GBTC

moonRekt

I cut my seed phrase in half. So wife/kids will have half the seed, and lawyer could have half the seed. So nobody can do anything. Except I haven’t even done that yet I just sold some and bought GBTC, COIN, ETHE stock since I currently have little faith in wife to know anything. But I’m thinking leaving half seed in safe deposit box, only I’m currently listed to have access but will could address it.

coinformania

This is a well-researched and insightful analysis of the recent drop in Bitcoin price attributed to Grayscale's selling of BTC to meet investor redemption requests. Your explanation of the challenges faced by Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs provides valuable context for understanding the current market dynamics. It's important for investors to recognize that while the short-term selling pressure from GBTC may contribute to volatility in the Bitcoin price, it doesn't diminish the long-term potential of Bitcoin as a valuable asset class. The transition from GBTC to spot ETFs may result in temporary fluctuations, but it also reflects the evolution and maturation of the cryptocurrency investment landscape. As you mentioned, patience is key during this transitional phase. While there may be short-term challenges, the broader trend of increasing institutional adoption and growing mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin bodes well for its future prospects. In the long term, the demand for Bitcoin is likely to remain strong, driven by its scarcity, utility, and potential as a hedge against inflation and fiat currency devaluation. Overall, this analysis provides a balanced perspective on the situation and offers reassurance to investors who may be concerned about the recent price movements. It underscores the importance of taking a long-term view and staying focused on the fundamentals of Bitcoin as a disruptive and transformative technology.

GMEthLoopring

I figure pump, cuz GBTC going positive on Friday was bullish 🐂

RANEDJ

Go Bitcoin $BTC $GBTC Premium MIDI Is Still 1.0 ;-)

kpooo7

Well to quote the article you site there was plenty of blame to go around “As I mentioned in the previous article, there is plenty of blame to go around for why GBTC became such a toxic wrecking ball for the broader cryptocurrency industry. You can blame the crypto lenders for their shockingly poor risk management. You can also blame hedge funds and institutional investors for putting on extremely risky trades with obscene amounts of leverage. You can blame Genesis/DCG for providing the leverage in the first place to pump its revenues. Lastly, you can blame the SEC, which denied Grayscale from converting GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF for years, which would have eliminated the market inefficiency and better-protected investors”. So DTC was making money legally and FTX and others were over leverage or crooks, sounds like 2008 all over again.

Kh4otik

While Grayscale (and its parent company, DCG) survived the bloodbath that occurred over these past 2-3 years, the GBTC Trust (now ETF) was at the center of that crypto contagion. They enabled those same companies and people who scammed, went to jail, etc. to take risky leverage when it was at a high premium but then destroyed those companies after it became heavily discounted. That entire episode gave a lot of people a negative image of Grayscale, DCG, and Genesis (Grayscale's sister company). Sources: [Part 1](https://www.swanbitcoin.com/gbtc-was-the-genesis-of-the-crypto-credit-contagion/) [Part 2](https://www.swanbitcoin.com/gbtc-credit-contagion-part-ii/)

mehoratty

If I had to guess the GBTC inflow was just because someone arb’ed in seeing the rather big difference on ibit spot. Nothing else makes sense to me about it.

kpooo7

I get the comments regarding their fees but why the hate? I have been in Grayscale GBTC and ETHE in my 401 since 2021, in it for the long term, grayscale was the only big holder of Crytpo that was not a scam, go to jail, BK etc., thru the last winter. I will look at changing platforms eventually, we will see how the new ETF’s change rates, fold etc.

Arshiapro

GBTC inflow + Dxy dump = bullish

GMEthLoopring

You didn’t even pay attention to yesterday’s inflows? GBTC was positive for the first time in 77 days https://x.com/farsideuk/status/1786605060467700165?s=46&t=Dqq0Bs7cLyY04-RKe-w-5g

liszt1811

Why would people buy GBTC instead of the other ETFs?

heroicwalnuts

First time GBTC has had an inflow since the ETFs started.

bowdenta

Yes, they have a smaller fund with the lowest fees of all etf platforms. I guess today could be the inflection point because customers of GBTC can transfer over without tax implications. So it seems like the customers have fled to the fund enough to the point where GBTC has positive inflows

forkrissake

Is their new mini trust also under the GBTC ticker?

