IBM

No-Fig-8614

I think it’ll drop a bit then stabilize then wait for the first earnings call to see what the new management is going to do. I imagine he can quickly make splashes by spending some of their massive cash pile. It just depends on how conservative or opportunistic he will be. For instance he may be more intune with tech stock which Warren has said he isn’t and doesn’t plan invest much in that sector even though it’s the future. They just need to find solid companies that meet their criteria that is a company that is very undervalued for how their balance sheet looks and performance looks. I hope they get into the tech world. IBM was one of warrens regrets but IBM was a stupid choice in the first place. IBM, SAP, Oracle only grow via acquisitions. Which is a strategy I don’t think Warren believes in and hopefully the new guy doesn’t either. Have to find the company who is fundamentally strong but undervalued. Also at the same token I don’t want them to lose their initial strategy of solid core industries. I do question warrens love for occidental….

BlazinHotNachoCheese

NVIDIA has a huge moat. It's more like incompetent-wishin. Everybody is trying to talk Nvidia down so that the can buy more shares. Ain't nobody any close and just like in the old days when everyone was buy IBM junk and saying "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM," who the fuck is going to buy anything else than NVIDIA for the nest 2 years? Just fucking go to your board, give them a budget for AI and warn them that a lack of investment in AI may mean a major loss of market share. This is like Y2K all over again. All the douche bag executive teams that don't know shit about tech are going to loosen the purse strings because they think "what the fuck is a neural net and large language model?"

No-Fig-8614

Palantir is probably the most stable bet. They are the first company to really use AI and Graph data in a meaningful way. They also have stable contracts with the government and a lot of fortune 100. Most of the good ones are startups/private. All the specialized hardware startups will be bought out, the softwsre ones are already extremely valuable (OpenAI, Anthropic, huggingface). You have a lot of the semi legacy companies like salesforce and snwoflake baked into their pricing. Then you have the ultra legacy like IBM who secretly has a lot of ai patents and software but hidden behind an old name. Then you have the cloud juggernauts like Microsoft, AWS, and Google priced in….. then you have the hardware provides like hpe, super micro, dell already pumping out server racks for large corporations. There isn’t a lot in the open market that seem attractive right now.

No-Fig-8614

The way Berkshire has worked has been the very very long game. They are studying businesses and the economics around it for years. To think they are looking at what happened this week to next week is the wrong type of firm that Berkshire is. Berkshire is part Management Consultant, Part Hedge Fund, Part Family Office.... it's a weird company for instance they bailed out goldman during the '08 crisis.... they've bought a portfolio of companies they think work very well for long term sustainable returns, and they also try to rebuild business like their Kraft Heinz debacle. They look at companies that are fundamentally undervalued and invest, sometimes they just buy the company and let it run the way it's been run because the market has devalued it but its fundamentals are strong. Other times they buy companies that are undervalued and have poor management, and then they sometimes just buy into companies as investments and not wholly owned. They also as warren has said they arn't experts in a lot of industries thats why it takes years to make an investment but for instance he notoriously said he can't value tech stocks yet he bought Apple and did well but also bought IBM and regretted it.

roniadotnet

Could this mean Apple has become or is becoming the next IBM?

KiraaCorsac

It's AI and it was always AI. In 1980s, IBM had had commercial voice recognition base on hidden markov models - an AI. This does not only recognize the words but also takes your order. It's super likely they are using some large language model

PandaGodFliesToMoon

If IBM bought msft for 3 mill it would be worth 1 mil rn.

Ready2gambleboomer

Bill tried to sell MSFT to IBM for $3 million and they passed. How you'd like to be that regard?

