ROI

Rum____Ham

> It’s pretty hard to come up with ways to spend $110B in a way that generates a high ROI. This sentence and the fact that it is true is such a bummer.

Lcdent2010

No different than me buying one of my partners out. The only issue with buybacks is that it is done when they don’t feel they can invest it into infrastructure or product development for a higher ROI. That indicates to me that a tech PE ratio of anything higher than 10:1 is no longer sustainable. Apple has matured to the point where no new markets are available.

ArbyVonCurlyFry

I can’t wait for this. Every company feeling the need to invest big AI. It’s going to turn out the ROI is shit.

Due_Size_9870

It’s pretty hard to come up with ways to spend $110B in a way that generates a high ROI. Apple is second only to JPOW when it comes to printing money and they are using that money to invest in their own money printer. This has generally offered a pretty high ROI.

Ok-Board4893

> no AI product, no EV, streaming sucks, VR failure  > > just financial engineering and a co built around iphone + peripherals > > at some point market will realize they bought back richly priced shares and there were higher ROI alternatives if only tim wasn't a dork  reddit regards getting bearish on apple, must be a perfect time to buy

IlllIlIIlIlII

>and there were higher ROI alternatives if only tim wasn't a dork  You guys are always shitting on the CEO when the company is struggling XD dude, under Tim Apple rose a lot, they've dumped Intel and made a beast of SoC and integrated their whole ecosystem into a perfection, there's only so much a company can expand, nothing last forever.

iroquoisbeoulve

they've been usurped in market cap rankings in the time they've been aggressively buying back their own stock.  no AI product, no EV, streaming sucks, VR failure  just financial engineering and a co built around iphone + peripherals at some point market will realize they bought back richly priced shares and there were higher ROI alternatives if only tim wasn't a dork 

Worf_Of_Wall_St

And the multi-multi-billions spent on hardware and engineer salaries trying to do things with generative AI. At some point these expenses need to actually produce an ROI.

PutinsLostBlackBelt

In a lot of big companies directors and above are often freeloaders and get cut regularly because the ROI gets lower as they advance. If you’ve ever worked in a large tech company before you’ll have noticed a lot of senior people who don’t know or do shit outside a small area and basically gatekeep the knowledge to maintain a job.

datafisherman

Yes, that makes a good deal of sense. Outside view, their success will depend on the efficacy and efficiency of their sales process. I recalled you were an engineer. I am more of a DIY person in virtually every respect, so I am coming at this from an less informed vantage, but I should not be paying for what I am now, and yet I am. I should obviously just pause my subscription while my usage is zero, and yet I don't. The economics of hassle don't make any sense. This has to be worth something, when appropriately modified to suit their primary market. Lots of businesses just keep paying for the option value or to avoid the switching cost. I will have to look into CLMB. I recently sold SFTC (on the TSX), which does a similar thing primarily for the biggest horizontal enterprise providers. I think they have the opportunity to take a toll on the growth of enterprise AI, across their expanding customer-base, in a similar way that Ogilvy & Mather, the premier advertising agency, took a toll on the growth of the biggest consumer products and brands in the second half of the last century. The Ogilvy reference is Buffett's, but I expect there will be similarities in their relationship-based and ROI-focused business models. The only reason I sold was to concentrate in better opportunities during volatility, beyond the extra cash I could muster. I think it has a promising future. (The company I have been buying is unmentionable here. Lol.)

New_Employee_2506

Investing Short term in the market has a -25% through +25% ROI projection. The rest are outliers. The answer is about half sell at a profit and half sell at a loss.

MeetIndependent1812

What a da indeed. I was hoping for some more upward movement today but might take a while as long as penny flippers trade for a few bucks instead of holding for the great ROI

BarracudaUnlucky8584

Great return, how long were you holding for? Looks like an average of about 165% ROI?

8myDolla

Healthcare - Horse has left the barn. Today you can get decent care if you look. Emergency and critical care is the best in the US. Housing prices - reaching levels where American families will learn to live with each other as generational wealth will not create enough to by homes. Renting will be expensive and will continue where the ROI to LL will be neutral. What that means is that selling real estate will take time but very profitable. Renting will be okay. Gun Violence will continue. War mongering - will continue - we need to refresh our old tanks with new ones

Investiv

I hear you, I just think there are a lot of very intelligent people who know what they're doing at these companies. And if generative AI didn't give them a competitive advantage, megacaps wouldn't be shelling out billions on it. I think they've already done the math and the ROI has already been demonstrated to them, and that's why these multibillion dollar data centers are going up. If it were really just a gamble, they wouldn't all be dedicating this much capex towards it. Some, but not this much. It seems the consensus is that companies who don't spend this money are going to be left in the dust of those that do.