Financial_Design_801

GBTC US$ Flow: +63 million Damn even Grayscale bought the dip 🤣 https://twitter.com/farsideuk/status/1786515781053817108?s=46&t=ihVglVXC0BQSbw6j57EoaA

Objective_Digit

No it it didn't. It dropped a week later after because of the GBTC sell off.

429XY

“The Combo Platter”: *(AKA: “Anything but disciplined.)* Started buying in big at just under $1k, both BTC and GBTC (with IRA/Roth funds), stayed HODL thru the $20K to $4K downturn but learned from it. Rode it back up, bought a mansion, bought my 2 dream cars, dumped most of the rest at or near high, repurchased when it lost half+ its value, and am riding back up again.

429XY

Just to clarify — there are also “Trusts”, like the original, pre-ETF Grayscale BTC Investment Trust (Ticker: GBTC) as well as the more recently US-approved ETF (Exchange Traded Funds). The primary difference is an important one for BTC itself, as the ETF’s have to actually buy/hold the equivalent coins to represent the ownership people purchase of the ETF. So when you buy into an ETF you’re essentially paying for (or selling at) the spot BTC price, and ETF fees are very low. On the other hand, GBTC wasn’t tied directly to the price of BTC — so you could potentially (for example) buy it at a 30% premium over the spot BTC price and wind up selling at a 20% discount to it, which is obviously a massive loss for your investment…and that’s on top of relatively high 2-2.5% annual fees for management. And that’s the way it would go for normal investors — institutional investors would get an automatic discount rate buying in, at least in the earlier days of the Trust, making it much more likely to get out at a very favorable rate. GBTC was the only way to buy into BTC with Traditional or Roth IRAs for years, tho — and only if your brokerage allowed it. As such, I made the most of it and made several million (tax free in Roth), so it’s really a matter of knowing what you’re doing and understanding your best options.

someoneSomewhere2973

During the March 11-15 week alone the ETFs had about $3800m inflows (not counting GBTC which is a different crowd). Price was around $70k. You have to assume that some of those buyers know next to nothing about bitcoin. They are now down by 20% to their surprise, no wonder we are seeing some outflows. It does not really matter in the long run.

Financial_Design_801

Think pump will commence once IBIT passes GBTC, about $1.4 billion difference left Also tracking the 🇭🇰 & 🇨🇦 ETFs here https://twitter.com/hodl15capital/status/1785132281050374537?s=46&t=ihVglVXC0BQSbw6j57EoaA 🇭🇰 spot market closes soon, while US open in about 6hrs… UK spot ETNs coming online this month & then spot markets for institutions will be open 24/7 https://twitter.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1772300318535000299?s=46&t=ihVglVXC0BQSbw6j57EoaA

Financial_Design_801

Pump doesn’t start till Blackrocks IBIT passes Grayscales GBTC imo, $1.4 billion difference left As well as tracking HK & 🇨🇦 ETFs daily flows https://twitter.com/hodl15capital/status/1785132281050374537?s=46&t=ihVglVXC0BQSbw6j57EoaA https://www.hkex.com.hk/Market-Data/Securities-Prices/Exchange-Traded-Products/Exchange-Traded-Products-Quote?sc_lang=en (HK ETF live)

Saxonion

Greyscale’s Bitcoin trust was an early adopter, but their fees are significantly higher than the newer ETFs. Therefore, since the launch of the ETFs, redemptions have been flowing out of GBTC (likely to be reinvested in an ETF with better fees). Personally, I don’t know why Greyscale haven’t changed their fees to retain customers (I’m no expert, there may be a genuine reason they can’t). When ETFs first launched, inflows were so high that outflows from GBTC didn’t really make a dent, but as inflows to ETFs have slowed, so we’ve seen net outflows simply because more BTC is leaving Greyscale than is coming in to other ETFs. The good news is that Greyscale hold a finite amount of BTC, so a point will be reached where there are no more outflows (this is the 4-6 week projection in my original response based on how much they hold and average daily redemptions). I think it would be naive not to factor in daily outflows that average $120 million in BTC from Greyscale. But one day, boom, the BTC market will lose $120 million a day in selling pressure, and it’s worth keeping an eye on that timeframe.

manjmau

An honest and constructive answer! Thank you! Well, I do not know anything about this GBTC, will have to check it out. Thanks!

