD, ND, WV, IA, and IN. But yes, if you live in AK, MT, or MO, rec cannabis is legal.

jeopardy_loser

In 2016 for the same size house also in FL I paid $600 a year when I bought

infinite_cura

FL opening is actually a lot more than most ppl think. That's why TCNNF spent a great deal of money and energy in...

thezenunderground

I've seen four down here in FL

nassau_rip

They are positioned with growth through OH PA and FL which should be great this year. But they need moar.

Resi86

Maybe some assets, like VA and NJ (which are the ones that Cannabist would want to keep), but the whole thing would require a couple years of optimization and restructuring which, after the Harvest deal, I don’t think they’re interested in right now. I think they’ll be looking for big deals if / when FL goes through and they’ve fully prepared for that

lipmanz

Thought I saw a deal on a FL condo, HOA 1200 a month!

Resi86

Maybe I’m wrong, but I’m trying to put a fundamental value in place for these businesses and not let the (otc) market dictate my thoughts on what their share prices should be. When Trulieve was trading at $3.50 I said that with S3 and FL adult use its worth at least $50, and bought up as much as I could afford. Now we have much greater clarity into both those variables and I stand by that value (if not significantly higher), and continue to buy what I can afford. I can wait, not investing money I need now and never using margin / leverage

No-King2606

My whole family went to the feed store near Orlando, FL and picked up a bunch of Ivermectin for horses. All of us recovered from Covid within 3 days. It was no big deal. None of us took the mRNA garbage jabs.

ChemicalMedicine4523

I’m an MJ Doc in FL. I would say it’s even money to pass. The dark side is strong here.

livefromheaven

I like how this hashtag applies to both rescheduling and FL adult use

CannaVestments

Blowout quarter from Trulieve to start 2024, with good growth well ahead of expectations, significant margin expansion, and strong cash flow even when adjusting for unpaid taxes. Management highlighted increase retail traffic and basket size in Q1 as they continue to open up new stores in FL, continuing to position themselves ahead of the November ballot initiative for adult-use. The cash position now stands at a massive $327M against an uncertain tax position of $278M as the company continues their challenge of 280e taxes. Comparison to Q4: **Revenue:** Q4 $287.0 to Q1 $297.6M *3.7% consecutive growth and up 4.3% from 1 year ago was well ahead of consensus ($286M), led by higher retail traffic and basket size in the quarter. TRUL opened 3 stores in FL during the quarter and has opened 1 more in Q2 so far.* **Adjusted EBIDTA:** Q4 $87.8M to Q1 $105.8M *Massive 20.5% qoq and up 35.5% from 1 year ago- a huge beat on consensus of $82M. Margin expands significantly from 30.6% in Q1 to 35.6% in Q2 - their highest margin since 2021. Relatively minor adjustments in this figure of $5.1M in one-time costs and $3.7M in SBC.* **Gross Margins:** Q4 53.6% to Q1 58.4% *Huge improvement here as well- a leading figure amongst MSOs in the quarter.* **Operating Income:** Q4 $29.2M to Q1 $46.1M *Big jump here as gross profit jumped well exceeded OpEx increase.* **Operating Expenses:** Q4 $124.7M to Q1 $127.7M *Modest increase here behind top-line increase, with OpEx as a % of revenue dropping from 43.4% in Q4 to 42.9% in Q1.* **Operational Cash Flow:** Q4 $131.5M to Q1 $139.2M *Big number to start the year, although again largely due to not paying taxes as they challenge 280e. Tax-adjusted OCF was $32.4M in Q4 and $38.9M so still a nice jump up here. CapEx was $15.6M in the quarter.* **Cash:** Q4 $201.4M to Q1 $326.9M *Huge jump in cash with the OCF print, offset slightly by CapEx spend. Note that their Uncertain Tax Position related to the challenged 280e taxes now stands at $278M- the likely reason why TRUL holds such a large cash position while they await a response from the IRS. Debt stands at $482.4M.*

Resi86

If FL goes adult use, they’ll be able to buy anyone.