CapitalPrefer

Buy IBM, you can thank yourself later. Quantum computer is the real AI

sfaticat

It wont last. They offered the buybacks because the iPhone sales are down and their new products are failing. In the IBM stage of their lifecycle as long as Tim Cook is there

parallax_wave

It's the difference between long term profit and short term profit. Cutting costs and giving stock buybacks will jack up the stock price and guarantee the c-level execs fat compensation, so they couldn't give less of a fuck what happens 2-5 years down the road. As far as what these changes do long-term, I think there's plenty of evidence that gutting American workforces eventually weakens the company (IBM, GM, etc)

coolsnow7

IBM was ~15% of the total US stock market for many years.

jeremyascot

Then you become IBM

squaresnoo

IBM says hello

CapitalPrefer

Buy IBM you can thank yourself later. Quantum Computer is the real AI of the Future.

CapitalPrefer

Buy IBM easy money for towards the future,

bkbikeberd

IBM has tried this experiment of outsourcing every job they can to India.

Vast_Cricket

I still believe in what was posted 1 year ago. Since then I have been studying AI technology and concluded the technology is evolutionary not revolutionary. There are just a few companies like Google, Adbe, Amzn and IBM can benefit. AI, Pltr earnings are where they should be.

AlternativeOwn3387

what's your thesis for these companies? Apple Nvidia Cisco IBM Microsoft Texas Instruments Verizon why not just do 100% Fidelity Total Market Index Fund?

CaptainShoddy5330

At 2:45PM Eastern - S&P, TSLA. IBM did that exact thing. Not sure if others noticed in some other stocks.

Orennji

> Yeah because people need vegetables to survive. But lettuce growers don't produce lettuce until the entire earth is covered with it. Firms that fail to observe market trends and scale production/costs appropriately exit the market and a stable number of players eventually emerge. This is what I meant by basic economics. You keep ignoring this. >Weed is exceptional It's not. The black market is simply another set of firms, operating under production sub-scale models that are slowly losing market share to large producers with economies of scale, and more advanced value-added products like concentrates, vapes, edibles, etc. Do you see anyone buying black market lettuce from street corners? > it’s all wild speculation right now We already know the big players in cannabis and we can compare their market shares. Canada is the most mature federally legal, unlimited production market we have to study, and the top market share positions only slightly fluctuate every year between the top 5. There is always uncertainty in investing, but "wild" speculation is more akin to the tech bubble we are seeing now with triple digit P/Es tgst can easily turn into the next disappointing IBM or Cisco. I don't really care to convince you, but I was hoping you would have at least had the integrity to defend your thought process coherently. You could have made some good points, but I don't think you did.

IlllIlIIlIlII

Not much, the market is controlled by the big tech currently which is not his field of expertise, when Warren and Munger tried to buy tech like IBM, Oracle or BABA they got annihilated, the Apple was an exception because I believe Greg Abel did the DD.

JaxTaylor2

I guess I will too. Why not. It can join my IBM calls. lol

kimjongspoon100

I sold as soon as I heard IBM, Ill buy in again if the deal falls through

Traditional-Life-915

I'm sorry brother - I cut my losses on $IBM and moved on to $AMC. I'm regarded.

Traditional-Life-915

Cut my losses on $IBM and entered $AMC.

BarebowRob

I gained 5k on earnings from TI, then lost 7k on IBM earnings.

StatementOwn4896

They’re basically IBM or Xerox at this point.

reFridgeRatorRaiderG

MSFT and IBM are two of the leaders in quantum computing; now you know. You can rent Quanutum computing time from Microsoft

Mediocre-Ad2227

IONQ is on my watchlist. I'm invested in IBM partly due to their quantum work and their other attempts at innovation, and more so due to the turnaround in business strategy and profitability. IMO IBM has best chance to succeed with quantum among your list of majors; but IONQ is setting up as the best pure play in quantum compute.

Mediocre-Ad2227

Disagree that IBM work with quantum is fluff. IBM has a large R&D effort over a number of years, first working on getting efficient quantum machine to work, which IBM has accomplished, and next designing and building out a commercialization if quantum, getting it to scale out efficiently. IBM was an early first mover in this quantum effort. And the company that can scale out quantum capabilities commercially will have a strong first mover advantage. As a Software Engineer, I've worked with semiconductor machines for decades and partnered with IBM consulting. I can say "Quantum is the future", so far beyond anything we are all used to. It's revolutionary, beyond evolutionary.