Saxonion

You also need to remember that GBTC bleeding into the market is currently serving as a sort of reserve liquidity. It’s hard to even notice the effect of the halving whilst Greyscale sell tens of millions in BTC every day. Of course, this can’t last forever (4-6 weeks I think based on current outflows), so whilst there is never normally a move quickly after the halving, I’d say that if anything, the delay may be longer this time round simply because GBTC is more than plugging the liquidity gap.

Oheson

GBTC and the ETFs have nothing to do with Bitcoin price.

Odd_Monk_132

Likely because of GBTC. The total flows to ETF's are now negative. GBTC still has $19bn that can potentially be sold. The next "halving" will be when they run out of bitcoin in about 3 months. https://farside.co.uk/?p=997. ETF flow chart.

ReedoIncognito

Hopefully at least another 60 days of crabbing that let's us accumulate while GBTC poops the bed. Then boom

MillionaireByTrade

Yet the people who set up SBF remain free. Also BlackRock obviously set up the GBTC to shed bitcoin to large investors for this cycle. Two cycle's in a row of massive manipulation from institutions.

Financial_Design_801

GBTC drops below 300k bitcoin with 297k & Blackrocks IBIT will flip with 23k whole coins (274k) BlackRock and Fidelity now hold ~428k Bitcoin, while GBTC blew a 600k bitcoin lead because they love 💩coining & law suits Regardless, the real whales took their lunch and accumulated 2% of the total supply, in 76 trading sessions. https://twitter.com/hodl15capital/status/1784223301121777869?s=46&t=ihVglVXC0BQSbw6j57EoaA

Financial_Design_801

GBTC drops below 300k bitcoin with 297k & Blackrocks IBIT will flip with 23k whole coins (274k) BlackRock and Fidelity now hold 428,108 Bitcoin, while GBTC blew a 600k bitcoin lead because they love 💩coining & law suits Regardless, the real whales took their lunch and accumulated 2% of the total supply, in 76 trading sessions. https://twitter.com/hodl15capital/status/1784223301121777869?s=46&t=ihVglVXC0BQSbw6j57EoaA

shantzy2

I was reading that GBTC now holds the record for most consecutive days of outflows for an ETF at 72 days.

Lurchco3953

Just a question. Reading what you said implies that GBTC selling puts negative pressure on the price of BTC. Then you point out that the reason is to buy a lower expense ratio BTC fund. Doesn't this in essence end up a wash as far as price goes? One sells x, then immediately buys x from another place. (I understand there are potential timing losses because in the real world it is not in n fact immediate in most cases, but for all intensive purposes it's 1 for 1, unless of course someone is selling and not rebuying but that's not what we were taking about.)

Objective_Digit

> btc crashed on etf approval No, it didn't. Although, that's what everyone predicted. It dumped a week later or so because of GBTC sell-offs.

dmx442

24.04. ETF Flow IBIT: $0 GBTC: $-130 Mil. Ouch

moonRekt

I’m basically all in on GDLC at this point. Dumped my LTCN and BCHG for the real thing when they hit 3x NAV and chased GDLC at 35% discount, will add more ETHE since that’s at less of a discount but closer to ETF. I cleaned up buying GBTC at 40% discount, sold a car to buy GBTC my new car is already paid off with the profits

arBettor

tbf markets **are** stupid sometimes. GBTC traded near a 50% discount for a while, and buying that was pretty close to free money.

Sugarbird676

I bought GBTC right at the beginning of the last bull run. Paid a 14 percent premium, and then that premium became a discount. I doubled my money when I would have tripled it. Never again. 

BitcoinMD

I have held GDLC since it came out. I think it’s a good option, but just we aware that it might be a long time before it’s converted to a true ETF like GBTC was.

pullupman

GBTC offloaded 130.4M USD worth of Bitcoin today. They still have 302,664 Bitcoin. Tick Tock Next Block.