CannaVestments

GTI starts off 2024 extremely strong with results ahead of expectations, improved margins, reduced OpEx, $31M in net income, and an all-time high in cash flow generation. After roughly \~$200M in annual CapEx spend over the last 3 years, GTI guided to $100M in 2024 spend with $15M spent in Q1, focused primarily on new store openings and select capacity expansions in markets like Connecticut and Florida. Q1 OCF was +$84M and FCF at +$69M, growing the cash balance to $224M as they weigh further debt paydown, additional share buy-backs, and CapEx spend. Looking ahead, GTI is well prepared to meet the adult-use initiative in Ohio where they have the current max of 5 stores and a Tier 1 grow at the max capacity allowed by the state in H2 2024, as well as the start of adult-use sales in Minnesota in H1 2025. Potential adult-use opportunities in Florida and Pennsylvania lie ahead as well, with a balance sheet and footprint to take advantage of. Comparisons to Q4: **Revenue:** Q4 $278.2M to Q1 $275.8M *.8% sequential decline was better than expected ($269M), and up 11% from 1 year ago with retail up 7.9% and wholesale up 19.3% during that time. Only 1 new store in FL opened in Q1, with 1 more FL so far in Q2.* **Adjusted EBIDTA:** Q4 $90.8M to Q1 $90.5M *Flat results here was a big beat on consensus ($81M), with margin expanding from 32.6% in Q4 to 32.8% in Q1- likely the highest result of their peer set and up from the 30.6% posted 1 year ago. Adjustments of $6.5M of SBC in this figure.* **Gross Margins:** Q4 51.3% to Q1 52.5% *Another jump here and at the highest mark since 2021. Management highlighted some price stabilization in certain markets and better capacity utilization overall.* **Operating Income:** Q4 $50.3M to Q1 $70.7M *Huge jump here as higher gross profit combined with lower OpEx. Note that management highlighted a one-time $16M OpEx reduction in the quarter related to a contingent consideration reduction, but would have been up even if you adjust for at $54.7M.* **Operating Expenses:** Q4 $92.3M to Q1 $74.3M *Big drop here although as noted aided by the contingent consideration adjustment and would have been $90.2M normalized so still down qoq. OpEx as a % of revenue drops from 32.6% in Q4 to 26.9% in Q1- very lean.* **Operational Cash Flow:** Q4 $71.0M to Q1 $84.0M *Don't have financials yet to look at tax dynamics but a huge number to start the year, up 12% from 1 year ago to an all-time high. GTI remains the cash flow leader of the MSO space by a large margin. Management noted $15M of CapEx so FCF was $69M in Q1 alone- a huge number.* **Cash:** Q4 $161.6M to Q1 $223.9M *Again don't have the full CF statement, but positive OCF appears to have been partially offset by $15M in CapEx spend and $13.6M in share buy-backs ($53.4M in share buy-backs total now for 4.9M shares for an average of $10.88/share). Debt stands at $309.9M* -- **Notes From Call:** -Well prepared in Ohio with 5 stores and an already expanded cultivation facility ready to meet adult-use demand. Think it is an extremely strong market from day 1: small medical market currently with a big population so upside is big. GTI canopy is maxed under the medical limit at the moment so ready to go. -$15M in CapEx in Q1: mainly FL retail footprint and CT cultivation expansion. Sounds like they are cautiously approaching the FL adult-use initiative- planning to open up more stores under the current medical regime but will ratchet up if the vote goes well in November. -$100M CapEx planned for the 2024 down from $220M in 2023. Focus on 15 new stores in FL/NV/MN/OH and certain capacity expansions. -NJ facility expansion came online during the quarter and aided wholesale results. -NY, VA, MN all were expanded as well and have unused capacity at the moment ready to meet demand. NY growing already, MN adult-use on the way in March, and VA growing on the medical side with adult-use voted down. -Flat guidance for Q2 -No initial plans to change 280e approach for now, but certainly watching what peers are doing to see if anyone does so successfully. -Lots of dialogue with the US exchanges but no changes on their end as of now as to their willingness to uplist US operators. -While prices declined YOY, noticed some improvements QOQ in certain markets suggesting some stabilization overall.