Past-Advantage8584

The IONQ Quantum computer does not require absolute zero. It’s a different design than what Google and IBM have which are those chandelier type computers. Again they may be blowing smoke because their tech seems to be too good to be true.

Kranoath

Each time I think of Intel, I think of IBM, Motorola, Nokia etc...

dimp13

Blackberry actually had support of entire governments. For many government organization it was the only approved smartphone even when it lost market share on consumer market. Obama used Blackberry until 2016. Intel will not go away as a company for a very long time, but it may underperform the market for years to come. Look at IBM 10 year chart (another company government used to rely on). Anyway, good luck with your bet I will stick with "overpriced" NVDA and TSM. I may buy Intel if they show something real, not the prototypes or promises of future products. I am OK with not catching the exact bottom.

RTiger

The wheel is a good strategy. The risk is that the blue chip turns into a cow chip. This happens more often than investors believe it will.  Any number of examples exist. IBM and GE were two of the bluest chips back in the day. Then they weren’t. GE has come back of late. IBM has never seen a return to glory. I rarely see any Reddit threads on big blue.  A relative has been holding Intel for many moons. When he bought it was a premier blue chip stock   It’s been over a decade since it’s been relevant to most option traders.  Yes the wheel means slightly less downside than buying shares. However if the stock has a huge bull move, the wheel profits are paltry compared to shares. 

Traditional-Life-915

$HTZ calls printed - I'm out. Still in $IBM waiting.

dgreensp

I’ve been experimenting with long straddles myself, so I understand where you are coming from. I can’t tell you anything definitively about whether this would work, but I’d be happy to chat more about this. What I’ve noticed (and it sounds like you’ve noticed too) is, the total price of an ATM long straddle (call and put, together) often goes up before it goes down. Not always, but usually. Which suggests selling at some percentage gain (like your 30%), and some percentage loss. My particular interest is really cheap straddles despite a DTE of, say, two or three weeks (so there is time for the stock to move before much theta decay). For example, I saw a price of $0.40 a straddle last week on a $33 stock, expiring mid-May, and I thought, wait, people are betting this stock won’t move by even fifty cents over multiple WEEKS? I found the stock by looking for stocks hitting an IV low, because the absolute worst thing that can happen when you’re holding a straddle is for the IV to drop. What you want, ideally, is a likely IV rise. The stock is Hashicorp, and the reason for the low IV is the announcement of IBM planning to buy them for $35 a share. Still, there are all sorts of reasons the stock could move a little bit, so I bought a bunch of contracts. Sure enough, within 24 hours, there was a point in time where the straddle was up 20%. I’m holding out for a little higher. I’m excited to see what will happen today. The great thing about a straddle, with the DTE I am talking about, is you aren’t going to suddenly lose it all. There’s only so much it can go down, because of the time value. The worst case, as I said, is IV drops, the straddle loses (say) up to half its value overnight, the stock refuses to budge over the coming days, and then the value decays. You still have time to sell it without losing ALL your money, at least, if you don’t hold it until expiry in any scenario. Also, if something unexpected happens and everything moves, you make money. I like a bet where if anything unexpected happens, you win. I hadn’t thought of using a stock that has a really high IV, where the options are “expensive” rather than cheap. But maybe there’s a logic there about the IV being unlikely to go down? With a really short DTE, I would worry about needing to understand the fine details of theta decay, and being in situations where I need the stock to move NOW in order to make money, but it just isn’t moving much in an afternoon, which is pretty normal for a stock. But looking at the NVDA graph, it sure does move a lot.