Spins13

It’s money now vs maybe money in the future. There is always the risk that generative AI flops and they built a whole lot of architecture for nothing. I am still very bullish on AMZN, it is my biggest position. I also think this is a good thing. However, increasing Capex hugely is always a gamble. The AI demand is extremely strong at the moment. But what happens if a lot of companies realise that they are not getting good ROI for their AI programs ? Another issue could be that the billions invested today would quickly become obsolete due to technological progress. H200 may make H100 irrelevant and who knows about H500 ?

swim-52

Salary is not a return on investment. It's compensation for labor. If you invest in your business *and* work at it you should expect a salary (which in accounting would go words expenses even though you pocket it) and if your business is successful there would also be profits separate from the salary. You take that profit and divide it by your initial investment to determine your ROI.

ponythehellup

Sorry if it came off like I was discrediting your validity because you are an immigrant. Not what I tried to do. Almost anyone (literally 99% of us) who lives in North America is an immigrant or the descendent of one. I mentioned you being an international student solely because the majority of student loans in the USA are provided by the federal govt. and not available to non-citizens. I had assumed that if you studied in the US you wouldn't have access to those loans. Digging through your account, it's pretty clear you studied somewhere in Canada so your experience with student loans is not directly transferrable just as my experience here in the US is not directly transferable to your situation and experience. 70k debt for an engineering degree actually does make sense; even in the US where some trades pay very well. If OP had said they took the debt for a humanities field (or something else that the data shows to have a poor ROI), it would have made more sense to lay into them for their decision but actually taking 70k of debt for the one field that basically guarantees you an above-average salary upon graduation isn't illogical. I'd actually make an argument that this is one of the scenarios where taking on a decent debt load early in life isn't the absolute worst decision OP could've made. OP's hands are tied when it comes to tuition fees; 70k is a little better than average for graduates from most state schools. US college is significantly more expensive. Looks like a semester at McGill is about 29k CAD. That's 21k US. A semester at The University of Missouri for an out-of-state or international student is 29k USD. McGill is one of the best universities in the world, UM is a respectable but not groundbreaking institution.

AllStuffAround

If there is a house for $100K where you want to live - get it. The interest rates are very high, so indeed you need a much better ROI if you invest your money, and get a mortgage. Mortgage + investment is also a risky proposition. What if you loose your job? Often it happens when the economy is not doing well, so real estate prices are going down, and stock marker is going down but your mortgage stays the same. You would be in a really tough position.

tyros

Anywhere from losing all/going bankrupt (most likely) to gazillion % ROI. High risk = high reward.

semicoloradonative

Some people don't want to wait for the ROI. Quite a few people bought the last dip and sold out with profit, and there are questions about future dividend payouts.

Lumpy_Taste3418

or neither. You don't have an equation here, you just have lines. P=f(t) and nothing else? If you believe price is a function of time and nothing else, investing isn't your game. You might try a price relationship associated with relevant variables: earnings, interest rates, growth prospects, asset base, ROE, ROI, ROA, etc. etc. etc.

BAGross85

Precisely. And I can make a heck of a lot larger ROI by buying in at $500, than at $5,000. But I’ll probably be buying in with ITM Calls around $1,500. Then convert to shares if we bounce from those levels.

Realawyer

I own a restaurant. Opened during COVID. My ROI has been zero. I'm just happy the restaurant hasn't required more capital and I'm hoping margins get larger. Everything has gotten expensive ... Food, labor, insurance. It sucks.

McKoijion

ESPN paid a tiny fraction to broadcast the women's tournament of what TNT and CBS paid to broadcast the men's. Huge ROI on women's sports. I really think it comes down to the convenience of seeing a given sport and the storylines, not the actual sport. MLB, NBA, NFL, etc. rose to prominence because they were free and were on network TV all the time. Now they're getting locked behind ultra-expensive paywalls. New sports that appear in free, easily accessible places are going to get a ton of viewers. That includes women's sports.

Gnat_Man_1112

Probably a better ROI anyway 

bagholdersunited

I'm buying more though. The ROI timeline is definitely longer than 2 years lol

TrajanoArchimedes

Now you only need to make three fiddy to get more than a 100% ROI

Able_Bar231

expectations are high, but I will say the one thing that offers some level of confidence to me is that the CEO spends completely opposite of how bezos was spending. This CEO operates for cost cutting, efficiency and maximizing share holder value it seems. I think last week, the larger trend in the cloud computing space is CapEx is increasing and customer spend is up on cloud offerings this quarter. The ad business is recovering too, so guidance should look good in theory. Meta was punished for their aggressive spending on metaverse once again without a real ROI or even pathway forward for an ROI. I'd say what might dent confidence with AMZN though is the retail spend, given the GDP growth this quarter has slowed down. Personally I'm long with shares, and currently holding some call contracts, though haven't decided if I'll sell before tomorrow or hold through earnings due to FOMC report

justletmesignupalre

If you have to ask what any of this is, you will probably lose your money if you put it in. I wouldn't recommend it. Keep researching, don't invest in what you don't know. Everything has a risk level. Day trading is very difficult and studies have shown that at the end of the day, its mostly luck and/or the same ROI than investing in index funds on the long term. Margin is more similar to an inverse Russian roulette.

Worf_Of_Wall_St

The demand for their products is very real (for now), and there is a massive buildout of data centers happening on the belief that AI is such an amazing ROI that the need for more AI computational power basically infinite. So many companies are just itching to spend a substantial portion of their labor costs in AI projects aimed at eliminating most of that labor cost "soon" or "eventually". These dreams of massive AI ROI will mostly end in failure, but it will take several years for this to play out. I wouldn't bet against the hype in that time. You mentioned Cisco, to draw a parallel a lot of companies bought networking hardware way ahead of their needs because they had big dreams and investor cash to burn, so after the dot com crash there was a lot of cheap barely used Cisco hardware available.