JimboJones42O

So they’re willing to lose FL because they can’t handle the devil’s lettuce? Seems like a kinda silly play, but go nuts dummies.

Ausdummer

FL Dictator say no, boo you LiBeRAl [https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2024/05/07/florida-gop-says-no-to-weed-referendum-00156447](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2024/05/07/florida-gop-says-no-to-weed-referendum-00156447) /s

CannaVestments

Overall an in-line quarter from Verano with results as expected after reduced guidance was given in Q4, stable margins, and continued cash flow generation, but also elevated OpEx. Guidance suggests growth will largely be muted until Ohio adult-use turns on in H2 (where Verano has 5 stores and a T2 grow), so increasing wholesale penetration will be a focus as new stores in IL and NJ continue to challenge retail revenues in core states. Unlike certain peers, Verano does appear that it is continuing to pay their 280e taxes for the time-being, using current cash flow to pay down debt ($50M paid down in Q2) although highlighted it would have saved $80M in 2023 taxes had 280e been removed. Comparisons to Q4: **Revenue:** Q4 $237.2M to Q1 $221.3M *Fairly steep drop of 6.7% consecutively and 2.6% from 1 year ago, but ahead of the $216M consensus as the company had guided to a MSD yoy decline during the Q4 call. VRNO opened 2 new stores during Q1 (1-PA, 1-FL), relocated another PA dispensary, and has opened an additional partnership store in CT so far in Q2. Wholesale was flat with the sequential drop all on the retail side, particularly in FL/NJ/IL where new stores were coming online with retail:wholesale split landing at 76:24. Q2 guidance was for flat to LSD growth over Q1.* **Adjusted EBITDA:** Q4 $73.4M to Q1 $66.5M *9.4% decline was right at consensus ($66-67M), with margin down from 30.9% in Q4 to 30.0% in Q1. This was down from the $70M posted 1 year ago as well. Only minor adjustments of $1.8M in one-time costs and $3.5M in SBC.* **Gross Margins:** Q4 49.6% to Q1 51.0% *Solid showing here and a strong level relative to peers.* **Operating Income:** Q4 -$11.1M to Q1 $22.7M *Q4 had an impairment and was $31.9M without so actually a big drop here as lower gross profit combined with higher OpEx.* **Operating Expenses:** Q4 $128.8 to Q1 $90.3M *Comparable Q4 figure excluding the impairment was $85.7M so an increase here. OpEx as a % of revenue rises from 36.1% in Q4 to 40.8% in Q1, as the company highlighted costs from new store openings and prep for Ohio's adult-use market in H2 2024.* **Operational Cash Flow:** Q4 $32.3M to Q1 $31.0M *Slight drop here, although waiting in financials to look at tax-dyanmics. It does not appear that Verano is challenging 280e yet like some of their peers. CapEx was $9.7M for FCF of $21.3M.* **Cash:** Q4 $174.8M to Q1 $193.8M *Again don't have the full CF statement yet, but largely looks like positive OCF offset CapEx with only minor other adjustments. Management noted that they have subsequently paid down $50M in their senior term facility in Q2 and are looking at potentially paying down more. Debt as of Q1 was $445M.*

ThinkingOfTheOldDays

I first had it in \~2006 in college in FL, but cramer was recommending people buy it. biases run deep!

KrankyKoot

They are super casual and comfortable for us old retired folks here is FL.

BHOmber

He's buying up all the Cookies-licensed assets in FL and rolling them into the Cookies corp. At least that's how I understood it from his IG post last week.

empatheticword

It's produce season in florida. Freight truck rates going up for outbound FL shipments by at least 30%. Will last about 3 months.