Sharlach

There's been a lot of selling from GBTC due to their substantially higher fee's and the lack of "in kind" transfers for BTC ETF's, yes. They just launched a subsidiary fund with lower fees that their current customers can transfer into though, so that should reduce the outflows. I think FTX held a lot Grayscale shares too though and they're going through bankruptcy proceedings now, so that's been another source of sell pressure for them as well.

biba8163

> I have pretty strong conviction in them in a sea of other smoke and mirrors platforms cough ftx cough celsius Smoke and Mirrors is asking if Crypto.com is the best, safest exchange and CRO shills spamming the thread with positive reviews of the exchange and the virtues of holding CRO. No, no, don't use an exchange like Coinbase which Blackrock uses and is the custodian of ~$17 Billion of their BTC or custodian of $20+ Billion of GBTC Bitcoin, Crypto.com is the safest and has the best security. https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/blackrock-files-for-bitcoin-etf-5318689/ Kris Marszalek is a scammer and will be happy to make you a bagholder forever. From 2017-2019 Crypto.com/Monaco was accepted as a known scam and Kris Marszalek was a known scammer with repeated warnings them many many times. Those who didn't listen are now holding bags and shilling. https://np.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/6dbkui/scam_warning_monaco_ico/ https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/6cfw8y/warning_monaco_scammers_aggressively_advertising/ https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/79zyye/seems_like_mco_token_is_now_dead_sad_story/ https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/a5b4hz/let_the_scams_flow_out_of_the_window_monaco_and/ https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/nfyhss/fuck_you_cryptocom_for_preying_on_newbies_in_this/ https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/biaud9/monaco_mco_raised_26_million_in_ico_and_promised/ https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/i2t327/stay_away_from_the_cryptocom_scam_they_cheated/ https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/lm40p0/cryptocom_is_a_scam_do_not_use_it/ https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/jf8bx4/history_of_kris_cryptocoms_ceo/ https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/09/cryptocom-kris-marszalek-involved-bankruptcy-offshore-holdings-client-money-monaco.html Remember this scammers lured people into buying thousands of dollars of worthless CRO tokens and locking them for months to get s

jeff_varszegi

I'm a little bullish/impressed, since ETF inflows have slowed down recently but will likely pick up again. This is due to at least two factors: previous inflows including shifts away from GBTC, and portfolio managers beginning to recommend the ETFs to clients. I don't remember the numbers in terms of total market cap, but believe where previously advisors would often recommend that investors limit crypto to a very small amount if not avoiding it altogether, at BlackRock et al. they're now free to *recommend* it up to 2% or so of the portfolio value. (Going from memory, hopefully roughly accurate)

cyger

Just be warned, those discounts can stay around for a long time. I held GBTC for a long time from 2015 as it was a rare way to get BTC exposure in my IRA. But until the ETF was approved GBTC traded at a steep discount ~50% for a couple of years.

Odd_Monk_132

Article is nonsense. People are recieving their disbursments in bitcoin instead of cash because they want the bitcoin. MtGox isn't selling, they are giving back capital to the owners. The market is also fine and stable with GBTC selling off $16 billion.

harvested

150,000BTC? The market has already swallowed up with 1.1 million coins since broke through $42K (300K from GBTC and the rest from LTHs).

TheRadishBros

It’s how many coins they’re holding on behalf of their clients. Their clients are selling because their fees are higher than their competitors, so GBTC is selling their coins in parallel.

ConsciousOpinion5897

What do u mean by GBTC having several hundred thousand coins? Is it a financial stat like is it the “number of shares GBTC fund owns” that people are selling so that they instead buy other lower fee etfs?

President_ErectJoeyB

Ok, I’ll give it a shot but I’m not an expert by any means. GBTC is the Grayscale Bitcoin fund that was the predecessor to the ETF approvals. Fees are way higher than the ETFs so people are selling off shares in GBTC and moving them into lower fee ETFs like FBTC, IBIT etc. They still hold several hundred thousand coins they have been offloading them for months and it’s been the counter effect to incoming ETF flow. My point was once the GBTC sell off is complete in addition to the halving, in theory the price should go up. The constant outflow of GBTC has been the counter effect to halving and huge inflows of ETF money.

ConsciousOpinion5897

Sorry can you explain what do you mean by that? I’m a new bitcoin investor, I’m also not very new to the stock market. But I was trying to understand what you mean when “GBTC runs out of bitcoin (that will increase bitcoin price)”. I know GBTC is the biggest bitcoin ETF, but what do you mean about running out of coins. Is that like outstanding shares or smth else?

