FT

SquirrelPlower69

I only have 100k at age 34, seeing shit like this is pretty demotivating since I've been working FT for a number of years now

CloudSlydr

I’m not a FT trader but if I was I’d be looking to replace at least 150% of current salary (because asking an average year to be better than average or perfect is a fools game), plus health insurance plus 401K contributions they’d no longer be making if I left my job, that I’d make to a SEP IRA or another vehicle (you need to consider replacing salary plus fringe benefits), plus have 2 years expenses in the bank plus 10k emergency fund. I would *not* consider FT trading without being properly capitalized.

nvidia_rtx5000

What makes you think it is overpriced? It's future P/E is like the lowest it's been in like forever, no? I'm pretty sure big tech (M$FT, Meta, Google etc) have all said they are continuing to spend big on AI next year....so that's at least another year of NVDA revenue and profit increases IMO.

Methsi

Until you see this FT or WSJ notification.

Panda-Feisty

Not working for the FT anymore.

Canary_Earth

Or even let us move the taskbar around. I'll do it for $20! Hire me M$FT!

5uckmyd1ckb1t4

>Biden administration revokes export licenses that allowed Intel, [$INTC](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24INTC&src=cashtag_click), and Qualcomm, [$QCOM](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24QCOM&src=cashtag_click), to provide semiconductors to China's Huawei, per FT.

ArnoldRothsteinsAlt

Im not getting into specifics on anything else like net worth, trades/expirations/etc because in the past it has resulted in stalker or cringe outcomes re: weirdos on Reddit but I’ll say I’ve been doing this (trading options) for about 12 years now and trading in general for close to 15? I also have a FT job in finance but things are slow lately. I’m in my 30s and just have this place as the last bastion of my immature youth. Outside of this place you’d actually find me pretty likable and somewhat lame/boring.

WildConsideration376

Your level of stupidity amazes me..do you know how much HVAC technicians earn in Seattle?..I trade stocks FT for last ten years..I can give you a ride to work

coweatyou

From the FT's (much better) article on this: "Borgers has expanded rapidly to become auditor to hundreds of small and microcap companies — including the former US president’s Trump Media & Technology Group — but the SEC said that three-quarters of its audits were faulty." Basically they threw together audits for shit startups and cryptos looking to scam investors and became a top 10 audit firm in 15 years doing it. [https://www.ft.com/content/16947980-2da2-49f3-980c-401c80cb36a9](https://www.ft.com/content/16947980-2da2-49f3-980c-401c80cb36a9)

Zestyclose-Bar758

Short $FT Footlocker

Zestyclose-Bar758

SHORT Footlocker (FT)?????

Zestyclose-Bar758

Opinion on shorting opportunity of Footlocker (FT)? With earnings coming up late this month and general downside of this company.

Dry_Perception_1682

This is a fantastic report - exactly what the market and economy needs in order to drive to a few rate cuts later this year. My favorite data point this month is that FULL-TIME EMPLOYMENT SOARED nearly 1m jobs. (Obviously there's lots of fluctuation here and I take it as just a data point, similar to what I did when FT employment fell some over a few months). [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12500000](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12500000)

LiquefactionAction

Audits aren't a magic bullet and there's barely enough staff to do audit the internal audit committees (which can be corrupt) these days. See also Enron, Kraft, Lehman, AIG, Wells Fargo, WorldCom, etc. I don't know exactly what they're doing, but pretty much everyone involved has a criminal background, extremely shady, constantly late in filing, and they already had one big SEC scandal a few years ago and still are likely not complying with the order. Could be some kind of low-key fabricating sales, could be doing some kind of laundering or other accounting fraud -- nothing would surprise me if there's a big FT or Forbes story that pops in a few years. Would you be surprised?? But their business model is poorly run and definitely not very efficient. They were basically paying well over KBB prices for used cars that weren't even functioning or severely damaged and then trying to turn around and resell them for less than they paid.

WickedWickedPissah

Maybe seek an internship. Not quite qualified for a FT position at Wendys.

RagingBearBull

Im starting to think all the "guest" on CBNC are just actors at this point. Mainly because its the same people that you see on Bloomberg, CNBC, FT, Fox Business.

ElonTaxiDriver

The New York Stock Exchange is polling participants on the possibility of being able to trade stocks 24/7, per FT

hoobaacheche

The New York Stock Exchange is polling participants on the possibility of being able to trade stocks 24/7, per FT GG

corniefish

I guess if you wanted a ROTH in a retirement acct beyond the annual IRA contribution, just go with your employer plan. Especially if you have Fidelity. I’m fortunate to have a side gig with the solo 401k and a FT job with a 403b, so I can contribute double the annual 401k limit. My 403b also has the Roth and solo 401k doesn’t. But I need to mitigate taxes in order to save that much so I don’t. Also my employer plan is Empower (they bought Prudential’s retirement arm, so it’s going around!), which has some icky index funds and not very many.

AP9384629344432

You may know me as one of the 'small cap bros' because of how much I tout small cap value. But I'd like to be clear about what I don't believe. There are two articles to read from the FT, [one from their Alphaville blog](https://www.ft.com/content/abfbf19e-f963-4c1b-b69e-7bef8896e8cd), and the other in the [second half of this Unhedged article](https://www.ft.com/content/a613d015-4dac-4930-bcee-bb456247c99f). I'm not going to summarize every graph/statistic (which is abnormal for my longer posts). But some points: - In the following commentary, when I refer to 'factor', I mean some characteristic of a stock that is conceptually distinct from other existing factors and is a empirically significant predictor of returns (holding constant those other factors). Examples: Size (Big versus Small), Value (vs. Growth), Quality (vs. Junk), Momentum (vs. a lack thereof), correlation with market (beta), etc. This does *not* apply to a single stock, but rather a wider class of stocks. (It's a statistical result) - In the US, **there is no premium for small caps** empirically. Depending on your dataset, time horizon, etc. It was once a stylized fact that everyone agreed upon (you are compensated for holding these riskier stocks that are harder to research, have high trading costs / frictions, etc.) But nowadays it just isn't showing up in the data. You can read both FT articles as to reasons why (PE funds buying out quality, a regulatory/technological trends favoring megacaps in the US specifically, abitrage). - Also, when we talk about the size premium, we do NOT mean any premium due to simply having higher market beta. It means holding constant your volatility relative to the market, is there a premium for holding small cap stocks? For example, if you just invest in a leveraged S&P 500 ETF, that is tilting ONE factor precisely, market beta. - However, what's fascinating is that the *size premium does exist robustly in other geographies*. There's something unique about the US equity market in which size doesn't give you a premium. Perhaps its the tech tilt. Or that trading is just far more developed in the US and the size premium was arbitraged away but this hasn't happened yet internationally. Or the accessing real-time information is tougher outside of the US, in that it's like the 1980s in other countries when it comes to researching their small caps. - Cliff Asness at AQR has written tons of articles going back decades on this topic. Small caps as an asset class in the US only have a premium if you strip out the junk (i.e., require an intersection of factor tilts including size, value, quality). Takeaways: - No I don't believe in tilting small caps as an asset class on their own. I think most of the concerns people typically give about small cap ETFs are true: they *are* filled with junk, they *are* more exposed to rate hikes, they *have* underperformed. But that's why I don't invest in a generic market cap weighted small cap ETF. - However, I do find it encouraging that the size premium does persist internationally, although again I prefer to combine the factors together. - Like I've argued before, these statistical facts should not be used to justify individual stock selection on their own. No matter the asset class, there's a huge dispersion in the performance of individual equities, and any broader empirical outperformance is not going to be relevant to your individual stock thesis. So when I buy individual small cap coal companies, which are obvious examples of small cap value stocks, my other beliefs on small cap value ETFs (which include coal) have NO relevance. - The best way to summarize my belief: I believe in small cap quality value momentum ETFs.