ToonaFish867

I have always had a 401k ever since I started working. The current one is fund-managed, so the returns are terrible. I am up 10% in the last 3 years since the account began when I started a new job. The majority of the profits are obviously from company matching. My self-directed account is making 47% APY. This will, of course, not be sustainable when the world economy faces recession. If I can hedge, sell into cash, or short the market close to the right timing when the recession comes around, I would maintain most of this performance. A more realistic ROI for me would be 25-35% APY with recession years included. I also have a crypto portfolio which has of course performed better than stocks, as long as you time the bottom properly to get that 20-100x ROI. Converted into percentages, the bull cycle APY would be 2,000% to 10,000%.

travistrue

Yep. I think most managed index accounts follow this same philosophy, and even buy into the S&P to some degree to further stabilize those gains. So the question is: if gains can be guaranteed then why doesn’t everyone do this? Mainly cuz not everyone invest and the gains are still pretty marginal to the average person. The amount of money that they have to put down to get a worthwhile ROI isn’t worth the fancy vacation/life experience that they can have right now while they’re young. You can’t put a price on that if you had to put a price on that.

Baccaratfunk

I read for a while, and it seems like on average  the majority of people here make +10,000% on their portfolio and then lose it all?  Maybe there are some heroes lower in the feed? Well I recently picked 5 stocks, three which doubled and, tripled, and quadrupled, including a little penny stock ISUN at .06 cents.  I picked day before it popped.  And . . . I did the same.woth the other 2 but they weren't penny stocks.  I picked the 2 top gainers the day after that.  I used RSI, MACD, FTSO, and VOLUME to screener and then manually sifted through hundreds of stocks. Ok, so why was it so easy for me?  Honestly. . . I can't be that lucky.  But still, that not 10,000%.  Seems like the people here are talking like casino gamblers.  Exaggerated stories.edited to sound like the partially true portions are the highlights and reality of their imagination. I am no Keith Gill . . . I didn't research the companies in depth apart from reading the press release histories and searching for long term expectation allowing room for growth . . . ISUN of course was a day trade pick, not long term . . .  But my choices were perfect?  The 2 that didn't pop off didn't fail and they were also penny stocks.  I use the float now as well. That said . . . I have found a Stock that has potential to pop 2-3k%.   That is like these stories in the thread . . . Perhaps these people are using options and that's the reason for the absurd gains they claim to have lost our of.greed? Look . . . If I am up 2000% on my portfolio in a matter of weeks? . . . I AM SELLING FOR SIGN OF TROUBLE.  Who buys NVIDIA at $40 doesn't sell at $800?  Why hold on then?  You won.  Why the greed?  A stock has to drop to be real.  Look at Tesla.  It will go back up . . . But months . . . Like 12-18. . .  What wait to see if China attacks Taiwan I baffled.by the single.stock investors.who onto what MUST come down who apparently all live here. That said . . .  I am not a professional so therefore I will reveal my Single stock lock here on Monday night . . . I am hoping it drops Market open because every 14 cents right now represents about 15k in gains for me . . . Anyway . . . Coincidentally it had a 1-4 split like GameStop . . . Was way under ranked in popularity. . . . And unfortunately has the potential to 4x at market open before I can place the order.  But basically . .  $500 could.be 150k in 47 weeks. So . . . You don't have to be rich to get a Great ROI. I no everyone want s the 100% gain in 20 minutes . . . But I haven't seen anything like it before. Your opinions?  I am holding the reveal because I don't want the price to go up right away . . . Not that this conspicuously placed reddit post with period thumb will cause any commotion  Thanks to all the honest replies . . . I will avoid kitties, NERD like behavior and Grandpa esque statements . . . Dumb Bunny Out 

lsdiesel_1

Sports team owners sell for way more than they pay when buying the team. What was the ROI for the peewee football team investment?

diytrades

I'm making 3% per month back ROI on a website I bought 9 months ago making $1200 per month with display ads. Site uses a good ad agency and they pay me out monthly after taking 15%. I paid $40k but if I were in your position I would do $20k and look for no less than $600 a month net profit. Your ROI is 100% in 3 years. Buy another profitable website or keep it or sell it down the road. Also you could use the extra cash flow to pay off or extra on your car until its paid off. You can do this passively too although you need someone else to maintain it. The person I bought my site from is maintaining it as he has a small team and runs many sites. Has all been worth it in my experience.

barkinginthestreet

Suggest reading about the recent net-metering changes in California, as well as how the daytime power price went to zero recently. If your ROI is based on current prices paid and payable, and not potential future prices, I would not make the investment. Utility scale solar makes sense, residential not so much (unless paired with on-site storage).

Chornobyl_Explorer

Sorry bro, ain't helping you with schoolwork or whatever you got going on. There's too many variables to give a decent answer and a 5 second Google search would tell you as much. A home is a place to live, it doesn't generally give a ROI. Investements does. Now if you buy a second property you can have a ROI but you'd need to have good insurance and assume at least 1% maintenance per year starting the year the home was built (aka 30year old property, expect a ~30% maintenance cost coming up.)