President_ErectJoeyB

Doesn’t GBTC still have a few hundred thousand coins left? When they run out.

donnie1977

GBTC had outflows this past week but ishares gained funds.

eyedude2898

Consider that much of the inflow to the other ETFs was *because* of the outflow from GBTC. Investors were moving to lower-fee options. Over time we will start to see the natural ongoing demand.

dLoneRanger

If the same pace continues, GBTC will run out of Bitcoin in 3 months. Then the parabolic run begins

AriesThef0x

ETF’s seem to be cooling down both on the buying side and the selling side, will be interesting to see if this trend continues. I’m curious to see if buys for Blackrock and Fidelity pick up once GBTC selling dies down.

SouthernGoal4836

This isn’t a knock on anyone but I actually think the BTC community, which I’m new to, is actually realistic. I see people here talking about DCA anywhere from $50 a week to $100 a month on the low end. Which is realistic. Over the the WSB board people are just throwing $5k to $20k on random 0 DTE options like where the F do people that dumb have that kind of money. I’m very late to the game here. I’ve owned bitcoin back in 2016 and have held GBTC here and there but for whatever reason now I really want to throw a lot of money at it. Bought $20k worth in my Roth IRA earlier this month and am planning to add $40,000 to that amount in the next year. Goal is to hopefully after a year have close to one coin. If it goes up and I’m not there, then I’m definitely not complaining. After I get one coin in ETF equivalent I’ll dollar cost average to something more reasonable like $200 a month. I could buy the one coin equivalent now but I’d rather do it over a year.

Financial_Design_801

S&P 500 company Raymond James subsidiaries declare holdings of Bitcoin  ETF GBTC worth $3m. Combined AUM $625B, dipping the tip in https://twitter.com/julian__fahrer/status/1782461613255295257?s=46&t=ihVglVXC0BQSbw6j57EoaA

harvested

It's not 40%? The market has absorbed 1.1 million coins quite nicely this year already. 300K from GBTC and the rest from LTH, just to put things in perspective.

Accurate_Sir625

There has never been a price jump right at the halving. The price jump comes in the weeks and months to follow. With GBTC outflows ebbing, miner output cut in half, Hong Kong ETFs coming supply shock is building. Remember, the big guys don't push an ETF to their clients until 90 days. 80% of USA still does not even know the halving happened. FOMO starts slowly this week.

HauntingBrick8961

Seems that holders of GBTC can convert to it too without tax ? The selloff may halt if so!

someoneSomewhere2973

So Grayscale now has a spin-off ETF called Bitcoin Mini Trust: * fee of 0.15% * transfer from GBTC to Bitcoin Mini Trust is a NON-TAXABLE event

Grunblau

Does that mean they will just let GBTC drain all of the way until it is only held by dead boomers that didn’t have an estate plan for their heirs?

Ok_Rabbit_8808

Sooo I have IBIT and GBTC are those sats? If not, how do I acquire sats?

Ok_Rabbit_8808

Ohhhh ok I have IBIT and GBTC already. I just had a slow moment lol

ElDiabloRamon

Bitcoin ETF ticker names: ……………….. BTC - Bitcoin AKRB - Ark invest 21shares Bitcoin ETF BITB - Bitwise Bitcoin Trust ETF FBTC - Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF FDIG - Fidelity Crypto Industry Digital Payments ETF GBTC - Greyscale Bitcoin Trust ETF IBIT - Blackrock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF HODL - Vaneck Bitcoin Trust ETF BTCW - WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust ETF EZBC - Franklin Bitcoin ETF BRRR - valkyre Bitcoin Trust ETF DEFI - Hashdex Bitcoin Futures ETF BTCO - InvestCo Galaxy Bitcoin ETF

Rude_Man_Who_Shushes

I hope life goes so well for me that I’ll never have to sell my bitcoin. Held for nearly 10 years. I will sell the shit out of my bitcoin related stocks and ETFs when the time comes and retire with generational wealth secured. Transferred half of my 401k in 2021 to GBTC and now sitting comfortably in IBIT, MSTR and various miners.

moonRekt

I sold most of my BTC to buy GBTC when it was priced 40% below NAV. So I’d love to be moving that money into cold storage BTC unfortunately my poor planning didn’t think ahead I’ll never get the transfer made today.

daemonpenguin

The Hong Kong funds should be out around the end of April. The UK funds should launch in May. GBTC should run dry around July. Interest rates will likely drop in the US around the third quarter. The American elections are in November.