PaulKagame69

You my friend have made it on the FT, congrats

jello_0

Is anyone else praying to the 4/19 gods for mercy and/or possible blessings? 420 FT... [W | L] (TBD)

Gambled4MyRangeRover

> All these trades are executed using my phone while walking to the meetings on a very busy and demanding 8-5 PM, FT job 😂

vortex30-the-2nd

I give you 1-2 weeks before a meeting causes you to loses massively on a trade, and then you start questioning whether your full-time job is even really worth it and if instead you should become a full-time trader so that never happens again... The number of trades I made when working FT that some stupid shit pulled my attention away from and then I lost when I could have made out big... It will happen to you too!!

BlitzAuraX

A high % of these jobs are government jobs. So it's just the government hiring these workers. Probably more inefficient hirings as a result of this. I don't think you understand how inflation works. Inflation is a yoy measurement. So if they're quoting 3.5%, it means it's 3.5% higher than it was last year. So even if the inflation was say, 7% in March of 2023, it doesn't mean it's getting cheaper because it's still 3.5% higher than 0%. Also, a lot of these jobs you're seeing are PT jobs. BLS data said they lost nearly 2 million FT jobs compared to last year.

BlueTrin2020

What’s a FT job? 😂

greckorooman

"very busy and demanding FT job" lmfao it just screams insecurity

Rebelcr7

I want to invest in only companies with dirty tickers. Make an EFT with the tickers on the board plus bbc, call it DegE(n)FT

Advanced-Speaker-729

I was right aswell, gold took a dump eventually. I don’t understand there must be some serious clog poppers piling into cocoa. It is actually sad what a few FT BB and Reuters articles can do to the market. 

Useful_Resource_9047

22,USA Full time employed, around 100k a year (FT job around 95k, side hustle around 5k) I have been maxing out my roth IRA, contributing up to the employer match(3%) every paycheck and the rest of my take home pay I put into my HYSA. I put around 4k a month into the HYSA and I currently have about 58k in there and counting. The interest in the account is currently 5.5% but it will reduce to 4.5% in a couple months (I am on a referall bonus) My question is should I take that money from the HYSA and put it into a taxable brokerage and track an index fund or ETF such as VOO, VTI etc? Or play it safer by having most of my cash in the HYSA. I have also been thinking about buying a car soon, the ones that I like alot are around the 40k mark. I would put 20k down and finance the rest. I still cant justify that purchase though so I have not done that yet. Any advice regarding my situation would be great. Thanks!

kuprenx

FT reports several large Taiwanese manufacturers are considering setting up a second headquarters overseas to ensure they can keep operating in the event of a Chinese attack.

Brembooo

FT 1000 company here, using SentinelOne, totally agree with u/Chest-Straight We've tested EDR market leaders, yet find SentinelOne the best solution out of them all, especially on Linux endpoints. Elastic Security is good 2nd choice. IMHO Crowd is terrible with support, marketing that they offer exploit mitigation, but there is none. Encryption protection is also weak, close to non-existant after 1+ month of testing ;)

Broke4Life

Well I launched two new companies in the last month, so I am slammed with those. I kept my FT job so we had financial security, so really, I don't see any changes anytime soon. Right now, I am always glad just to be home.

AP9384629344432

Headline / Post: "FT: Small caps suffer worst run against larger stocks in over 20 years". [Meanwhile one of my biggest holdings](https://i.imgur.com/2RUe40V.png)... If you're telling me this is small caps experiencing their *worst* run, what is 'normal run' or 'best' run going to look like? Am I going to see 50% returns? As I've been banging the table about for the last 1-2 years, you shouldn't invest in junk-filled indices that track the Russell 2K (up 17% over 1 year). Even the S&P 600 (+14% over 1 year) doesn't do that well either by comparison. Small cap growth is typically worse than small cap value. Turns out a little bit of 'active' (systematic) small cap stock selection does pretty well compared to fully passive small cap funds!

MelonHub


GodzillaPenis

CURLF exploring secondary listing in Europe -FT

OldPersonName

The FT numbers are down a little from a year ago, and up a little from 2 years ago. It seems like the appropriate thing to say is they're steady overall, which isn't necessarily a good thing. I have too many tabs open to manage on my phone, what do you see in March 2021 and 2020? The narrative has been that tech companies overhired during covid and are trimming back now. I see a handful of tech companies had 60,000 layoffs to date in 2024 sll by themselves. That all seems to follow that narrative.

Tower6011

>wow 6k people aren't full time anymore... whats that like .00004% of americans? Such a concern. We lost 6K FT jobs Feb - March, that's not a good jobs report. And from Jan - Mar we lost a total of 193K FT jobs.

mostly-amazing

They also had one of the greatest stables of athletes - Cam, Curry, and Brady. But the designs were atrocious and they let their athletes go off on their own branding with confusing models: [Curry 1 - Now, somewhat ironically cool.](https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR_LUjwBimWHOcWZE382FT-WHI1t4QgVJktWw7Jjs37Ag&s) [Cam Cross Trainers - Awful colors](https://sneakernews.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/under-armour-unveils-cam-newton-highlight-trainer-10.jpg) [TB12 is rebranded UA](https://hips.hearstapps.com/vader-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/1632842770-V5-1372512-001_BC.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.943xh;0,0.0154xh&resize=980:*) gear and [the shoes. JFC, the shoes.](https://cdn2.bigcommerce.com/server3500/jxr0taf/products/32865/images/160109/IMG_7136__85182.1596934855.800.800.jpg?c=2)

NoDiscussion9873

This. Think I read in FT Alphaville a while back, didn't they invest in a gold mine/prospect at some point aswell?! And issue share without normal voting rights... Good luck OP, but I don't see this working out well.

