Reddit Posts
There is absolutely no way Nippon Steel is actually going to close on $X
Why the outrage over US Steel being bought by Nippon is dumb- just the dumbest politicians trying to rile up their xenophobic supporters
Anyone playing Cleveland-Cliffs ($CLF) through Jan/Feb 2024?
CLF Board Actions (put your money where your mouth is edition)
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) proposes to acquire U.S. Steel (X)
US STEEL (NYSE:X) rejecting Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) offer
Insider Trading Weekly Update #037: CFOs at Visa, Procter & Gamble Sell $21M, $MRK Execs Sell $32M, Banks Get a Bid - Insider Trading Recap
2023-04-18 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of Elmo
2023-04-11 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of Abraham Lincoln
2023-04-06 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of Buzz Lightyear
2023-03-20 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2023-03-16 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2023-03-03 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2023-03-01 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
Hot Stocks: QSR, CLF fall on earnings news; CDNS, BTU rise (NYSE:QSR)
Cleveland-Cliffs eyes 8% higher steel shipments in 2023 (NYSE:CLF)
Morning Briefing 🌞 Feb 8th 2023 - Let's see if we're right again
2023-01-31 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2022-11-09 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2022-10-24 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)
Notable Friday Option Activity: AA, CLF, APPH
$NUE - Favourite Steel Name, Sector Breaking Out. I've Just Bought.
in other news..my first options trade. buy CLF
Forget about CLF, I'm all in on CHIA
Request: advice on portfolio in light of recent economics
Anyone under 40 has never invested in a Bear Market & It shows - Long $GLD and $XLE
CLF poising for a Turnaround? 🔥
In a sea of red in 2022, here's how I have beaten the market by 42 points in Q1
$27 to $3800 this month XOM CLF. I know I know it’s nothing compared to everyone else’s gain porn
CLF -- Bull Trap or the Real Deal?
Once more for the people in the back: $CLF
STEEL IS BACK ON THE MENU BOYS! DD into CLF, and why a new all time high is possible soon.
How’s 2022 going with everyone? Here is mine a nutshell! And why I’ll go all in $NVDA
$CLF Gang Rise Up, Thank You u/UniqueCod69
CLF earnings - What's really in question here is; how many analyst's wives does LG have sex with afterwards?
Week 5 Earnings Plays Analysis and Historical Post Earnings Moves Compilation - $DIS, $PTON, $CHGG, $CLF, $UBER, $AFRM, $TWTR, and More
Week 5 Earnings Plays Analysis and Historical Post Earnings Moves Compilation - $DIS, $PTON, $CHGG, $CLF, $UBER, $AFRM, $TWTR, and More
CLF play for earnings, they are gonna kill it.
$CLF just getting started. Going to $30. #commodities
Option has 3 weeks till expiry and almost no time value--best strategy?
First year investing. Just a 10k (well... 7k-15k, depending on the month!) portfolio, I've realized I really like selling calls
CLF - Technical Analysis shows CLF will still be going down, not up.
Seems to me someone long CLF got liquidated at cash market open? Marge calling?
$GME $CLF $ZIM Taking stock of of this years gains
$CLF: A Wonderful Money Maker That Wall Street Hates 🚀🚀🦾🦾
Surprising the only thing holding strong is CLF, not a squeeze play, just sayin.
CEO of CLF just bought 50,000 shares. His son, CFO, added 10,000 in the last couple of days.
Still looking for my Moby Dick, but at least I have a hook in case I find it. (Total loss is 14K, mostly $SPY and $CLF)
Please convince me not to yolo into CLF and LEV weeklies.
Timing entry into infrastructure stocks
Looking for Infrastructure related picks but need to be produced in the US
How I took a $200k profit to a $90k loss: A study in retardation
From 200k profit to 90k loss: Death by a thousand mistakes
Mentions
Should have listened to whoever the regard was I saw yesterday telling everyone to buy CLF calls…
CLF close to 40% upside to recent high.