eolithic_frustum

Shy of 40+ years, but I've got nearly 20 under my belt, and I'm the son and grandson of financial professionals, and I've worked in financial analysis and marketing for about 10 years at this point. Here's advice and wisdom I would give to my younger self if I could go back: 1. The market goes up and goes down, and you cannot predict the future returns of the market. It's better to give up some potential gains now if it means smoothing out the ride up. 2. The belief that you should take more risk when you're younger is bullshit. I would have gladly taken 5% per year instead of having to pay dearly for early mistakes and arrogance. 2.5. You're better off building a base of safety and security, and THEN start doing other stuff that has the potential to juice your returns. 3. I've tried every trading strategy you could name, every complicated option setup you could come up with. Even though I had a 71% win rate, my average annual return was about 11%. I could have saved myself so much time and stress and worry just... investing that same money in long term, buy-and-hold blue chips, ETFs, or index funds. Trading is a fool's errand unless you make it your life, and what kind of life is that? 4. My worst investments were always great investments that I sold too early. 5. My best investments were carefully studied and scrutinized stocks that the market had unceremoniously dumped. "Buy when there's blood in the streets," as they say. Ignore the madness of crowds. 5.5. Don't wait for recessions or bear markets to buy index funds like the S&P 500... but never hesitate to double down when they happen. 6. It often doesn't really matter what your investment strategy is, so long as it has worked long term and you can stick with it. The biggest losers I know are the people that try a different thing every few months. 7. The only things that make stocks go up and down is buying and selling. Fundamentals? Technicals? Patents? Macroeconomics? Inflation? Discounted cash flow models? These are all stories. What you want to know is what motivates *people* on a psychological level to buy or sell. You want to know what "sell stories" are temporary BS that are spooking people out of the market (Covid was a big'un). And you want to know what "buy stories" are sustainable long term (quality, smaller caps, value, profitability, conservative asset investment, etc.). 7.5. That said, solid fundamentals is the best long-term "buy story" you can find. Fundamentals are the closest thing to gravity in the stock market. Everything else is haruspicy. 8. Don't waste your energy trying to come up with clever ways to beat the market. Think about what your goal is. Is it to beat the market? Or is it to make money? If you hyperfixate on ROI, you will most certainly take too much risk. 9. The people who say that the stock market is like gambling or the lottery are idiots. There are only about 10000 stocks to pick. And of those, historically, 21% have survived AND outperformed the market over 20 years. If you've ever taken a statistics class, this is just a basic-ass math problem. If you pick 20 stocks at random, you have a 60%+ chance that at least 4 of your stocks would have gone to beat the market over 20 years. I'll take those odds any day. 10. The only way you can possibly fuck up making money in the stock market is if you consistently do dumb shit: Time horizons that are too short, buying stocks with trash fundamentals, too much risk-taking, no diversification, no safety net, selling too soon, etc. 11. Stock investing won't make you rich on its own. The amount of money you can afford to put in the stock market can. That means that your skills and professional development are usually a better long term investment than the market. 12. Stock brokers and financial advisors do not have your best interest in mind. Their incentives are not your best interest... even if they're supposedly a fiduciary. 13. Don't listen to dogmatic assholes... Including me. Bogleheads have it partially right. Value investors have it partially right. Modern Portfolio Theory assholes who pray at the altar of Smart Beta have it partially right. Don't worry so much about who's right, or what's best. No one can know what will do the best in the years to come. Focus instead on what Charlie Munger suggests: Avoid making idiotic mistakes and you'll be fine.

argothewise

Fair enough. It's generally true though that US and international have traded places in good ROI rates.

Willing_Group7351

Of course they’re going to figure out a way to dodge the tax. That’s my whole point.  Good tax policy = billionaires dodge a bit of taxes but their money stays in America Bad tax policy = billionaires sell their American stocks and buy up all the oil fields in the Middle East because their after tax ROI is better

qw1ns

>Tomorrow Berkshire sold every stock and bought 100% VOO BRK.B is cash cow, see its P/E while VOO is hyped baby (compared to BRK.B) see VOO P/E. In short, for the same ROI, investors pay less for BRK.B than VOO which has extra Risk Premium. Buffet clearly tell that he is not making money from stock market but from the company value. If such is the case, why should he divest BRK.B (higher valued) and buy VOO (lower valued)? That it ends!

Glittering_Bill9176

98.5% non institutional investors. Foreign and private money. It’s a slush fund where foreign interests can get a high ROI.

whofusesthemusic

> job sure can, but seems this insider doesn't think the ROI for holding is there.... Dont worry im sure he doesn't know anything, being the unofficial COO an all....

R-nw-

You see this is where the problem lies. Not criticizing what you wrote, just genuinely want to say that we have been fed enough propaganda and lies to make us believe that too versus bottom crap. It’s not top versus bottom or other way around. It’s all about lifting the middle class. What about tax breaks and social incentives that help the middle class rise a bit more? You are forgetting or plainly don’t know that the golden age of American life was when the marginal taxes were high, so that top pays more. No matter how much the industry or too wealthy individuals complain, they all eventually fall in line and pay up. The benefits of propping up middle class are immense and quite frankly immeasurable. Money in the hands of middle class working citizens means direct savings or expenditures. Which then is money in the pockets of corporations. OTOH, you give tax breaks to corporations and rich people and they will happily buy islands or invest where the cost of production is lowest. Capitalism doesn’t care about America or rest of the world. The only undisputed principle of capitalism is ‘highest ROI’. No corporate or capitalist ever does anything out of the goodness of their hearts. In fact, corporations and these people at the top will ruin and squeeze every last cent of anything breathing because of simple greed. That’s what made them what they are. You expect a Bezos or Musk or the Sacklers to ever do anything remotely resembling public interest? Everything else is pure Chutzpah. Reg your point about bringing back manufacturing and other jobs to America, that ship sailed long long ago. The only way any jobs are coming back to America are with government intervention for there is simply no incentive large enough for businesses to do so. Middle class is the one that lifts top and bottom at the same time. And that’s the way it has always been.