AluminiumCaffeine

Google up 2% AH, only thing I see is - "GOOGLE IS LOOKING AT OPTIONS INCLUDING ADDING CERTAIN AI-POWERED SEARCH FEATURES TO ITS PREMIUM SUBSCRIPTION SERVICES -FT"

AP9384629344432

Random datapoints for your Wednesday afternoon: (Each day I get up, check whatever I bookmarked in recent weeks, and decide, Hm I should bring this to show-and-tell on /r/stocks) ## On Auto Debt - [Approximately 52% of US households with children](https://i.imgur.com/4BU3tz2.jpeg) have auto debt. (34% of US households with no children) - [*Conditional* on having auto debt, the median amount is about $18K for US households with children](https://i.imgur.com/Qa0EI8Z.jpeg). (The 'No Children' households are actually pretty similar) Note that this time series is in 2022 dollars, so you can see it was actually worse in the 2000s. This is from the Fed's Survey of Consumer Finances I've been citing frequently, and these specific charts pointed out by Joseph Politano on Twitter. It's always fun to read the salty responses these kind of threads get. My favorite is "They only surveyed 0.005% of households, therefore this data is garbage." When you're sampling a dish you made, do you take a full plate or a little spoon to make your judgement? Thankfully we have made a lot of progress in figuring out how to sample populations to make effective inference since the 1800s. You can skip to "The Sampling Techniques" [in the main document](https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/october-2023-changes-in-us-family-finances-from-2019-to-2022.htm) if you want to see how it is conducted. They actually oversample racial minorities and geographically adjust their sampling for better coverage. So if there is major sampling error, it could very well be that the truth is even better than reported! ## European Valuation (Part 6 now?) - [European stocks have a forward P/E of 13.6 versus America's 21.](https://i.imgur.com/EbWXvmD.jpeg). This means European stocks are in the 59th percentile of their historic valuation while the US is in the 87th. (So US stocks are more expensive than currently only 13% of the time, and European stocks are more expensive 41% of the time). - Don't confuse this with the valuation *premium* that the US has to Europe. Yes, Europe is cheaper 59% of the time, but it is rarely ever as cheap as it is currently *compared to the US*. E.g., take US P/E ratios divided by European P/E ratios. [That exercise shows how abnormal the multiple compression has been for Europe compared to the US](https://i.imgur.com/uw1tHIw.jpeg). There isn't much reason (in my opinion) to think that European equities are so bad that they deserve a multi-decade discount of this magnitude. We're not simply dividing the stock index of US over that of Europe, we're comparing the P/E ratios, so you can't just say "US stocks did better because moar earnings." This ratio is saying "US stocks did better because investors like earnings moar in the US" than in Europe. - Mean reversion implies either Europe gets a valuation boost or the US gets a valuation hit. I'm unsure as to which is more likely. This could either come from earnings expansion or price falling. - If you contend this is just due to worse sector composition, [here is a sector by sector](https://i.imgur.com/9yThpxE.jpeg) comparison of forward P/E ratios from [the Economist.](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/03/24/as-markets-soar-should-investors-look-beyond-america) And graph of [cyclically adjusted P/E ratios by country/region](https://i.imgur.com/BacxrPL.jpeg). ## European GDP - From the FT: "The four biggest southern European economies have outgrown Germany by about 5 per cent since 2017, underlining the region’s two-speed recovery from recent shocks. Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece have collectively added more than €200bn of gross domestic product — more than the entire Portuguese economy — in price-adjusted terms over the past six years, while Germany’s GDP has expanded by only €85bn." [Graphic](https://i.imgur.com/PZnDxJS.png). - ["The gdp per capita of Haiti is $1748/year. This is closer to the EU ($37150) than the EU is to the US ($76399)"](https://twitter.com/snuppydogg/status/1768083341058662626) ## Miscellaneous - [Pretty interesting statistic: tech dinosaur DELL has actually outperformed AAPL over the last 5 years](https://i.imgur.com/0A2C1dI.png). It looks like they were barely profitable 5 years ago and staged a major turnaround. - [Someone on Twitter pointed out that not all serial acquirers do very well](https://i.imgur.com/76uoewR.jpeg)

dvdmovie1

FT article the other day about there being such a glut of panels that some people were using them as fences.

II-TANFi3LD-II

The Woodsmith mine project is risky, its success/profitability firstly depends on the market price of potash. The mine will need to operate under a demand constrained market environment, and does not want to oversupply the small market Potash currently has. And of course, there needs to be the customers for all that to happen. Potash isn't a silver bullet, its one of many fertilizers, there's competition. And potash isn't necessarily anything special, chemically speaking. If there's no growth for it's use as a feedstock, then it won't be a huge success. Some argue that since Potash makes up for a tiny proportion of the market simply due to its availability to mine, we don't know how the market will react when 13m tonnes is mined out the ground and put on the market. The long term bullish vision is that farming needs to keep up with the globally growing calorie uptake, thus there will be a future consistent demand for new and more fertilizers. There's a good FT article called "Anglo American’s high-stakes bet on a new way to feed the world" you'd be interested in. (I can't get a link at this time).

AP9384629344432

Okay fine: ## More about the UK Discount Now, you thought the FT (and by extension, I) was done on the UK discount? No, [Unhedged has a part 3](https://www.ft.com/content/b13b1f4f-12fd-4292-b541-1eadf289dc78). A manager from Fidelity International’s UK Fund sent in a [set of apple-to-apple examples of cheap UK stocks](https://i.imgur.com/UL4HEB3.png) relative to the US equivalent. (The screenshot is unfortunately very low quality). The examples are : "Banking, Standard Chartered and Citi; in Homebuilding, Cairn Homes and Lennar; in Tobacco, Imperial Brands and Altria; in defence contracting, Babcock International and Lockheed Martin." For each of them, the valuation is much more attractive for the UK domiciled company, despite often having superior fundamental metrics such as better revenue/EPS growth or similar debt / ROEs. Another reader made the case for Barclays, which "is trading at a 50 per cent discount to book value, whereas JPMorgan Chase, for example, trades at an 80 per cent premium to book." His case is conditional on a successful turnaround driven by a 3 year plan featuring bigger shareholder returns, cost cutting and divestments, and a business reorganization into 5 parts. The FT article links to 3 more articles on the Barclays play if you are interested. [Link 1](https://www.ft.com/content/6e126a5c-a2e9-4e54-8f94-d40f6b5ec3d5). [Link 2](https://www.ft.com/content/a72e6801-77d6-4e2d-a62b-101d1bfbd651). [Link 3](https://www.ft.com/content/7d2e3c82-282b-4c08-938d-03a7378efea8). ## .... Greece? Alternatively, you could just not buy banks... Or you could go even more degen and invest in [Greek banks](https://www.ft.com/content/52b79051-63f0-4568-b7a9-6de759a0483) which are apparently staging a comeback. In fact, its [whole market is](https://i.imgur.com/sbLFBur.png), beating the S&P 500 in recent years (up 40% last year). The author points out > This recovery has benefited its banks, in particular. The sector has cut its cost base to well below the European average. Non-performing loans have fallen to 5 per cent, down from a peak of perhaps 40 per cent. Returns on equity are in the double digits, trending towards the European average. This, coupled with valuations at about 6 times forward consensus earnings, and a 15 per cent discount to the European average, explains why investors have been so keen on recent stake sales. The Greek economy is dependent on tourism to sustain its recent comeback. But it will also benefit from "EU funds worth 17 per cent of GDP earmarked for its reconstruction and recovery, and a highly regarded government in place, the country may well produce sunny newsflow in the coming year, too." Maybe I'm too online, but I'm not sure why the FT chose to insult the Greek government in an otherwise glowing article. I've written about the Greek turnaround a long time back but can't find my comment. [But here's a May 2023 editorial pointing out how much has changed](https://www.ft.com/content/5a2c265f-58f2-424d-a16e-3f89d9fd18e6). Including a recent budget surplus, a 20% reduction in the debt/GDP ratio, and an economy 6.4% above pre-pandemic level. The deleveraging has been so successful that it was [raised to investment grade](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-18/greece-plans-bond-sale-of-up-to-10-billion-after-return-to-investment-grade) and is now weighing issuing $10B in bonds to finance 2024 needs, reduce "reliance on treasury bills", and pay back bailout loans. [You can see its debt repayment schedule](https://i.imgur.com/BeIq8F7.png) and [credit rating comeback here](https://i.imgur.com/yLSFInD.png). It even gets lower credit premiums than Italy since May 2023 (through December 2023, not sure about most recent quarter)! What great headlines! Unfortunately it came at the cost of a horrid decade of austerity and deleveraging, causing [GDP per capita to stagnate](https://i.imgur.com/mg9ZHHz.png) relative to Europe. But that's what happens after a debt crisis.