I bought CLF too soon
Commodities are getting clubbed like a baby seal. $FCX, $CLF, and $AA are all down 4-6%. If this continues I will be buying the $XLE oil stocks over gold & other commodity stocks. Higher US 10 yr rates (4.6-5%) are good for crude oil for some reason, and kryptonite to gold, copper, and other commodities. On a longer time frame, if US 10 yr rates do approach 5% again, another $TLT trade could be interesting. If $TLT falls to $83-$85, that might be a decent short term reversal trade. $TLT has found support around $82 going back to 2004, 2006, and 2023. Of course the fund only goes back to 2003. Just some of my worthless rambling market thoughts. I tend to believe many stocks are too expensive rn, so I am looking at other investment options.
It doesn’t go thru, moons to $70, CLF buys it for $30/share, moons to $150
CLF looks like it’s falling off an actual cliff!
Calls on CLF….stock is down nearly 3%….CEO will be in CNBC at 4pm EST today….stock always bounces after he hits the airwaves and gives interviews….he’ll defend year end bullish outlook with strong guidance and $1.5billion stock buy back…..
Switching my bear game, tired of messing with tech/chips, will tank but never stays down and so expensive to short. Gonna go after industrialists/basic materials on earnings. Puts are so cheap and so many are up like 30-50% since Oct. Had puts on NUE, CLF. Feel like FCX, SCCO, STLD are also gonna tank they remind me of ALB in Lithium craze. Anyone else have that idea?
Calls on STLD. They have been best USA Steel maker stock by far. Although CLF & NUE both posted top and bottom lines misses for the quarter, year end guidance remains strong on industry. STLD is well positioned to beat.
Why would I get CLF calls ? I don't even know the company. Just wanted some action
Calls on Goncalves' blood pressure numbers for CLF's ER CC, lol
CLF misses on EPS & revenue but re-affirms strong year end guidance. Stock down over 4%…..ouch! 😞
Anyone play CLF earnings ? Last call
Anyone playing CLF Earnings ? I think they beat easy but question is if this shit moves ?
$NUE $CLF calls for ER today?
Calls: V, LMT, COF, RCL, IBM, CLF Put: PEP
I’m not really concerned. I’m dual invested in US semi conductor fabs and Steel companies like CLF for the long term. While INTC and TSMC are making foundries in the US it’s all going to require 75,000 tons of steel reinforcements and 35,000 tons of structural steel per factory. I’m not looking for overnight success but I have faith in the long term, especially with the geopolitical tensions rising.
I have that. The YOLO one went from 8k to 150k on penny stocks back down to 15k back up to 150k on covid time SPACs now it's down to 23k. I do take money out at times and put it into real stocks. There've been some petty good 10X real ones FCX, CLF, NVDA. TAYD in hindsight I wish I'd spent more time looking for those.
That is an interesting point about CLF. It might be our investing style. I became even more attracted to copper after reading about which metals are the least and most volatile in price. Tried to find the article but can't remember the title. What I do recall is that gold and copper are the most stable. Presumably if my bets to against me, I'll lose less money. But, also I might gain less money if I am right. If I wanted to take on more risk, I might not have sold my nickel position and such. My favourite iron ore stock is Fortescue. Hooked on the gravity powered train. That is some creative cost savings.
Bought CLF in Jan and have been treated very well with 25%.
$CLF and $X are at a bargain right now.
CLF is a great company and stock. Paid for my car downpayment with the profits from it.
CLF is steady good money. Too practical for this group? $clf
CLF is steady good money. Too practical for this group? $clf
Well, if you look at the charts, they periodically go through cycles coinciding with construction, of course. With the rumors of interest rate cuts I thought it might be a good time, so took a chance there and with CLF. Rates didn't drop and CLF bid on X didn't go through, had already made about 30% on each so decided to move to cash in case of possible correction
Honestly Microsoft, Ford, HITI, VISA, CLF (it is rotational but predictable and company fundamentals are solid). I like to be diverse I got equal $$ amounts in all of them.
Don't know why, but you gotta love CLF climbing!