EviltechRS

Nothing interesting will happen right after the halving. Sure it can go up some value, but that is still a normal behavior and/or FOMO. Hong Kong ETFs are not as huge as the US, so don't expect such major buying pressure as the US. It will sure help out to suck up GBTC unloading so that might relax some people that are freaking out on price fluctuations or negative inflows on a daily basis. What I personally think, the shock will be earlier as some major players entered the game. So instead of the usual December price pumps I believe it will be earlier, maybe August or September. August and September also kinda align with the idea of GBTC finishing unloading their reserves (if all BTC is released) then the real supply shock begins as each day there will be less BTC in the market and that will create a bigger FOMO. Also there might be other factors as companies reveal their holding. If there will be ETFs of BTC that might spark some courage and confidence in others to also begin buying or stacking more ETFs. So it could ignite a new wave of ETF buys which atm seems slowed down. Not a FA advice of course, just my two cents how I see this from my perspective. Good luck.

Rydog_78

If you really don’t want to do self custody, consider buying the BTC ETF that’s being offered by nine investment brokerages including GBTC. You will get exposure to the price of BTC but minus the responsibility of self custody.

Nutmasher

When I first learned of the halving and put some GBTC in every account. Tripled my money. A-Ha!! (My college-aged sons' retirement accounts will be getting the full FBTC treatment.)

tnel77

We’ll see a supply shock when GBTC knocks it off lol. Their outflows are the only thing holding us back.

19YoJimbo93

GBTC is good I hear.

CryptoAnarchyst

FBTC, IBTC, GBTC, ETHE Those are the top 4 funds available via stock market options to invest into the crypto markets. After that it gets much more complicated.

Indels

Yes! But my issue is they are and people are falling for it just by seeing the ETFs in flows. Yes GBTC had a lot of out flows too but essentially ETFs are paper bitcoin. I think only time will tell if they were a net positive or negative.

LivingTheTruths

I mean.. GBTC stopped selling chunks yet the price is still tanking lol. Demand doesnt seem to be very high

cyger

In since 2015, I've done alright, especially with my GBTC holdings in my IRA. But would have been done better, if I put more in. But it was a fearful time to buy crypto back then. Almost no one from the traditional finance world ever said anything positive about it. Now it seems obvious, but how much would you be willing to invest then when you wern't sure if crypto would survive.

Higher_Math

58k is coming you just gotta wait for the market to open tomorrow and GBTC dump.

Ok-Plastic2815

GBTC is not levered

monya91674

There is GBTC (greyscale btc).

Higher_Math

Actually I figured it out. Don't buy until GBTC dumps Monday if you think this is for real.there is a real tangible "next leg down".

Lookralphsbak

I've tried finding answers online but couldn't find anything. I hold GBTC stock, the price of the stock has been relatively positive even with the outflow, do you have any idea of how the stock price will react if outflows pump up?

heinzmoleman

At the current rate of them selling they will run out in July-August. If the outflows ease up it becomes a moot point because there is significant demand elsewhere. GBTC has been throwing a lifeline to those who are still trying to buy into BTC at these levels.

analogOnly

Yeah definitely leaning on the 6 month or possibly earlier this cycle. By earlier I'm really excited to see what happens when GBTC has outflows of BTC in double digits, probably in the next 6 weeks to 2 months.

SolVindOchVatten

I agree with what you said except that Grayscale will run out of BTC soon. It'll take over 3 years at this rate. What I do think is that a lot of the people selling are buying either other BTC ETFs or Bitcoin directly. I also think that the rate of selling will decrease because the sellers that really want out is decreasing. Also, Grayscale has hinted that they will decrease the management fee and then the GBTC could turn into an inflow.