Gewoongary

Source: FT Ajax plans to dismiss chief executive for suspected insider trading LOL PROBABLY THE ONLY EXAMPLE OF INSIDER TRANSACTION THAT ALSO LOST MONEY. he should be made a mod here

AP9384629344432

Weekend Data Compilation: ## US Credit Cards [Source: Ben Carlson](https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/03/how-bad-is-credit-card-usage-in-america/) and Federal Reserve. - [More Americans use credit cards](https://i.imgur.com/UyRuYEK.png) over time - [Delinquencies rising above pre-pandemic levels and nearing GFC levels for credit card debt.](https://i.imgur.com/t2F35Kk.png) Before you panic (or celebrate, a perverse phenomenon apparent on financial forums), note that [most household debt is mortgage debt](https://i.imgur.com/R2arjVV.jpeg). The earlier chart shows mortgage delinquencies in long term decline. The GFC saw simultaneous delinquencies in credit card debt, mortgages, and auto. - [New bankruptcies/foreclosures remain historically low](https://i.imgur.com/8nTiw4Y.png) - [Only 45% of Americans households actually carry credit card debt](https://i.imgur.com/NeTXsZm.png). By 'carrying debt', I mean holding a balance that is collecting interest, rather than simply using a credit card and paying it on time. - The [(conditional) median balance is $2700](https://i.imgur.com/1eesWnP.png). Conditional refers to only people with a non-zero balance. That is, of the 45% of Americans with a credit card balance (accumulating interest), half of them have a balance less than $2700 (the median), and half a balance more than $2700. The other 55% of Americans do not have a credit card balance, hence are omitted from the conditional median. - The conditional median was over $4K prior to the GFC (in 2022 dollars). [See page 25 of the Fed's latest version of the Survey of Consumer Finances](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scfindex.htm) report for the full details. ## On European Banks - [From FT](https://www.ft.com/content/d181a996-780b-440a-9e84-4a1a18cae214): "The Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index reached its highest level for six years [...], and is up 34 per cent over the past year. According to analysts at Barclays, the continent’s banks are outperforming US rivals for the first time in more than a decade in return on equity terms." [Chart of index](https://i.imgur.com/AcVKD4q.png). - On that previous point, European banks have higher ROEs (averaging 13% recently) but I believe that is due to higher leverage ratios. - European banks get a massive discount relative to US banks ([Bloomberg graphic](https://i.imgur.com/Y3EuiSL.png)). "To address this valuation gap and to win back investors spooked by dividend bans and windfall taxes since the pandemic, European lenders have promised to return more than €120bn to shareholders this year, through €74bn of dividends and €47bn of share repurchases. This is a **54 per cent increase** on the previous year’s capital returns and far *higher than every year since at least 2007*, according to figures compiled by UBS" - Graph of [payout ratios to come](https://i.imgur.com/IXevQft.png) from [January 2024 FT article](https://www.ft.com/content/69ffbe2b-05a4-4468-9879-e241564e4b75). For the first time *ever*, [shares outstanding are falling](https://i.imgur.com/2T7K7rp.png). - A [Dec. '23 FT article](https://www.ft.com/content/abddc872-fc76-4fff-8e0f-29157f1d9b1d) pointed out that 73% of European banks are trading below book value (and have for more than a decade). ## UK Stocks - The FT ran a series of articles on UK stocks. [Article 1](https://www.ft.com/content/be46c2c3-1f1f-42e3-912b-b75624dedcbd) which dropped the 48% bombshell, then [the Unhedged's skeptical response](https://www.ft.com/content/80d7f1de-dcb7-46c9-be5a-32b73c9c071e), and then [the Unhedged's followup](https://www.ft.com/content/b78df9e6-0569-4821-95df-0a87d3979ca7) which provided the regression I was [inquiring about](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1blo77h/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_mar_23_2024/kw8z0ge/) and also [updated about here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1bprc4y/rstocks_daily_discussion_options_trading_thursday/kx01sft/). - The first Unhedged article posed 3 hypotheses on why the discount is so large. The first two are the value tilts and smaller market caps of UK stocks, both of which are generally unappreciated by the market in recent years. Third is the fact that the US premium to ex-US stocks in general rising, hence in particular the premium to the UK is rising. - That Unhedged article then asked its readers, "If the UK stock indices are so staggeringly cheap, where are the staggeringly cheap UK companies?" Yet another FT article [tried to answer this question](https://www.ft.com/content/c1b1167c-9ddb-4882-b1db-d0a9ddc04643) (see comments too). Note that I personally don't pick *individual* stocks outside of the US, though, due to both brokerage limitations and lack of knowledge. - Ever since the GFC, productivity has [viciously stalled](https://i.imgur.com/iK17O6y.jpeg) in the UK (and Europe more generally). You aren't really seeing a clear Brexit effect here, interestingly, in contrast to the UK/US discount which clearly shows a slide around the time of the Brexit decision. (Stock market != economy) ## Commodities - [Traders apparently turning more bullish on copper](https://www.ft.com/content/c3c66359-6bdb-45cb-8ddd-663f10c1d3d9) - [Lots of new oil and gas projects are coming online](https://www.ft.com/content/7b840e9e-a159-446e-872f-6d3d34127e1d). "At least 20 new oil and gasfields reached final investment decisions worldwide last year, totalling 8bn barrels of oil equivalent in reserves, according to a tracker released today by the Global Energy Monitor, an environmental research group. GEM expects this figure to grow nearly fourfold by the end of the decade, with another 31bn boe across 64 new fields permitted by 2030. " - Source of new projects: [led by America and Guyana.](https://i.imgur.com/DKq2wfF.png) - And where [new discoveries are popping up](https://i.imgur.com/izgHPc9.png)

Rivercitybruin

i read FT interview with Peltz last weekend... seemed more anti-progressive than useful financial suggestions.. one question: : have Marvel's very progessive films been disasters? if so, he has a financial point but fighting the progressive movement seems like banging your head on a wall for Peltz.. i

AP9384629344432

[You can read the full analysis here](https://www.rathbones.com/knowledge-and-insight/investment-update-non-patriotic-case-uk-equities). And if you control+F for 'forward' you see that indeed he is referring to forward P/Es. The previous FT article using MSCI UK vs MSCI US showed a 48% discount. This guy is probably using a different index.