It’s a great story. Am I supposed to be proud of you? I’m not picking on you. You said nothing. We could give you some analysis if you could give us a ticker. It mostly 3 or 4 letters, sometimes 2. Sometimes one letter. I don’t think it’s too much to ask. I sold a 19 strike put on CLF. There is no way I can’t lose 200k on that trade. Maybe $1900 minus the premium I was paid.
CLF saying they're going to make an offer for US Steel at about 30 a share is hilarious like bro... Nippon offered 50, do you not understand how to negotiate 😂😂😂
But its not US Steel isnt some powerhouse in the industry, in fact tge US would produce many multiple times wgat wed need in a war for steel even without US Steel. And Japan us one of our biggest allies. And even if they werent those mills are on American soil, worked by Americans. Also the Nippon deal would improve US Steel.who fell behind. It will keep jobs, create more, etc and creates competitive prices which are good for consumers. Meanwhile if CLF buys it thered be instant layoffs,plants would close, the HA shuts down and is merged in Cleveland, and a cpuple companies have a stranglehold on prices domestically so consumers would get fucked. Plus uits about taking on the big Chinese companies globally which Nippon lus US Steel becomes a top 3 or so company globally (US Sreel.and CLF arent even top 20)
Lmfao literally. At this point fuck logic. You should hope into AMD 200C 3/15 if you can. If not 3/8. But if you don’t feel like playing that, here’s some other options AMZN 180C 3/8 TGT 160C 3/8 or 3/15 GOOG 145C or 150C 3/15 MSFT 430C 3/15 CLF 25C 3/8 or 3/15 I’d love to say META 500C but it’s being so lame right now and can’t properly clear $490. That’s really all I see right now. Hope this helps bro
Holding RGTI. Might unload CLF.
First clip is 5 years old. CLF is up 68% from 5 years ago. He as true to his word lol
The worst I don’t know. But the funniest are by far (and it’s not even close) CLF earnings calls. Lourenco Goncalves is a savage. https://youtu.be/kcagi2icXaU?si=Pko_YK6jfczeYEe5 https://youtu.be/zdqUvGsidbM?si=NsCdzjHtWeYKykB0
Well they just decided not to keep tariffs on steel which is forcing the closure of a Tin mill. Probably not too bullish on CLF probably why he sold those.
CLF? Hmmmmmmmm me no likey
What’s up with the naked strangle on CLF that far out?
I think he's wheeling CLF. I don't know why it's not that great of a premium. Hmm
A few grand is more then enough to start selling options! A couple I currently sell options on is CLF, PLTR, AAL, RIOT(when around $10 and stop at $15). Each one I think is under or fairly valued which is the key to selling options. I make about $80-$100 week which is about 1% definitely solid. Let me know what you think of these.
Not going with X. CLF is a better company. So undervalued. going to $40
SPY went down, CLF and SAVE went up. My calls are happy
Sold Visa and GM calls today at a nice profit. Wondering if I should’ve stayed in. Holding OSK and CLF through earnings. Pray for steel and trucks
CLF dropping 2.4 % on top & bottom line misses….
CLF call, WHR call, UPS puts hope I don’t get clapped 
In the CLF call club...I agree but wondering why all the execs sold off a bunch of shares at the beginning of 2024?
Calls on NUE & CLF. Lots of free cash flow & CLF recently raised prices.
“This right here “ ☝🏼 Preach it . People were making fun at me selling 16/20 delta Put credit spreads on F, CLF , M ,now they are asking to borrow money ..LOL All the paper trading doesn’t compare to taking small trades and learning the fundamentals of options
NIO, SOFI, PLTR, AAL, CLF, F All under $20, a few under $10.
CLF on the 100 and 200mda And has earnings next week. I’m gonna put 10 doll hairs on a call option
Commodity sensitive: STLD, XOM. EGO, PAAS, NUE, E. GDX, CLF My guess.
900% was QCOM earnings play. 2200% was CLF during a sector wide 3 day bull run. Both were OTM calls. Neither of these were all that recent.