PIMP420757

Nice! I loved Howard, such a good dude all around. I miss those days! I miss FL in general. I'm from Winter Park and I'm still not over trading that Webber pick for Penny....Webber and Shaq would have been a fucking wrecking crew! Hoping those Amway fucks don't blow it again since they seem to be building something worthwhile again!

1TalefromTheCryptos

My inflation updated vacation for the kids this year  Disney 2023 & 2024 NY to FL Lego Land NY 2024

reneegulae

FL is not a given. 60% is a high bar to jump.

reneegulae

Need FL to pass. It’s going to be close

jetatx

Spirit is gonna pop. I've been holding this one after the merger drop. They are super busy, they've been ramping up on catching cheepos avoiding carry on fees, and they built new a new facility in the FL area to train more reps for better client experience and overall service. I feel safest on their fleet. All new. Better than Southwest, and United.

Ghosted_Stock

My local FL sold its space to some randos

Zestyclose-Bar758

Long NVDIA Short FL 🥳

Dan_inKuwait

I'm going to dedicate a whole chapter to shorting opportunities of $FL. You can help me co-author? It'll be easy. We'll just find random online gambling forums and ask their unsolicited opinions.

DasBoggler

Yeah, Trulieve is pumping millions into campaign in FL to make it recreational because it is so unprofitable....

redditsuxdicks

Saturated market? Where? Yes, FL and CA seem to have the most cafes/bars but I don't think the market is hardly saturated. Do a little research before making an opinion based only on you near surroundings. Besides, one could say that the coffee shop market is saturated but yet new locations open almost daily and are successful. $BLEG is not in the business of opening cafes but rather supplying them. https://kalmwithkava.com/kava-bars/#:\~:text=Kava%20Bars%3A%20Experience%20Island%20Relaxation,and%20for%20a%20good%20reason!

nsrbigshot

DIS lowkey screwed, bad management and no response to Universal in FL/Movie lineup being a flop is a disaster

Fantastic-Catch-5490

Originally I had something that looks like very similar to this. I just had 17-week bonds laddered in Treasury Direct. I had the option of just keep reinvesting them whenever they matured. I am not big fan of the site which is why I am trying to move away from it. I live in FL so no statr income tax for me. = )

TenAC

FL governor keeps making this a political football. Even if the fed makes moves, Florida might be slow to follow

mealucra

Great open, good to see Dan celebrating with us. Also good to see AYRWF mentioned. FL will be huge for AYR if it goes rec. 🤞

infinite_cura

DEA aim to finish by Sept 1 per Boris Sooner says today that CAOA will be reintroduced tomorrow - good luck SAFER gets more momentum now ER season starting tomorrow German rumor circulating - rumor is still good Asian market is opening up with Japan FL is a juicy one what else?

john2557

S3 + FL adult use is insane potential for them.