Trick-Interaction396

If US Treasure Bonds fail you’re going to have much bigger problem then ROI. All your money will be worthless and you will be fighting for food and water.

No-Champion-2194

>It also demonstrates the company has nothing better to do with their cash - not a great sign It demonstrates that they are generating more cash flow than they need. New investments will generally have a lower ROI than their current business, so returning that cash to shareholders is a good plan. >It also tends to pump up stock prices short term for management that might want to cash out on options That is simply not true. Rule 10b18 ensures that buybacks are not done in a way that would manipulate stock prices in the short tern. Buybacks are a long term benefit, because the number of shares across which profits are allocated is permanently reduced, increasing EPS going forward.

GiraffeAs_

300% ROI or bust tomorrow 🫡

RoyalFail6

Still beating the ROI of daytraders here 

turingchurch

All investment is tied to rates. If the return on investment, after adjusting for risk, is lower than the risk-free interest rate, then it simply won't happen. If it takes two years to build an apartment, for it to be more attractive than a treasury bond returning 5%, you must earn 5% of 1.05^2 = 5.5% of your original investment. If interest rates are 5.4% (as is currently the case for three-month treasuries), this becomes 6%. And you have to account for the fact that building an apartment building is inherently riskier than just buying treasuries. I see an estimate of $6-8 million for the construction cost of a [20-unit apartment building](https://www.multifamily.loans/apartment-finance-blog/multifamily-construction-costs-an-investor-guide/). At $7 million, you must be earning $420,000 per year to be competitive with treasuries (remember, you must be earning 6%). Divided over 20 units and 12 months, that's at least $1750 per unit per month, and we're not even getting into the costs of running the apartment building. If interest rates were 4%, ROI must be 4.3% and this drops to $1260. At 3%, ROI must be 3.2% and this drops to $930. So as long as interest rates are high, it makes more sense to build luxury and higher-end apartments than it does to build cheaper/affordable apartments. However, these are just back-of-the-envelope calculations, and it's likely that lowering interest rates would also increase the cost of construction itself if it induces demand for building materials. In addition, a lot of the cost has to do with what you mentioned, permitting issues and obstruction; eliminating those can increase construction and lower prices without having to lower rates either.

BothBasis9

New tech never had an immediate ROI. Social Media companies had no revenue for years before they figured it out exploded to the largest companies on the market. (Think Goog and Meta for instance).

Key-Ad331

Is all this spend on AI really worth the ROI? I don't think so.

ShadowLiberal

I've got to agree with you. Facebook has completely lost track of how much of an ROI they can even get with this technology. The more money you burn on R&D the worse your ROI is going to be even if you do get a working product eventually. Think of it this way, the refrigerator was a great invention, and no doubt the first company to bring it to market brought in a lot of revenue from doing so. But how much of a profit did they make off of it? If they spent $250 million on it then they probably made a boatload of profits. But if they spent over $50 billion dollars on the R&D then they were deep in the red on their investment for many years to come, simply because it takes a LONG time to make $50 billion in profits on anything to recoup your expenses. And that hypothetical example isn't even taking into account how new competition rose in the space in later years, driving prices down, and increasing the amount of time needed to recoup the hypothetical $50 billion in R&D costs. Bottom line, even if you're right that something will be a great and highly successful invention, that doesn't mean that there's no cost too high to pay in R&D to develop said product.

Powerful-Call5148

For all you regards that can't read between the lines.... or simply can't f\*cking read!.....  META, MSFT, AMZN,.......MAG 38 = Massive CAPEX Spending NVDA = Emptying pockets of customers UNTIL it hurts and their anoos is bleeding......  AMD = "We don't believe in MOATS, we believe in a cheaper more efficient alternative with better ROI"  That is all. Now go back to your f\*cking Archie comics and your regularly scheduled jerk-off session ....... 

Radiant_Ad_6986

Unfortunately, Zuck has not yet earned the benefit of the doubt after the money pit that has been metaverse and probably are correlating AI investment with that. Poor ROI and unending loses. I personally think AI is different as lots of use cases for AI within their ecosystem of apps, to increase engagement, drive automation, build ad campaigns etc. But will only get the benefits of it probably closer to year end and 2025.

Boomer_here

What is the ROI of a Facebook ad if you just scroll by and never click on it?

skilliard7

Why should they invest in a project that will never provide a ROI? This is just an endless money pit. After 4 years they have very little to show for it.

AP9384629344432

On the other hand, META consistently shows an ability to generate a high ROIC (20s-30s). Oil companies will never match that on a consistent basis. So you have a company that has a track record of generating stellar FCF, and the question is if this particular capex will be a waste. I mean AI or ML or whatever you call it clearly played a huge role in Facebook's success with ads. From the beginning they have been hiring tons of ML/AI researchers and investing heavily into relevant software. I'm just skeptical that LLMs specifically will be an extremely high ROI investment. But higher than the risk free rate is a really low bar imo...

_hiddenscout

Well a big part of METAs bull run was from the idea of the year of efficiency. That’s part of the reason why the stock sold off so much, was the increase capex spend to the metaverse.  To the point though, with all the investment in AI, what will be the ROI. All that capex shouldn’t be required if ML was already working. 

_hiddenscout

I don't think it will have a big drop, but I do think investors are going to want to see some ROI from the investments and all the talk about AI. MSFT has been trading at much richer valuation due to probably AI. I do agree with the fact they are an amazing business and I love Azure, but if they announce or talk about copilot not doing well, I think that is going to be a concern for investors.