Cruezin

IBM doesn't manufacture shit anymore. It's almost a pure IP play in semiconductors these days.

varrock_dark_wizard

Sure but the risk free rate right now is like 5% IBM has been too big to fail for the last 10 years but has had no growth with a 4% yield, the same can happen to INTC.

RetirementGoals

Really don’t understand that though process. Just because a stock offers dividends does not mean it’s not a growth stock or become stalled. Soooo many offer dividends yet are still considered growth: MSFT, KO, SHW, JNJ, IBM, TGT and so on and so forth

Traditional-Life-915

$IBM is up 1% overnight... Hopefully it's a warm up to cook during regular hours haha

Traditional-Life-915

BTW everyone, I've spent all weekend wondering if I made the right plays for this coming week... Short answer is idk about those $HTZ calls but I am mighty confident that $IBM will recover to the $175-$180 zone. I'll post under this comment thread on Friday with an update! Wish me luck regardsemote:t5\_2th52:12787

Traditional-Life-915

$IBM recovery after a dramatic overreaction missing revenue estimates.

Traditional-Life-915

Simply regarded. $IBM missed revenue earnings but not so much to cause the turnaround. Kind of looking for that dead cat voice then I'll sell my options. Hertz is purely speculation. They probably have room to drop another 20% because of the terrible EV situation they got themselves in. However, I'm looking for a $HTZ dead cat bounce as well and I'll sell.

DopeAbsurdity

It makes sense that the leader of AI should be a car company instead of Microsoft, Google, OpenAI, IBM or any of the other big companies that have a shit ton more coders and were already in AI adjacent industries or have been working on multiple types of AI for years NOPE it's gonna be Tesla.... makes sense

Traditional-Life-915

The $IBM and $HTZ calls I bought Friday.

Dan_inKuwait

Why don't you talk about IBM instead of shitting the place up by asking for tips?

WhitePaperMaker

IBM is the AI and cloud company that nobody is watching. Their view on hybrid cloud is probably most accurate. Amazon was literally bragging last quarter about saving money by hosting on premises servers. Their last 30 years sucked because the last 3 CEOs weren't techies. This new one Aravind is the absolute G.O.A.T. Hence why the stock is trading 50% over its long running range.

HumanRightsAdv

IBM is very business focused obviously hence we don't hear too much from them but their in this game to win it, they could be the ones in the lead

No-Introduction-6368

I like it more reading all these dumb comments on it. If quantum computing becomes a real thing IBM will be one of the front runners. IonQ, Dwave, rig, all might be right along with them but rather have the dividends while really not going all in quantum stocks.

Sagonator

IBM? Bruh, how about volkswagen. The stock in a perfect position to grow. That being said, I long understood that stonks do not obey TA. If they did, every stock would have been a flat line.

Honest-Abe2677

IBM is an established dividend stock that doesn't have major jumps or drops often. Seems like one to hold shares rather than gambling options like it's a mega growth stock

Past-Track-9976

Add IBM

HumanRightsAdv

I like IBM big time but long-term, their building quantum computers

Perennium

We bought hashicorp, people liquidated IBM stocks to buy hashicorp because what’s gonna happen is a stock split for those that own hashicorp- when they bought RedHat, RedHat stock went 2:1 split so everyone’s coffers doubled overnight.

RationalExuberance7

I think we’re seeing the birth of the new platforms - the AI platforms that others adopt instead of creating their own. The advantage of the AI platforms will only increase exponentially. Today is the new IBM -> Microsoft moment

butter14

Xerox, IBM, GE, Hewlett Packard, Kodak....

Traditional-Life-915

Rally regards to get IBM to $195 lmfao. Make this poor guy a millionare

Traditional-Life-915

Mil sounds good... I'll need help though - rally regards to squeeze IBM to $195 lol

Decent-Ad-4358

Holding IBM and HTZ calls? Trying to speed run that account to 0?

FirebaseZ

IBM will print Lunas

MrZwink

Google and IBM are very different companies. Google is the new Yahoo... Remember yahoo?