AP9384629344432

[A few days ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1blo77h/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_mar_23_2024/kw8z0ge/), I wrote about the UK discount. I said that what I'd like to see is a regression that controls for sectoral composition and other fundamentals to see if the UK is cheap for a reason. Well turns out 2 days later the [FT's Unhedged](https://www.ft.com/content/b78df9e6-0569-4821-95df-0a87d3979ca7) comes to the rescue: [someone did the regression](https://i.imgur.com/VCSSUZ6.png). The 33% discount of UK to US stocks (slightly lower than other estimates of 48% discount) becomes roughly a 27% discount controlling for sectors and 22% if you also add controls for revenue growth, ROIC, ex-UK revenue exposure, interest coverage. Point being, the discount persists even if you account for the worse fundamental environment in the UK. There is also a discount to Europe, though it shrinks to only about 10% once you perform the controls. I think there's a mispricing here. Not a 50% off one, but say a 25% one. Meaning I think the UK's multiple can rise another 25% (or equivalently, the US' multiple can fall 25%, or some combination) to correct this.

BIGPOTHEAD

They have to cut rates or fund exposed commercial real-estate banks. Amazon about to break leases on a lot of SQ FT space around the country. Shit could escalate

AP9384629344432

[Opened up the FT to see the big headline on the widespread suffering in US small cap vs large caps](https://i.imgur.com/Isj4OAh.png). Decided to pull out the portfolio backtest and compare AVUV/AVDV since their inception (both September 2019) to the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested. [To my (genuine) surprise, AVUV actually is in the lead](https://i.imgur.com/f8QyhKt.png)!! And [the same chart with QQQ include](https://i.imgur.com/fnzzBhA.png), which is obviously crushing everyone. [AVUV is trailing the S&P 500 by about 4%](https://i.imgur.com/junQflK.png). Turns out with a little systematic quality filtering (like SCHD) but applied to small caps, you can do pretty well for yourself. And maybe the R2K / S&P 600 are just un-investible? What's especially nice is that despite this 5 year outperformance vs SPY, AVUV (/ small cap value) in general is still very cheap historically speaking while the S&P and QQQ are slightly to very rich compared to historic valuations.

dufusmembrane

07:52 AM EDT, 03/25/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares were down more than 4% and 3% respectively in Monday's premarket trading following news of tightened Chinese rules on microchip imports. Chinese regulators have issued new restrictions meant to phase out foreign-made microchips, the Financial Times reported on Monday. China wants to reduce the use of hardware powered by American chips at government institutions, the FT said. The rules on microprocessor procurement, along with efforts to discourage the use of Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows operating system and other imported software, are meant to spur the adoption of Chinese options, the report said. **The FT said the rules were first issued in December.**

Agreeable_Net_4325

Dubiousness of FT or not we are prob going to war soon. 

istockusername

Linux was brought up in the FT article.

DeathSquirl

Those jobs were never meant to be a FT careers.

AP9384629344432

[This is a pretty remarkable chart](https://i.imgur.com/m8f8wrZ.png) on the forward valuation discount of 47% (worst since 1988) in the UK relative to the US over time. [Here is the FT article](https://www.ft.com/content/be46c2c3-1f1f-42e3-912b-b75624dedcbd) from where that chart is from. Now before you immediately respond with, "Of course it is cheaper, the UK stock market is basically all dinosaur industries: banking, telecom, energy." I've actually [posed a question on this before](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1636wgq/is_the_uk_stock_market_mispriced_a_look_at/) and got many assertions that it's all about the type of industry and Brexit. Fair enough, but I'm not disputing *that* the UK deserves a valuation discount. I'm questioning whether that discount should be 48%! From 2010 - 2016, why was the UK only 5-15% as 'bad' as the US? Then Brexit occurred and a vicious downward spiral occurred. But the UK stock market is a bunch of multinational corporations with most of their revenue outside of the UK, a relatively tiny country based on GDP (we're talking 2-3%, lower than Japan's 4% or the US' 15%). So even if Brexit hurts the domestic UK economy, this should have minimal implications for Shell, Glencore, Astra Zeneca, British American Tobacco, right? And even within sectors there is still a large discount. Compare the valuation that Shell or BP (7 to 8) get compared to Exxon Mobil or Chevron (both roughly 12). Though pharma seems more similar: GSK has a forward P/E of 10, Astra Zeneca 15, while we have Pfizer at (12) or JNJ (15) or Merck (14). But don't forget about Eli Lilly at 61. What would resolve my suspicion that this is a major mispricing? If I had access to the data, I'd want to run a simple regression model: Obtain for both the US and UK their sectoral allocations, earnings growth, profit margins, forward P/E, and then compute the (relative) difference for all of these over time. Then regress that valuation discount on the differences in sector allocation, earnings growth, margins, and to be safe also control for currency depreciation. Then assess how much of the valuation discount remains unexplained by this model, i.e., due to investor preferences about the country not reflected by basic fundamentals / industry composition / currency changes. I'm sure someone has done this exercise, but probably not shared publicly.

AP9384629344432

I don't use Facebook/Instagram either but apparently half the global population does (and the company continues to post 3-10% growth in DAU/MAUs still). So anecdotes really don't mean much here. They are achieving double digit revenue growth with 35% net income margins, roughly $47B net cash position that can be deployed to buybacks/dividends. Right now they are still spending heavily on capex, so they still have the ability to rapidly increase FCF should they cut down. I also view Zuckerberg as more ruthless on cost discipline in hiring vs. say Google. META is and has been a leader in AI (especially as they used it to sidestep Apple's privacy policies). There is still [growth to come in advertising](https://twitter.com/RihardJarc/status/1762523531722551424), as META hosts 200M small/medium sized businesses but only 10M of them advertise. A strong US or global macro will propel spending further. [This same account I linked also posts interesting third-party data](https://twitter.com/RihardJarc/status/1768632116789555417) showing an acceleration in AMZN/META intention to spend among advertisers. (Look at the 2024 column vs 2023 column--of course META will have lower growth numbers than some of its tiny competitors). ARPU's should rise as the world gets wealthier. > On META vs. TikTok ([FT article](https://www.ft.com/content/7db1c1b3-5a61-4dee-a922-ade8b9c77522)) > > - [App downloads now favoring Instagram](https://i.imgur.com/YUffpMx.png) > - "Instagram’s monthly active users reached 1.47bn, with a rise of 13mn in the final quarter of 2023, according to Sensor Tower. TikTok’s active users reached 1.12bn, with a decline of 12mn in the final three months of last year." [Graphic](https://i.imgur.com/vKKv3VL.png). > - "However, TikTok continues to gain better engagement from its more than 1bn active users worldwide. Users spent an average of 95 minutes on TikTok in the fourth quarter of last year, compared with 62 minutes on Instagram, 30 minutes on X and 19 minutes on Snapchat" The [WSJ also recently reported](https://i.imgur.com/MFWvWrB.png) on the slowdown in TikTok, a trend which should favor Reels (and also YouTube Shorts). Anyway, the question is, is all this priced in at a 25x forward P/E? I think they'll easily grow into their valuation in the short-term. Granted, if I were so confident wouldn't I have bought some recently? My last purchase was at $130 a share... But I see little reason to sell at today's prices. Now if they start posting Apple-like growth, then yeah I'm out.