CannaVestments

Mixed quarter to cap off a strong year from Cansortium. Good top-line growth although margins compressed to finish the year as costs from new store openings added up. Looking ahead, primary focus is on the Florida market which has an adult-use ballot in November where they currently have 35 stores with eyes to open 4-6 more as new capacity comes online (first crop from new facility in July and then second new facility to open in Q4. Comparisons to Q3: **Revenue:** Q3 $25.3M to Q4 $25.5M *Small increase here to a new all-time record, a good result considering the start of winter tends to be a seasonally softer quarter for Florida. Florida revenue was 85% of the total at $21.6M, with the 3 stores in PA and the TX operation making up the rest. FY 2023 revenue was $97.3M, up 11% from 2022. The company opened 4 new stores in FL during 2023 and has opened 2 more so far in 2024 (now 35 in FL). The company expects supply from their new Ruskin, FL facility in July and then the new Rosa, FL facility to come online in Q4 and will open new stores as supply is available.* **AEBITDA:** Q3 $8.8M to Q4 $6.9M *Drop here as higher SG&A spend with new store openings led to aEBITDA decline. Margin declines from 34.8% in Q3 to 27.1% in Q4. FY 23 figure was $27.2M (28% margin), up from $25.1M in 2022 (28.6% margin).* **Gross Margins:** Q3 63.9% to Q4 49.4% *Large drop sequentially due to higher SG&A.* **Operating Expenses:** Q3 $11.7M to Q4 $9.3M *Good cost-control in the quarter, with OpEx as a % of revenue dropping from 46.2% in Q3 to 36.5% in Q4- a lean figure.* **Operating Cash Flow:** Q3 $7.1M to Q4 $1.4M *Drop here although tax payment timing is a factor. Don't have the full financials yet to see the necessary IFRS adjustments need to measure tax-adjusted cash flow properly. FY 23 reported OCF was $18.5M, down slightly from $19.1M in 2022. Note that tax deferrals and lease payments not included under operating activities in IFRS reporting means CNTMF has been just above break-even, much lower than the reported figure.* **Cash:** Q3 $12.1M to Q4 $10.5M *Drop here as positive OCF was offset by $1.5M in CapEx and $2.4M in lease obligation payments. Debt stands at $61.4M*

nassau_rip

They are almost non existent in Ohio, no NY, no IL., MI, MA, CA (although Cresco slimmed down CA they are still operational in the state) The two have very little overlap minus FL, PA.

nassau_rip

A few Q's doesn't make a long term trend. They have huge markets that are on the verge of opening up (OH,PA,FL, maybe NY)

MissiontwoMars

FL is a bit of an outlier due to surging insurance costs or outright inability to insure due to skyrocketing rebuilding costs. Actuarial tables say one big hurricane would cost the insurers billions due to those costs.

jeopardy_loser

Just read an article today about how realtors in FL are lowering home prices because inventory is starting to pile up, fwiw

theduderino38

Agree completely Ohio will be huge for them and they’ve made huge progress in IL PA FL

JustAlotOfPain

Not sure where you’re at bro, but here in FL, every parcel of land in our county is being cleared and turned into a cookie cutter house on the daily. 5 just on my street alone in the last 6 months and they all sold within days of completion. Housing market is BOOMING

muttur

I am trying to downsize from a 4000 sq ft with a 2.9% APR and can’t find anyone to buy the fucking house. I have a rental across town I’m trying to move back into and downsize but at least in FL, no one is buying anything.

Perfect__Crime

You underestimate Karen's because that is probably 30% of the population in the USA. And these things are considered 'new' where I live in FL and they are selling like crazy at our neighborhood shop.

NickSicilianu

I hear you, I am in the same boat. Electrician for 10 years, roofer for 2, and painter for 1. Machine operation for Pick and place machines at a PCB local factory here in FL and never earned a decent amount in my life. Zero retirement savings, no healthcare insurance, and all my saving which I invested into my startup, that I lost my investors due to my dad being diagnosed with cancer and me not able to progress the project. So I understand, yet, I wouldn’t give up my dignity and honor for a lousy million dollar, my dignity and honors is all I got left at this point.

Fantastic-Secret-420

Earnings will not move this sector, at all. Only big markets PA, FL and S3 will move the sector forward.

ScapedOut

I got down voted for being right, I see. Stay mad I bought 3 houses in 2020 in FL and they have all doubled in price

dripping-dice

I’m in FL

ohwowverycool69

Going to FL next week. First time. Melbourne Beach area nice enough?

Illustrious_Post_519

Bahaha! “Don’t tread on me” meets “puff puff pass”. FL is confusing. Maybe weed will help the trigger happy crazies to forget what the hell they were planing to do in the first place. Hey Ron, instead of burning books and supporting prohibition of weed, start regulating the real epidemic in this country and band crazies from owning guns.

african_cheetah

FL electricity price per KWh = $0.16. FL gas price per gallon = $3.09. 1 gallon into KWh = 33.7KWh. FL gas price per KWh = $0.09/kWH. Gas is almost half the price of electricity for equivalent energy. The reverse is true in WA.

african_cheetah

CA and WA are the big EV adopters due to the high gas prices. WA has the lowest electricity prices due to hydrodams. In Texas and FL it doesn’t make sense to own an EV from economic perspective. Gas is cheaper than electricity.