Open_Minded_Anonym

Hubbell Inc from 2004. My wife has shares of IBM from 1972, but that’s not a stock we picked.

Money_Essay7793

Sureee IBM is full of boomers. Don't even trade boomers stock. I'm surprised ancient IBM is still alive after fumbling the biggest boom in personal computers, servers and mobile. It will fumble AI and whatever quantum fantasy you're talking about

Money_Essay7793

IBM is for boomer

CapitalPrefer

IBM is with Quantum Computer is the real AI computing!

CapitalPrefer

IBM on sale, 👍.

Amaeyth

Well, yeah, it's a mature company so gains are limited. It's like holding IBM stock. In a bull market the name of the game is growth stocks. Intel may reach $50 in the near term, but most of the focus in this space is on nVidia and AMD which have valuations that don't make sense to begin with, and their volatility speaks to that. For Intel to have a 300b+ market cap, they need their foundry business to become profitable, and the time to market on leading designs needs to be shortened. As you likely know, those are high priority targets. 14nm+++++ and the previous set of management heads were not suited to run an engineering company. Pat is doing much better. tl;dr Intel stock between 25-50 for another 3 years while fabs get built up and R&D progresses barring some black swan event.

Abysswalker794

Yeah let’s take IBM as an example and not Apple or Microsoft which both made several 100% after introducing dividends. I mean you are not wrong. IF Google behaves like IBM they will be treated like IBM. But I see no evidence or reason why we should expect them to behave like IBM. They have several Premium businesses with moats as wide as it can be, and they are still investing huge money into the business and have several growth opportunities for the future.

phileo99

You said that you invest only in companies that can competitively reinvest all of their earnings and not have to provide shareholders via dividend. In other words, you are saying that your criteria precludes you from investing in NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, ORCL, QCOM, AVGO, IBM. I am saying that you should consider being more flexible with your rather inflexible criteria, otherwise you are missing out on really profitable investments like NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, ORCL, QCOM, AVGO, GOOGL, META.

BusConscious

Google is introducing a stock buyback program and dividends. Google is reports records earning, because they are cutting. Party hard at the stock market🤡 It's they are no longer a growth company you fucking morons. Like warren buffet they earn so much cash that they don't see sufficient investment opportunities anymore. But if Google grows and behaves more like IBM in the future, this is actually terrible news for a stock that is priced for extensive growth. But keep partying what do I know.

No_Cow_8702

Cracked me up as well. Its like naming the best semiconductor stock and saying “IBM”.

Kerne1Pan1k

IBM going to pop tomorrow?

RationalExuberance7

My impression - Google announcing a dividend is their IBM moment. They’re bound to be a dinosaur 🦕 The tough part now - which small company today will be the Google to Google’s IBM

allllusernamestaken

remember when IBM bought Red Hat and everyone thought it was the beginning of IBM modernizing, but instead they just turned Red Hat into a boomer company, all the smart people left, and then companies abandoned Red Hat because IBM started trying to milk everyone for more money. They will likely ruin Hashicorp as well.

cjorgensen

People bought MCI and Enron all the way down. GE was a great deal for decades. HP, IBM, etc. Even the market itself has crashed a time or two.

pixel_of_moral_decay

Google is the new IBM. They aren’t done, they will live on forever as a company driven by inertia and bean counters. Reality is Google hasn’t been on the bleeding edge of anything in a long time. Even search they have to pay Apple billions a year to be the default search engine to keep that massive iPhone user base to prop up their market share.

Namerflop

people realized they are the new IBM

john2557

QQQ bears will always have INTC and IBM 

gregsapopin

I didn't invest in IBM even tho it has a lot of dividends because they were involved in the holocaust.

Psychic_Trader

Look at the ten year returns for IBM  Nice trade.

mlowrey404

Expected the same for IBM….I wont get burned twice.