Upset-Kaleidoscope45

I wish I started earlier. I am 44 now. I started investing in stocks and index funds when I was 31. But I've been working FT since I was 24 (with a break for grad school for three years) including several jobs that had retirement plans that I never took advantage of. I was working PT before that, since I was 15 years old. I wish I had started investing 10 years before I started.

Buzzed27

I fly Allegiant and Spirit fairly commonly. I've brought a midsized duffle/travel bag with me EVERY time. Not a huge bag, but a bag large enough to fit two pairs of pants (an extra pair of jeans plus slacks/khakis) and enough underwear/socks/shirts for ~5 days and my laptop bag. https://www.amazon.com/Gonex-Canvas-Expandable-Weekend-Overnight/dp/B0BYSC91FT/ I think this is actually the exact bag, or extremely similar at least for size comparison. I have never been charged the carry-on bag fee. I've never even been *threatened* with a carry-on bag fee. Just bring your bag, board the flight and throw it in an overhead. The gate agents and the flight attendants do not get paid enough to care. For short flights to me these budget airlines are extremely worth it. I take a lot of sub 3 hour flights. Northern CA to Arizona/PNW/Southern CA/Vegas and I'll happily save $150 to deal with slightly shittier seats and no in-seat service.

Frozen_Shades

Tonight's rock out session is an old, mostly unknown album. [One Minute Silence - Buy Now, Saved Later](https://youtu.be/FT1qHJBgUvI?si=vJHcsvyF57RXpZ7C)

aser27

Just a correction to the FT headline, the S&P article was just for the European market, not US or global

Affectionate-Idea690

Biden set to voice concerns over Nippon Steel takeover of US Steel - FT

Affectionate-Idea690

VW considers partnership to produce mass market electric vehicles - FT

Affectionate-Idea690

Rishi Sunak moves to block foreign state ownership of UK news outlets - FT

Affectionate-Idea690

ARM unveils first chip design to power self-driving cars - FT

iamtracefree

AI mkt is expected to be $25T by 2030 and 98% of it is EXPECTED to be based on Deep Learning. Verses, with Active Inference, is showing a better, faster and cheaper form of AI (doesn't need to be trained or use NVDA hardware)...yes 98% of $25T is the market oppty, which could make Active Inference (Genius) the standard for AI...and V trades for roughly $175M... Yes the mkt is saying "prove it", and they did publicly a couple times (Nov, Feb)..not just general intelligence BUT the ability to share intelligence (NOBODY else has done that). AI mkt is expected to be $25T by 2030 and 98% of it is EXPECTED to be based on Deep Learning. Verses, with Active Inference, is showing a better, faster and cheaper for of AI (doesn't need to be trained or use NVDA hardware). You don't get on the stage at the World Economic Forum (Davos) with one of the top AI experts, (sponsored by CNBC/FT) unless there is something there. Yes, this is a speculation..but if they meet or exceed benchmarks (publicly said they are), get big name investor(s), or quantify revenue deals, this could be one of the AI stocks every fund will need to own. Here is a YouTube vidoe of what the benchmarks could mean for valuation [AI Breakthrough](https://youtu.be/Un1BN1UlK7w?si=V3fcfF13orpdPVnu) p.s. people seem to forget they invented the protocols for the Internet of Things, the soon to be 1T devices connected to Web/each other, that can embedded with AI due to Genius.

AP9384629344432

Plus as I posted yesterday: On META vs. TikTok ([FT article](https://www.ft.com/content/7db1c1b3-5a61-4dee-a922-ade8b9c77522)) - [App downloads now favoring Instagram](https://i.imgur.com/YUffpMx.png) - "Instagram’s monthly active users reached 1.47bn, with a rise of 13mn in the final quarter of 2023, according to Sensor Tower. TikTok’s active users reached 1.12bn, with a decline of 12mn in the final three months of last year." [Graphic](https://i.imgur.com/vKKv3VL.png). - "However, TikTok continues to gain better engagement from its more than 1bn active users worldwide. Users spent an average of 95 minutes on TikTok in the fourth quarter of last year, compared with 62 minutes on Instagram, 30 minutes on X and 19 minutes on Snapchat"

Decent-Photograph391

The FT video explained it pretty well. They basically subbed everything out. I don’t find that aspect of it hard to believe. But how sustainable this business model is, I do question.