Been sitting on a lot of cash and just loaded up on a lot. AAPL, PLTR, GME, TSLA, CLF, CCRN and a lot of oil names
So, after I made $$$$ of US Steel (bought low 20s, sold over 50) it got me thinking..They had a lot of offers..You think some of them might start trying to acquire CLF as a second choice? Nippon is making a calculated bet that theres plenty of business in America coming for the industry and the fact that we know of like a bunch of companies who offered to buy US Steel. I know CLF and Ohio politicians are throwing a hissy fit over not being able to steal US Steel with their terrible offer but if a big offer comes along I wonder if theyd all have the sane attitude.
GME & CLF my best ever moves lol
NUE has 4x it's stock price since 2020, CLF has almost 5x since 2020, MT has 3x....... not sure what your definition of a good sector is lol
anecdotal but i hear CLF are a bunch of dirty rotten scoundrels. if Nippon can inject some efficiencies into US steel it will be a win win. slightly concerned on us gov supply chain concerns tho.
Ultimately, [I did play CLF's breakout yesterday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/18rsd6w/comment/kf4likc/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) (Dec 27, 2023) at the open. Once again, I'm able to make money with the play. However, the time limit and target prices are the ones that keep making me lose these bets. I mean, not even with the breakout attempt did CLF reach 21.37. Tsk tsk.
I think you will see that happen. CLF is on very good terms with their union and the union is 100% in the Biden administration's ear.
1) you’re wrongly assuming the rise in stock price in the last few months is purely attributable to the CLF offer, and 2) again, you can’t just compare the offer price to a trough 4 months ago and call that the “fair market value”. If you look at implied multiples for the offer, it’s not even that crazy
There are really only a couple of accepted valuation methods: DCF and comparable sales. Not much for recent comparable sales, but if you had to go that route you’d look at AK Steel which CLF bought a few years back. My analysis assumes efficient market philosophy which means DCF is built into the pre-offer stock price. However, the premium assumes a DCF on the synergies. My point is that the synergies creating 50% more value is already a tall order, 157% is insane and not possible, especially from a foreign company that is trying to break into the space here in America and has no current local synergies.
I have owned CLF for about 3 years and kept a close eye on the steel industry sector. Bought X after CLF's offer with my Roth IRA money because it was hovering $30 and the offer was $35 with a likely bidding war brewing at the time. I just sold my $X at $48 because I don't think any real valuation can get you above $42. You can see there is a higher cushion between buyout price and current price than there was when CLF was the only offer on the table. That additional difference means higher risk. I think the risk is even higher than what is being priced in given the political climate.
You are right. That's what CLF offered. Nippon offered a 157% premium.
Yeah there were like a dozen offers and CLF had the shittiest one..It wasnt even all cash
CLF deal was like $15 per share plus a share of CLF which was like 20. Nippon offered 55. But CLF and Ohio politicians are butthurt because CLF couldnt steal it.
Probably stays the ssme since their offer was the lowest out of atleast a dozen offers we know about and CLF couldnt even do a full cash offer..So nobody with a brain thinks CLF is going to buy X at this point. And this Nippon deal is most likely going through.
CLF wasnt the only company to offer, their offer was the lowest. There were offers in the 40s per share and probably higher..We know of like a dozen comoanies who offered. Nippon is thinking long term with their investment. The infrastructure plans in America are one plan, its easier to do business here when they gave mills gere because shipping steel overseas is expensive. The other plan is to grow their comoany globally. Theyd immediately be a top 2 or 3 company globally and can market themselves as the best steel company on the planet because Chinese steel has a poor reputation. Biden cant just reject things based on feelings. The goverment talk is just political theater and sabre rattling that isnt based on facts or logic. Security expetts alreafy stated this isnt a national security issue because the US produces way more steel.than the military would ever need so its just insignificant. Japan is also one of our biggest allies and this deal creates a company that can compete globally with the big Chinese companies. 6/10 of the biggest Steel companies on the planet are chinese while not a single US company is top 15. Also Nippon investing in this is investing in America..It saves jobs and creates more. It takes an ancient relic of a company with old ass tech and revitalizes them. It creates competition domestically which is good for consumers. And Nippon has a good rrputation in this industry. Last I checked US steel closed granite city, was outsourcing jobs, laying peopke off, but I guess thats all ok as long as they have the illusion of "American owned" But you somehow think CLF who cpuldnt even make a full cash offer and gad the worst offer we know of out of dozens of comoanies is going to get this because some politicians from Ohio are butthurt? Politicians and union leaders say a bunch of stupid shit all the time and would sell their soul for a few grand But typical dumbass bear play, ignore reality and just make up some nonsense and then huff copium.