TeamVegas780

Tampa, FL. I've seen one in a mall parking lot before, and that's it

Queens-kid

Did I say that? Im saying those houses in particular are all owned outright. I know this because I live here in FL and have sources. You are making assumptions. Like I said. Believe what you will.

CLYDEFR000G

Since it’s still so far away timeline wise it makes me happier than if it said there is just enough votes. If the votes might be there already no more money will be thrown at this. If articles keep getting published saying they are 10% short , 7% short etc then the cannabis companies will likely throw more money at grass roots going out and convincing voters in FL

ChemicalMedicine4523

Only Boomers respond to polls in FL. It’ll pass.

HandsomeChubaka

What do you guys/gals make of the two MM articles that say the FL cannabis ballot initiative doesn’t have the support to pass in November. Any cause for concern?

nateyp123

Haha , well I’m not going anywhere pleasant in VA. But I do live somewhere nice in FL. Come on down

747ER

“On the 7th of February, 2024, Indonesia AirAsia flight QZ154, an Airbus A320-216, suffered a cabin pressurization issue while en route at FL360. The flight made an emergency descent to FL100 and continued to the destination, Bangkok, where it landed 53 minutes later. The aircraft was ferried to Jakarta on February 8 and experienced a similar incident on the following regular flight on the 8th of February, 2024.”

thedmob

My guess is GTI has the lowest export FL of the tier 1s plus he is already very heavy GTI.

thedmob

The top 3 all have major exposure to FL. Probably has changed his thesis leading up to FL AU ballot…

CannaVestments

Definitely agree with your general sentiment- solid operators who have chose to enter markets at smart times ahead of adult-use initiatives. Definitely trades cheap too. Like other Tier 2s, they do have a decent amount of debt and sale&leaseback, granted nothing overly concerning in my view. Margins have never been great relative to peers but they run a lean cost operation so cash flow ends up decent. I think a primary counter argument is that there is less growth left in their footprint relative to a name like AYR for example who is big in FL and PA. 28 of their 36 active stores are already adult-use, with only Ohio (5stores which should turn rec in July of this year) and Pennsylvania (3 stores going to 6) being still medical. M&A could obviously open up new markets though so not necessarily a permanent problem For whatever reason too, the MSOS ETF guys also don't like them so only own a very small amount of Ascend so they don't have what is a large source of buying volume

CannaVestments

We cover the Tier 1s specifically in these quarterly reviews, not something against AYR specifically. Big FL footprint and lower float yes, definitely have a lot of debt though and took on massive dilution in refinancing it

thedmob

I thought that would happen but I also thought FL would be a catalyst and we would be running on hype last week and this week and not so.

thedmob

Agree with the above. Tier 1 MSOs havnt actually diluted that much. But they are likely to dilute some more if prices go up. I personally think to get to ATH we need some of the following catalysts - macro bull run continues - safe - garland memo - FL/PA go AU (will affect some companies more than others)

Broke4Life

I think the SPAC boys in FL fucked him over a bit or he was fucking them over and they in turn fucked him, point is there was some fuckery going on. He didn't get full access right away was my understanding.