_hiddenscout

I mean as an investor the question still becomes what the roadmap? Why so much? What is the ROI of the investment? Also would be curious to know how much of this is actually new versus what is being used from their earlier stuff with ML and what not.

CanYouPleaseChill

It's unlikely that the ROI is higher than the risk-free rate. This is why dividends matter. Less money for companies to piss away on nonsense. Oil companies are spending less on capex than Big Tech. The times they are a changin'.

AP9384629344432

I'm unconvinced this AI capex will drastically increase earnings growth and fuel a perpetual capex boom that will sustain GPU-makers. My guess is that the capex comes down drastically in a few years in a simultaneous slowdown once the ROI of these chatbots, image generators, etc. turns out to be not so impressive. Big tech will thrive on their existing moats, however.

AP9384629344432

Genuine question: Have we seen evidence that AI capex spending has increased EPS for any company? Not talking about the companies supplying the capex. Nor am I talking about general operational performance of the big tech companies. I'm talking about ROI of the post-ChatGPT capex boom.

Environmental-Bowl43

When will regards realise that it doesnt matter what anything does, or how useless something seems, if there is an ROI then its gonna be huggggeeeee

Dapper-Development79

Have not met expected ROI

sapatista

Does the cape rate matter when the ROI not including equity growth is in the mid teens as that other commenter said?

GetRightNYC

The max possible ROI was less than the cost of the contracts as one point.

value1024

Short call will require a lot of margin, so your ROI is going to be off...if you are bullish, get more money by changing your delta, either with puts or with calls....a short call is the opposite of bullish and carries a negative delta.

ykoreaa

Great ROI. One of the best I've seen in past few weeks

discodropper

Not for the last 50 years it hasn’t been. You want a solid ROI? Put it in the stock market. No other asset class comes close to those returns.

CryptographerOk2928

Why is it that when I YOLO I print , but the moment I try to follow the trend making only 20% ROI feels like nothing …. It doesn’t tickle me as much as knowing I could lose it all or better…. WIN it all

PomegranatePlus6526

The best investment % return wise was vacant land. I found out about the land because I owned the house across the street. So I got curious who owned it and what they were going to do with it. Turned out the owner was way behind on the taxes. After 3 years of watching and waiting the county foreclosed, and I went to the auction. I paid $700 for the land and sold it a few years later for $25k. ROI was 3570%. No I sold it. I bought it with the plans of putting a duplex on the land, so I was saving up money to do that. Then covid hit, and the real estate market went through the roof. People were going crazy trying to buy everything in site, and some realtor called me up out of the blue to ask if I would sell the land. I said hell yeah I will. When the real estate market turned sour in 2007 I owned a house I couldn't sell, we had just gotten married, so I rented it out to keep from losing it. Doing that turned me onto real estate investing, and I became a landlord. Over the next 12 years one unit turned into 20. Then I finally sold the house I couldn't sell in 2022 after owning it for 22 years, so I decided to sell them all. I turned the proceeds from the real estate around and bought VGT, and SOXX in 2022 as tech stocks were tanking. So the moral of the story is save and invest. When something is on sale is when you should be buying. To get my rental portfolio to the size it was I did something that was a great personal risk. I cashed out $125k in 401k that I had and paid the taxes and penalty. It gave me access to about $80k in spendable cash, but with that money I was able to buy six rental units. From the six rentals I made all the taxes and penalties back in under a year. So while I didn't know for sure how the risk would pay off I suspected I would do pretty well. That was in 2014. I have already made over $600k from my investment 10 years ago, and still have 6 units left to sell. Four are under contract and two will be listed in the next couple of weeks. Through this whole experience I can say that it's only through failure that I found success because there were at least 3 rentals that I bought and had to sell and take a loss because it was a losing proposition to keep them or try to renovate them. You don't have to win all the time you just have to be right more times than you are wrong.

dzhopa

I've met the type of IT "professionals" that could walk into an organization with a mature Linux or Unix deployment, and say with a straight face that it should be replaced with Windows server because faster/cheaper/easier. They are low information, low skill, and legitimately afraid of the command line. If there's not a GUI and a setup wizard then they have no idea what to do. Pushing Windows server in that context is to cover up for their lack of ability. I've seen it play out a few times. The ROI is never there, and the dipshit pushing it resigns after fucking everything up with their shortsightedness. Most of these folks eventually leave IT, or get permanently demoted and stuck on the service desk because they couldn't cope with how scripting and programming skills have become required tools for systems engineering.

1952Mary

The US bond markets were dead for a decade. Banks that bought bonds failed. The ROI was shit. Now the government cannot service their debt and the only way to postpone default is to issue more currency. Other countries have recognized that the US dollar is loosing value at an alarming pace and they are looking for other options to store wealth. This is not a political problem it’s a national problem. Joe just happened to be in charge but the economy was going to be in decline regardless who was president.

CryptoAnarchyst

The 457b is limited to $23K/year while the 401k is $69K... but you're not going to hit that on annual basis most likely. Only other difference is that 457b doesn't have early withdrawal penalties but that is easily avoided with the 401k by doing the 5 year withdrawal plan... So I would say put the money into the one that has the best ROI funds.