AP9384629344432

# Assorted Weekend Commentary. Note that you can 'hide' or minimize a comment if the length annoys you. ## [Consumer Data from Mastercard](https://twitter.com/talmonsmith/status/1766232200469422470) for February 2024: > - Total retail sales (ex auto): up year-over-year, with online retail sales up more than +9.1% > - Online apparel sector: up +14.5% year-over-year > - Restaurant sector: up +6% year over year ## US versus European Productivity Growth - "New data released on Friday showed eurozone productivity fell 1.2 per cent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, while in the US it rose 2.6 per cent in the same period, separate data showed. Labour productivity growth in the US has been more than double that of the eurozone and UK in the past two decades". [Graphic](https://i.imgur.com/Jq2WExU.png). Productivity is everything when it comes to long term economic growth! - "Output per hour worked, a standard measure of labour productivity, has grown more than 6 per cent in the US non-farm business sector since 2019, according to official data. That far outpaces the eurozone and UK, which have seen growth of around 1 per cent over the same period" - However, in fairness to the Europeans, let us applaud their innovation in regulation, fines, licensing, and windfall taxation! ## HCC - Reading the last earnings call transcript, worth pointing out that this is not a US-facing company. "Our sales by geography in the fourth quarter breaks down as follows; 56% into Europe, 16% into South America, 25% into Asia and 3% into the U.S. markets." - Found this [VIC writeup](https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/WARRIOR_MET_COAL_INC/7803594120) from August 2023, when the price was at $41 (we're now 48% higher). At the time, they estimated a mid-30% dividend yield through 2024, since they would have more cash than is needed to service Blue Creek and would return them via special divvies rather than buybacks (which would cause their NOLs, i.e., tax deductions, to expire). Their mid case was a $58 per share FV. But this ignored Blue Creek. Their estimate is $30 per share value embedded in Blue Creek without assuming multiple expansion. So basically you buy that 'for free'. Multiple expansion (just a touch) then gets you to enormous upside on top of that. - Last quarter saw a pretty large 36% increase in headcount, but this is in part due to union workers returning + non-union replacements hired + new additions to prepare for Blue Creek. HCC had a major labor strike in 2021 due to the loss of previous benefits when Walter Energy went bankrupt and became HCC, and the company basically just waited them out and then got all the employees to return with no real concessions. (It's not a labor friendly company) - Based on Q&A, no reason to expect buybacks anytime soon, not until Blue Creek is at full steam. But you can probably expect more dividend payments. And some capital appreciation too. ## On META vs. TikTok ([FT article](https://www.ft.com/content/7db1c1b3-5a61-4dee-a922-ade8b9c77522)) - [App downloads now favoring Instagram](https://i.imgur.com/YUffpMx.png) - "Instagram’s monthly active users reached 1.47bn, with a rise of 13mn in the final quarter of 2023, according to Sensor Tower. TikTok’s active users reached 1.12bn, with a decline of 12mn in the final three months of last year." [Graphic](https://i.imgur.com/vKKv3VL.png). - "However, TikTok continues to gain better engagement from its more than 1bn active users worldwide. Users spent an average of 95 minutes on TikTok in the fourth quarter of last year, compared with 62 minutes on Instagram, 30 minutes on X and 19 minutes on Snapchat" ## UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2024 ([link to summary report](https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/insights/2024/global-investment-returns-yearbook.html)). Some datapoints you might find interesting. - [Global equity market composition in 1899 versus today](https://i.imgur.com/VQ4hDbq.png) - [Global equity market composition over time](https://i.imgur.com/BtVrOts.png) since 1899. The 1950s-60s saw an even more US dominated global stock market, but this was in part due to the post-WWII destruction of Europe. And despite the enormous economic miracle in China, averaging 9.91% from 1970 to 2010, the equity returns have been awful. Economic growth != stock market growth. - "Markets at the beginning of the 20th century were dominated by railroads, which accounted for 63% of US stock market value and almost 50% in the UK. 124 years later, railroads have declined almost to the point of stock-market extinction, representing less than 1% of the US market and close to zero in the UK". [Graphic](https://i.imgur.com/rkJ3ckf.png). - But declining industries are not all bad: "Over the last 124 years, railroad stocks have beaten the US market, and outperformed both trucking stocks and airlines since these industries emerged in the 1920s and 1930s". It's interesting to see how some old technologies get ruthlessly stamped out and equity holders basically ruined, while others deliver stunning returns even a century later. - "Of the US firms listed in 1900, some 80% of their value was in industries that are small or extinct today; the UK figure is 65%." You can see how the UK stock market has a lot of 'old'-school industries. For example, over a century later, mining has remained roughly the same proportion of the UK's equity market. "Banking, insurance, [...] Food, beverages (including alcohol), tobacco, and utilities" + mining all persisted though in the UK, while textiles, iron, coal and steel were mostly relocated to the emerging world. - On Japan: "From 1900 to 1939, Japan was the world’s second-best equity performer. But World War II was disastrous and Japanese stocks lost 96% of their real value. From 1949 to 1959, Japan’s “economic miracle” began and equities gave a real return of 1,565% over this period." - Switzerland: "with just 0.1% of the world’s population and less than 0.01% of its land mass", it somehow has 2.4% of the global equity market!

16ap

FT

peterpeer9

it's so weird how talking about money and wealth is taboo. Like yea, I got 500k saved up and make $2000/mo risk free off bank interest with a high paying tech job, and you can't pay your cellphone bill because you're struggling to find $18/hr FT. Sure, emotions. Sure, dick sizing. Boohoo. But if you get past that you might find some lessons on how to get your shit together. Balls deep in debt? You'd never know with half the people you meet. Simple fucking "don't be poor" life pro tips would fix 30% of their issues if they'd just recognize there's a way forward but oh my fucking god, it's going to cost a tiny bit of your time to work through. idk people are stupid

ballmode

Everybody rotating from AAPL to M$FT

AP9384629344432

Unscrupulous consumers use tools like Bypass Paywalls Clean on either Firefox or Chrome to read Bloomberg, FT, WSJ, etc. articles. I would advise against it. UBlock Origin is another tool to be wary of.

NoDiscussion9873

If Burry and Munger weren't enough, Rob Armstrong at the FT also went long them in the Unhedged podcast a few weeks back; which was enough for me to take a stake in them. So I'm with you man, think there worst is behind them.

WassufWonka

I mean it's all relative. I make 21k a year in my FT job and am considering DCAing 500$/month in TQQQ.

bigchipero

It’s amazing how if yer a FT RE investor u can take all yer losses now! Only plebe W2’s have to take the $3k loss limit /yr! That’s lobbying 4 ya !

WonderfulMotor4308

"Lab monkey prices plunge in China as drug research slows" FT Now is your chance to buy monkeys at the bottom

Samjabr

youtube is truly a pos - I can't find the bitcorn video. Does anyone have the link please? It keeps showing me random bullshit bitcoin videos even when I put "bitcorn" in quotes. Sidenote: Google sucks donkey dick. I hope they collapse. I used to hate M$FT, but I genuinely hope they annihilate the shitpile that is google.

SilverDem0n

>absolutely unreliable all these supposed investor-related sources are. But beware, WSJ or FT aren't much better The reader must learn to distinguish between factual reporting and opinion pieces. The WSJ and FT are generally accurate on their factual reporting \[1\] of numbers and events. Opinion pieces, however, are just opinions. \[1\] Notwithstanding a small number of typos inevitable in any publication

notreallydeep

Depends on the article. WSJ/FT have a much, much higher density of higher quality articles. MF quite literally has zero. Both have garbage, but MF is made of garbage.

real_kerim

Really shows how absolutely unreliable all these supposed investor-related sources are. But beware, WSJ or FT aren't much better.