hz42069

I have been following Frontier communications for some time. In early 2020 I was considering buying distressed junk bonds at 50cents on the dollar because hey they have a monopoly on fiber internet in FL they aren't going anywhere am I right? Well I eventually realized they were going to be missing payments and defaulting on the debt. Then covid happened almost entirely too perfectly at the last minute they were bailed out by PPE money. Since then they have restructured the debt and reissued new stock. However they are still riddled with insurmountable debt. I called to cancel recently as my intro rate for 500mb fiber internet had ballooned over 100$/month. When I asked to cancel effective Friday they transferred me to a company I would layer apply to work with. They offered me 29.99$/ month in perpetuity plus a large bill credit and even a new router. Obviously I accepted. I had been teaching middle school math. Over the summer I started a business I had been practicing for about three years in preperation of playing blackjack professionally in casinos. It was so successful that I didn't return to teaching I made more than a years salary in three months. Obviously I had some major swings up and down and ended the year only up 25k the equivalent to what I would have made in the six months teaching. Back to the drawing board I started looking for careers more aligned with my business school education BA with spec in Marketing. I came across a marketing group who consults and does marketing for Frontier. The interview process was full of deception and lies. But I liked the boss and the office atmosphere. I liked that I would get an opportunity to use my experience and education. The job posting was for 55k$-65k$. The first interview magically turned into a group interview. One of the candidates asked about salary and was told it was based on experience and education. The hours were going to be 11am-8pm m-f and 10-5 Saturday. The second interview they explained I would get 50$ for every service signed up. Fair enough. Still same answer to salary. Finally call with offer everyone starts at 400$/week. I was dumfounded. That doesn't even qualify as a low ball. It's a no-ball. I was disappointed as I was actually looking forward to working with the boss who offered the position. I said that is a lot less than I was expecting. He asked what I expected to which I replied oh just the amount you put in the job listing. I said that if he paid 1250$/week for three months I would work more than the hours requested sell a ton of services learn the business and be ready to take over a new branch and team and switch to full commission at the end of three months. He said he would call back in 24-48 hours. Ghosted... I bought 37 puts on Frontier stock in my retirement account. https://preview.redd.it/df3peaco8duc1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c9f7c2ce96aae8f82d98952058301ae4b114c5ca

livefromheaven

I'm with you - federal reform is badly needed but in the end its all about profitability. There's a reason $GTBIF has been so resilient. FL legalization alone would be huge for major operators.

DifferentWindow1436

Tilray is a penny stock with a terrible performance. Why not TCNNF or a picks and shovels company? MSOS I can understand. Look at the underlying holdings (note: TCNNF which I own is 12% or so). Just understand the stock prices are heavily dependent on the regulatory/legislative landscape. If the DEA reschedules I believe we are in for a fun ride. SAFE is the other peice to watch. And for TCNNF - Florida's ballot for recreational because they are heavily FL weighted.

Evergladescity

Are you a 200lb + plus single mom in FL

numb_digger

Is foot locker (FL) a buy at these prices?

Great_Reaction3629

Pricing could (and I think likely) will be different for Med vs Rec. As a FL rec patient that's my gut feeling so I'll be keeping my card

Rare-ish_Bird

They always report after the bell because they're based in California. Could be the CEO/CFO will be in FL or Europe that week, so they scheduled around the timezone. Probably means nothing for earnings.

pmekonnen

I think FL and Arizona may have something to say about his win

NextTrillion

You can’t compare their share price increase because there’s a multitude of factors that determine how the dead cat bounce will be played. If they were all healthy companies with relatively similar growth, like many of the MSOs, then sure. But the classic LPs are all over the place. If you look at some bigger MSOs, they’re all up about 100% over the last 52 weeks. TRUL is up a little more (130%) but it’s possible that FL legalization going on the ballot had an impact there, or that it was simply a little more down before the run up.

Key-Pass3701

True. My grandkids cannot gain access to their Uniform Gift to Minors account at Schwab until they are age 25. They were living in FL when the accounts were created at Schwab.

moondawg8432

Were they the guys in FL from the big short?

ApostleThirteen

Florida is one of those states that are completely vulnerable to a black market explosion. When companies like Curaleaf can't handle a densely populated state like MA, FL is going to be next to impossible, especially with the climate. Those little dispensary bottles are going to need some kind of dates or other markings on them, or they're about to be repeatedly refilled for transportation purposes, just like any other state where AAU and MU are both legal.