PapaCharlie9

The screenshot does not include the details of the position structure. Just that it is a 3-legged TSLA trade. Can you write out the actual trade position in text please? Something like -1 TSLA 100/101/102c MM/YY @ $X.XX? > This trade seems too good to be true, am I making an elementary mistake and missing something? Without the position details I can't say much, but what exactly is it that you think is so hard to believe? Every short call fly looks like this, so I'm not seeing what the big deal is. It would be nice to know what the buying power reduction would be to open this trade. We could estimate this if we had the position details, but alas ... Let's say it costs you $1000 to open this trade. So your ROI is $22/1000 = 2.2%. You could make 5% risk free by putting $1000 in a money market fund, so that means this trade would be a **opportunity cost** of -2.8%, and carry risk with it on top. The BP reduction needs to be less than $22/X = 5%, X = $440 for it to start making sense, but that's not account for the $477 of risk. In terms of ROR, you got $22/477 = 4.6%, so you *still* are not beating the 5% risk-free rate. So why is this fly a big deal?

Elusivestone

Yeah that's fine, you can miss out on 200% ROI's. But yeah, that's part of their jobs, right? You know, preventing infections, administering medication? Moreover, it's wildly misrepresenting the facts to say, "Sales" numbers will be coming in in Q4... No, Sales numbers ***will*** come in Q2, and Q3 through Q4. In-patient contracts are already secured, and being secured as we speak. About to announce out-patient contracts soon.... Maybe you should do a little more DD before you try and undermine the DD.

bingosssy

I saved up 15k for grad school tuition (I'm on scholarship so it'll help with small bills and fees and living expenses). I'm wondering instead of using up this bundle to invest it and sit on it for around four years and take my return and pay off student loans, grad and undergrad. I'm a noob to investments in practice but understand vocab and terms and ideas. In what ways can I invest this over 4-5 years In school to get 3-400% ROI? Don't care how crazy it might be, just curious of what to do with my money.

PseudoTsunami

Track tickers, strategies/setups for selection, performance improvement. You'll need to normalize the annualized ROIC, At-Risk adjusted ROI, RO-Margin Used, etc. to properly compare strategies. You'll also custom define some of those denominators like "at-risk" because using L'Hopital's rule isn't of use. When I first started, I'd have great data comparisons of maybe 50 types of trade setup/strategies for every 1000 trades, but eventually my style morphed so much that my strategies, adjustments were undefinable so tracking made less sense, but the tracking definitely helped me evolve to that type of trader. Tracking for accounting or OCD journal purposes is not necessary because your broker does that for you, but it would be nice to have a customized log file instead of what they provide, i.e. IV, underlying spot at trade initiation or even a parsing tool for their log files.

Downtown_Tough_2343

Treasures Direct. - T- bills are at 5+% ROI for the 4 week, bullet proof.

JeepJohn

He doesn't do much for Tesla anymore. Hell his public image is doing more harm then good at this point. And from a pure economic look. Holding that money in say a war chest. Or using it to reinvest in say a new car. Or to refresh the current offerings. Would have a better ROI. Also if I was in that board. I would think. Distancing the company from that man child would be a priority.

Gadshill

ROI doesn’t really apply to this sub anyway.

splayed_embrasure

Sizzling ROI?

businessboyz

It is literally impossible to communicate with wackadoo conspiracy theorists like yourself when you butcher the meaning of words to death. Nihilism is a belief that life is meaningless, not that modern society is so massively complex and life riddled with randomness to a point where “control” as espoused by people like you and fire guy is not possible. And Ponzi schemes are very specific things literally named after the guy who popularized the con. It’s impossible to have one without some head planner because the **defining part** of the scheme is a fund manager using contributions from new investors to falsify investment returns shown to earlier investors. In more simple terms, it’s showing investors an ROI without stripping out fund contributions. Anywho, this is the last I’ll say to you since I know it’s mostly pointless: The existence of corrupt institutions does not mean *all* institutions are corrupt nor that the wider system itself is corrupt. Your insistence to toss the baby out with the bath water is so beyond wild when there is such a large camp of people who largely agree with you but get turned off by your “pseudo-nihilism” that **everything** is a scheme.

zhiharng123

It definitely is. But some people need time know that. They put their whole life savings into options and blow it all . If they can find cheap good companies that can give a ROI of 50% or become multi baggers over a span of a few years maybe they won’t find themselves hanging from a tree or with lead in their head

DoUnicornsDevourEggs

You don't need insane candlestick knowledge but a general understanding of a new patterns or what certain sticks could indicate does give you an idea of how to buy low and sell high. My biggest success so far has always been setting buy orders at the lowest low in the past hour of whichever penny stock I'm at, or somewhere near, and just waiting for the bump. It's important to identify higher volume penny stocks because those are the ones that you can jump in and jump out of. Kind of like day trading, but at very low value. It's important to know you won't be making massive scores unless you're dumping £30,000 at something like 0.04 and getting out at 0.05. That's 0.01 on every stock for profit. Doesn't seem like much with £30 invested, but the more you invest the more ROI. I'm just trying to make your expectations low. Lastly -- you'll lose. You'll be impulsive. You'll misidentify the buy-in point. You'll sell at 2R (two times return on stock) and it'll continue to spike to 3R. Just do basic research, find a high-volume volatile stock, and identify the scalping pattern, get in, and get out.

FullCopy

True. I’m still waiting to see the ROI on all that tech.

Sharaku_US

My definition is probably not the same as yours. What you define as good may be too risky for me. I'm perfectly happy with 1-2% ROI on my BP for 0-1DTE spreads daily and cut my losses at 2X premium.