Roxaos

IBM strangle paid yesterday tho 

KnewTwoDiss

Do you know what Operating System META, NFLX, and IBM servers run on? Neither do I, but I'm telling myself Microsoft to make my calls feel better.

KnewTwoDiss

Everyone is gonna load up MSFT puts after NTFLX and META and IBM took a shit. Not this man. Gonna hold some 1DTE Calls.

Ubuiqity

IBM. A company with great potential that snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.

bananaholster3

IBM puts printing

ObeseCannibal

Is there a reason why I shouldn't sell my HCP shares now? If the deal with IBM falls through then I assume the share prices would fall back. And if the current market cap is slightly around the amount the deal is set at, is there any reason it would go higher?

8v2HokiePokie8v2

My company currently uses Hashi, and it’s a great product at the moment….hopefully IBM doesn’t fuck it up too quickly

greytoc

It kinda makes sense - at least from IBM's point of view. Hashicorp products like Terraform and Packer are commonly used with Ansible. And Ansible is predominantly supported by Redhat (owned by IBM).

greenappletree

IBM argued that no needs a home pc - same with blackberry that everyone needs a tiny keyboard and history repeats —who know if zuck is right but I rather he take bold Moves and try an innovate instead becoming the next Dino

endeend8

That’s their business model. The time it takes for an old or outdated technology to die is how IBM makes their money because of all the large number of companies that still have and rely on those legacy systems, workflows, integrations, often underinvested so new technology or new trained personnel is not a option meaning those old systems must still keep running to sustain some part of the business. IBM is often the only company around with the consultants who know how to service or support those archaic systems, or provide any admin, upgrades or licenses. It’s often not just one or two customers but hundreds or thousands who are still using those old but “Good enough” outdated services.

SeniorVicePrez

The past is the past. Everyone was smitten that $TSLA will have more deliveries happening later this year and more affordable models coming early 2025 and more buzz around Robotaxi (now into $UBER territory). And I mean c'mon would you bet against Elon. Guy doesn't sleep - actually the only time he's physically been seen sleeping was on the $TSLA factory floor in order move production faster. Do you see Arvind Krishna sleeping in the IBM proposal room to meet an RFP deadline? No - he's never been away from the 3rd floor at Armonk. Do you see Jeff Bezos sleeping in an Amazon fulfilment centre? No. Too busy parading his plastic wife around Indian Creek Florida. Do you see Tim Apple sleeping at the Foxconn Zhengzhou plant? Fuck no. He's too busy in his circle (jerk) spaceship in Cupertino.

FarrisAT

Imagine paying a higher PE multiple for IBM, which is growing 1.5% YoY, versus Google or Meta at 20% YoY. This market simply defies any reason.

ThePandaRider

IBM employs 282k people, 400 isn't much for them.

Maranito_0397

Rookie numbers. I went SPY puts Friday, UPS puts, TXN puts, SPY call today, IBM call. That’s 0/5! 🔥

yall_gotta_move

What Red Hat products did IBM screw up?

amJustSomeFuckingGuy

I wish I could fuck up in life and lose so much money as IBM has and still come out ahead somehow.

TheYakster

IBM where all good software goes to die. Bye hashicorp

dogebonoff

Currently cash bc I have  and wanted to see META and IBM earnings before entering a position Going with POOTS tomorrow after what will likely be a weak pump attempt Why? 1. The way META shat the bed on good earnings feels toppy. The pack leaders are priced to perfection. Lower than expected guidance was all it took to plunge over 15%. The way the blue chip tech “safe haven” stonks are copycat dropping AH is concerning. Sets a precedent that anything short of perfection will be punished heavily 2. We broke trend a couple weeks ago. This week is just a bounce fueled by earnings hopium 3. Passover ending the night of 4/30 means geopolitical fears will escalate, due to people thinking aggression will be postponed until end of Passover 4. MAY FOMC is 5/1. FUD will spike as people anticipate giving up on 2024 rate cuts