AP9384629344432

More assorted weekend comments: - [Article on Europe's Granola 11 vs. the Mag 7](https://www.ft.com/content/b87e7bd6-b2be-43ca-bf03-a221383a8a92). It turns out it's not just in the US where a small handful of high quality companies are driving most of the market's gains. The Granola is composed mostly of pharma companies (GSK + Roche + Novo Nordisk + Novartis + AstraZeneca + Sanofi) but also includes, ASML, Nestlé , L’Oréal, LVMH, and tech company SAP. "In the past 12 months the group has accounted for 50 per cent of gains on the Stoxx Europe 600 index. [...] The Granolas [...] climbed 18 per cent over the past 12 months beating the Stoxx 600’s 7.5 per cent rise over the same period." Their share of the Stoxx 600% is 25%, compared to Mag 7's 28%, but only have a combined market cap of $3T vs the Mag 7's $13T. Their their total return has actually [beaten the Mag 7's since the start of 2021](https://i.imgur.com/iGHB0Bp.png), mostly because they never tanked the way Mag 7 did in 2022. Currently they are much cheaper at 20x forward earnings vs. the Mag 7's 30x. Maybe concentration by megacaps is becoming the new normal around the globe, rather than being some unique feature of the US and its tech giants. - [German investment into the US is soaring](https://i.imgur.com/mhm3R8N.png), while its investment into China stagnates. [Examples of some of the jobs](https://i.imgur.com/4jmqihM.png). It's hard to overstate just how influential the Inflation Reduction Act has been in generating a flood of investment from abroad. Other than the Infrastructure Bill, the IRA is arguably the biggest legislative accomplishment of the last 4 years. But this investment from abroad reflects not just US tax/stimulus incentives but also longer term advantages of doing business in America such as cheap energy and relatively light regulations compared to Europe. [Full FT article](https://www.ft.com/content/bca7837a-6ac4-4ed1-ab73-18fbdfa5f1da). - I have a small position in Daktronics (90 shares at $8.12 cost basis). Almost forgot about it [but I made a brief comment introducing the company](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18vu4qb/rstocks_daily_discussion_monday_jan_01_2024/kfutfhn/) on New Years Day. An way better write-up can be found in a recent post on the [Value Investors Club.](https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/DAKTRONICS_INC/7741731149) The earnings call is coming up on Wednesday, Feb. 28th pre-market, and that will determine if I close this position or expand it. I'm basically watching out to see if the one-time hits to earnings last quarter were in fact one-time, whether backlog increases, if the gross margin increase reflects a structural improvement (e.g., from automation), etc. The VIC write-up makes a compelling case that they are a market leader in this niche and how an upgrade cycle combined with rising demand in general will boost both growth and margins.

AP9384629344432

Honestly these picks are so terrible that I'd advise first becoming a Boglehead like the others are suggesting (e.g., buy VTI). You can read the The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing, one of the very first investing books I ever read, to understand why this is the best default option for most people. I see you invested over 100K---even if you invested that amount at peak bubble territory but in an index fund, you'd be 88K richer than today. Then, if you want to learn about stock investing, I generally advise reading/consuming as much of you can about fundamental analysis. Here are some ways I learned a lot: - Watched Aswath Damodaran's various lecture series on corporate finance / valuation / discounted cash flow analysis. Read some of his books. - Read other people's DD on Seeking Alpha, Value Investing Club, (free) Substacks (be selective here) - Read the financial papers on a daily basis (Bloomberg, FT, WSJ are my favorites) - Follow high quality people on Twitter--NOT those who post technical analysis (chart reading nonsense). NOT those who only talk macro. Or are just selling you something. Or dooming constantly. Lots of accounts post really high quality DD. The financial journalist crowd is also good (Conor Sen, Joe Weisenthal). Or read the various investing books recommended on the sidebars of /r/stocks or /r/investing. I read a book recently I liked, "The quality growth investor" by Long Equity (a guy on Twitter). Was a bit too basic for me but I think it's a really nice starting point and a quick read (< 3 hours) for someone new to fundamental analysis. Point is to do all of this *before* you start throwing real money into these very very risky stocks. You would then at least have an intuition that these stocks were bad investments just in a handful of seconds. And even when you buy individual stocks, you should aim to have it be like 5-10% of your overall portfolio. Diamond-hands is good if you're invested in higher quality businesses. The various famous quotes like 'Be greedy when others are fearful' or 'Time in the market vs timing the market' are often abused by people to justify the worst investments in existence.

TinyPaleontologist87

Wish I saw this earlier. Looks like you’ll be able to go from FT to PT at Wendy’s

ahminus

FT.

NoDiscussion9873

It will go down. Nvidia only have the shares through a different company the acquired years ago. They just had to do the filling recently just to rules they now have to follow after their ARM investment. Hope that helps. FT Alphaville have a good piece on it, which is also free to view/don't need an FT subscription.

unlimitedquanteasing

How did those people working 2 FT jobs during COVID not get caught? Wouldn't having benefits from two places have raised some red flags?

sirfrancpaul

I have a hunch that this is the market cycle top (or relatively soon) .. yield curve uninverting, inflation rising, U6 (FT unemployment) rising, UK Germany Japan in recession, we appear to have delayed a recession but now avoided it... what are others thoughts? I believe gold will rally from here and stocks will decline but perhaps value stocks will be ok.. is anything safe other than t bills and gold ?

KingJacoPax

This is why my FT subscription is the papers from in 2 weeks time. This way I get information 2 weeks ahead of events.

Ok-Beach-928

Between both of us $70,000 . We live FT in an RV, quit our corporate jobs 3 years ago to have less stress and more free time traveling before we die but got into debt to do this lifestyle and not regretting it, but need to get these debts paid off faster.

Unitedtendies

Always FT women before you go on a date. The amount of times they’ve been way different without makeup. Holy fuk,

5uckmyd1ckb1t4

>❖ EU TO HIT APPLE WITH FIRST EVER FINE OVER MUSIC STREAMING: FT Brussels is to impose its first ever fine on tech giant Apple for allegedly breaking EU law over access to its music streaming services, according to five people with direct knowledge of the long-running investigation.

AP9384629344432

**Fun facts about Carl Icahn:** Over 6 years from 2017 through 2023, he lost $9B from shorting the market, made $6B from long investments, and thus netted a $3B LOSS. He even took "$4.3bn in short losses in 2020 and 2021." **His investment portfolio has lost money in every year since 2014.** That's right, the guy lost money *EVERY year* during one of the most epic QE-supported bull runs in history. [FT article about it](https://www.ft.com/content/9e0cc00d-a910-455c-bc1a-2d20dfe21289). I therefore find it funny that when the guy does go long on something, it's in some of the shittiest investments imaginable (airlines). It's like when you read those Zerohedge-fans on Twitter constantly proclaiming the global economy a house of cards and about to fall apart (for the last 15 years) and then it turns out they're long some money-losing junior mining company incorporated in the DR Congo. "I think the global economy is going to puke imminently so let me buy total garbage as a hedge"

Loud_Campaign_5128

At a quick glance, the company website says it has 450 FT employees and it has about $22mm cash and 8mm debt and generated $24mm revenue in Q4 2023 and $26mm in the prior quarter and it's projecting $23-25mm revenue with about 29% gross margin. but the company's cash and assets do not reflect their revenues.

SuperNige

Wow, that’s nuts! I wouldn’t put it past them to try the same antics with ARM. Good find on the FT article..

globaltrotter196

Hey, enough time for the alpha to pass. Right? By that time we're reading about it in the WSJ, FT, and here 🤷🏻‍♂️

Top_Chair5186

If it wasn't for our side business it woul wouldn't be possible. I have a full time job and have a side business that makes about another 75% of income that my FT job makes. So it's the only way we make it work.

trainwreck001

OpenAI revenue passes $2 bln milestone: FT 02/09/24 4:30 AM NVDA $4.5K