GiraffeAs_

just let it dump already bols think of the juicy ROI you'll get at 485 or lower

INSYNC0

Shareholders get ROI not only from capital appreciation, also from dividends and buybacks from the issuing company. Hence, not "completely dependent on new investors".

bubbawears

DAX is up, 🌽 keeps climbing, Iran won't fight back Don't listen to bears that wait for Armageddon to get 10% ROI. Happy halving regards 

JeromePowellsEarhair

That sounds like a lot of monkey motion, extra work, and extra risk to “get rich quick.” There’s no such thing as a free lunch. Put your money in a money market - perfectly liquid and returns 5%+. Now spend all that time you’re saving to further your actual career. That’s your best ROI. 

FoldItBackandSlapIt

Kingdom Come: Deliverance on sale for $5.99 at the Steam Store. Feel like that's a way better ROI than the 1DTEs I was gonna buy.

Legitimate-Taro635

Maybe they could stomach a drop of 30% or 15%. What is the average ROI for their portfolio is the question. The client should be well informed of the "risk profile" at the beginning. Anyways it should not be underperforming in these market conditions. And if its "aggressive" MS should not be conservative.

Trademinatrix

Exactly! If anything, I would rather put my money on QQQ and 'chill' than be content with a messily 10% ROI. I been doing DIS, it was my latest big winner. I caught it while it was getting 'canceled' last year, alongside TGT, and both have performed incredibly well. Not selling anytime soon. We will definitely keep learning and improving. People that like to settle hate seeing others win, which is why they try to rationalize their own incompetence through 'averages'.

WallStBetsReferee

Wait until it drops 90% after the halving because of a plummeting ROI

AP9384629344432

Maybe it's as simple as valuations are rich and no rate cuts means the proper multiple ought to come down? (If you believe interest rates and the 'fair multiple' have some inverse relationship) Then you don't really need a catalyst for stock prices to fall. That post the other day complaining about people saying 'red days are normal, get used to it' was pointing out things like 'Actually the S&P 500 is just recovering gains it had lost from 2022'. Maybe, but I prefer to look at the valuation not the raw price action, to judge what is 'fair' or not. I don't really care what the 2022 ATH is and whether we are above/below it. I care about the valuation today and thus my future returns. (I actually have no idea if we are below/above 2021/2 highs) Also need to see evidence of strong earnings expansion before rally can continue. Similarly need evidence that massive ongoing AI capex is actually generating a strong ROI. Everyone is buying up shovels, the shovel makers are seeing enormous earnings, but are we getting bigger holes?

TheKingInTheNorth

People don’t get that the largest impact these moments have is on the miners. It forces them to rebalance the ROI that mining infrastructure can give them. And this is at a point in time when mining already has a lot of scrutiny for the amount of power it draws. The halving itself does next to nothing to the supply and demand equation of the trading price of BTC. The number of coins entering the market from mining isn’t that meaningful compared to the trading volume it sees every day. But it has a huge impact on the miners themselves. And it’s the miners that actually secure the network and prop the whole story up. If the economics of mining are ever put at risk, the whole thing collapses unless BTC creates another incentive to participate in the network.

ScottishTrader

1) Any stock I trade is one I am willing to hold for weeks or months, and sometimes this means I will sit on shares until they move back up provided, I still view the stock as a good one that will move back up in a reasonable time. I'll plan to not have a CC open and hold over an ER as the stock price may move up to where a CC can be sold, or just close the shares for a profit. If the stock price drops over after an ER, and there is no fundamental change in the stock, then this could be a great time to sell more puts, or even just outright buy shares to reduce the average cost. At any time if a stock has had a fundamental change and is no longer one my analysis indicates will move back up in a reasonable time then I will work to exit to take the loss and move on. This should not happen often, and if it does then you should review your stock selection process for how you ended up trading a poor quality stock. 2) I don't typically post gains, but they have ranged from around 12% to about 59% in 2021 as shown on this post - [The Wheel vs Market and Buy and Hold Returns : r/Optionswheel (reddit.com)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Optionswheel/comments/oyovxk/the_wheel_vs_market_and_buy_and_hold_returns/) You can find others on r/thetagang who post their returns, like this one - [Wheeling returns over trailing 12 months.........44.3% return! : r/thetagang (reddit.com)](https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/1bkcap6/wheeling_returns_over_trailing_12_months443_return/) And this one - [2023 Wheel Strategy Results : r/thetagang (reddit.com)](https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/18s7m1u/2023_wheel_strategy_results/) I'll be the first to say that the wheel typically offers fewer losers and a more winners to bring in a lower risk but modest side income. If you're looking for a way to get rich, then the wheel is not likely to get you there. 3) No. If the stock is one I'd be good holding if assigned then I will trade it. I'm convinced that I need to "take what the market is giving" and that traders cannot dictate returns. Those who try to "force" returns of a certain amount tend to end up trading crap stocks and then get stuck holding them. We saw this with some of the meme stocks that many were "bag holding" and the current example is DJT which will filter to show a great ROI but likely crash and burn to cause losses. ROI takes a far backseat compared to trading a high quality stock and I'll take a trade with a small $50 profit on a good stock over a $500 possible profit on a crap stock. 4) I say I am "full time" but the wheel takes very little time to trade once the strategy is well understood and the tools and processes are in place. Trading options using the wheel is a large part of my income and I treat it like the business it is. A question back to you is to ask where you are at with your trading? Are you starting to trade or just asking a lot of questions as you consider it?