Icy9250

What makes you think GBTC outflows are almost done? Even with all the outflows they’ve already had they are STILL the largest institutional holder. There’s a looong ways to go buddy.

recursive_lookup

I may be making a false assumption here, but I would have thought the money exiting GBTC would wind up in IBIT, FBTC, etc. resulting in an almost net zero loss/gain, but that doesn’t seem to be the case for much of it. Sure, some of it moved to the other ETFs, but big withdrawal days don’t seem to be going back into BTC. Any speculative thoughts on this?

tk42150

Me. I buy a few hundred dollars worth of bitcoin and self custody every paycheck. Then I put 50 into GBTC each paycheck. That's my "diversification"

Nice-Range-7653

Was buying GBTC at a huge discount to nav in my 401k with Fidelity for 2 years. Once it converted and ate up the discount I converted it all to FBTC and there it will sit until somewhere down the road when 401k’s will let you hold actual BTC at which point I will convert the FBTC to real BTC. All without incurring taxes. Gotta think long term.

irisuniverse

GBTC is held by individuals who are selling.

Jazzlike_Record_8915

But if more sell than buy, then price tends to go down... assuming there's no wash trading... Also, "net" matters: US seems to be a "net" seller of BTC, while China is a "net" buyer... even after taking the ETFs into account... why? Because of the number of whales who paid $200 for 2,000 Bitcoins in the US is high... they are not gambling on a bull run, they regret not exiting in 2021 cycle, and they are dumping now. Many paid next to nothing. These dormant whales have insisted on selling at $71-72K, therefore capping the price, and delaying the rally. On a net basis, Bitcoins therefore will shift to a higher % of East Asia ownership... despite so many miners being here. Miners keep operations globally - so it's not a useful indicator, as some are owned/controlled by companies/persons based abroad. Look at the daily chart for the last 10 trading days. 8 out of 10 saw the same exact pattern of dumping at US Open. GBTC and other whales. Compare it to the East Asia market price action... which has been more positive.

SevenGlass

The _spot_ Bitcoin ETFs are quite similar for the most part. A few worth calling out: Ticker|Notes -:-|:-- EZBC|Cheapest (Fees, not unit price. Unit price is irrelevant.) IBIT|Largest (Not sure why you would care about size past a certain threshold, but that's their selling point) FBTC|Custodies the bitcoin for you, no third party involvement GBTC|Very expensive. BITX|2X Leveraged. Don't do this unless you understand what you are doing. It doesn't just mean "it goes up twice as fast". Decay will eat you alive.

Public-Remove-111

This fee thing, I held GBTC since 2020 sold not too long ago, never saw any fees I had to pay, also went balls deep into mstr I thnk it will do better than any of these btc etf's

HurricaneHarvey7

The smartest possible thing you can do from here is unload GBTC, buy BTC and self custody it

Peace-of-Hart

I don’t see that as saving them. Investors have already been held hostage long enough to formulate their exit strategy and the point at which it makes sense to deal with the taxes and reinvest in the best value ETF. I doubt even with fee cuts GBTC will be the best value or any longer have consumer confidence as a reliable future major player. Plus, people are mad at GBTC’s betrayal. They talked as though they were activists and would respond to the market, but they didn’t do that at all. Instead, they made a terrible business decision for their own long term profits and abused their customer base in the process. Their brand will suffer badly in history is my guess. Bitcoin will be this monumental paradigm shift and people will note the largest holder when the markets opened got greedy and shrunk itself to maligned insignificance in record speed over a stupidly greedy miscalculation. Now I’ll tell you how I really feel.

LNCrizzo

They're buying GBTC? Are they stupid?

asml84

It’s true that we’re getting closer to equilibrium, but ultimately it’s not about GBTC. If GBTC sells 15k and IBIT buys 17k that’s fine. It’s important that we see new money entering the system.

DavidHobby

At 1.5% annual “expense” fee, $GBTC selling won’t be done until their AUM = $0.

ResponsibilitySea327

Why would the BTC ETF's, which are backed by actual BTC and required to track BTC via their prospectus not parallel BTC? There are *separate* ETFs that track Futures and any of the "Strategy" ETFs like BITO -- which have nothing to do with GBTC, HODL, IBIT, etc which own BTC directly and track BTC directly (during market hours).

weaponsmiths

I'm not sure it matters since people exiting GBTC are likely just moving to a lower cost ETF. Also the entity that was dumping GBTC shares by the billions used it to buy bitcoin, so not sure that news moved bitcoin in either direction once they were done selling, then loading up again.

EitherInvestment

The ETF inflows/outflows matter big time. yet. I didn’t say they don’t. If anything their impact has barely been felt yet. I said GBTC is not so relevant anymore. It’s the net inflows/outflows that matter.