OP just making up shot. Where’s $42 offer from CLF come from? Complete fantasy. CLF low balled originally. Not surprised X said no. They then went out looking at offers which we don’t know what they were, and nippon was top. There’s probably a sizesble break fee I’d deal doesnt go through. USS is like 15% of domestic steel production. Not a big issue. Japan is a close ally of USA. No tech transfer. No physical asset transfer. No risks whatsoever. Gov people saying block it are just chattering for votes. OP is the opposite of intelligent.
Deal has to have wildly good synergies to make sense. Frankly I see substantially more synergies with a CLF buyout than a Nippon buyout and I thought $35 was a high price.
Japan us one of our biggest allies.. JD Vance is a fucking idiot and crying like a baby because CLF(from his state) couldnt steal US Steel with their lousy offer. US Steel isnt even a top US Stedl company and certainly not the only one. Also experts weighed in and said its not a sevpcurity issue because we profuce way way way mre steel already than wed need for war so something like Us Steel would have zero impact on that. You should probably educate yourself before parroting what some idiot politician thinks, espscially one with an obvious ulterior motive.
Might be the dumbest play Ive seen lately. Theres no valid reason for the govermrnt to block this. National security experts weighed in and they all said its not a national security issue and the amount of sterl needed forvwar time is such a tiny insignificant amount compared to what we produce (and US Steel and their old ass inefficient furnaces from 1895 wouldnt realky be the forefront of that) Secondly Japan us a very close ally and Us Steel and Nippon combining takes the fight to the Chinese Steel companies globally A lot of the politicians are saber rattling but its all theater..They like to do speeches in front of the Steel Mills because it looks good but then dont do shit to actually help. If you look at the Pittsburgh subreddit a lot of actual steel workers are ok with this takeover and probably hate their union leader. Some politicians from Ohio butthurt CLF couldnt steal US Steel as well. Nippon is investing because they see a lot of business in the future..That means jobs are here to stay and more created. Nippon said Us Steel hq can stay there, they said theyd honor previous union contracts, and they are a company with a great reputation in the industry. US Steel was previously outsourcing jobs, laying people off, and just closed Granite City mill but I guess thats ok as long as it has the illusion of America owned, right? Except its a publically traded company so anyone can own it. And then you arent factory in there were atleast a dozen offers to buy US Steel which is bullush AF if this deal.somehow doesnt go through (it will as I stated above theres no reason to block it) Then you think the government furing Xmas and NY season is going to make a decision in a month? Almost half of which they will be on vacation for? You know the biggest reason it dropped from 50 to 47? A lot of people like me sold over 50 when the news broke and took their profits because wed rather have the money now then wait months and months for a few extra dollars per share max..I bought in the low 20s, selling over 50 is a big win. A lot of experts think this is a good deal for everyone, its just the dumbasses and xenophobes opposing it. And politicians trying to rile up those types to pretend they are on your side vecayse every vote matters.
[CLF chart](https://ibb.co/9HfSvDs)
I have puts on CLF. I think it will bleed down as deal hype falls. Puts are not expensive.
Long term steel investor here with a cost avg of $4.90 on $CLF. Don’t trade options on steel unless you buy calls into 2025. The premiums won’t pay unless the market goes full commodity super cycle mode.
Just dumbfuck xenophobes and racist who think every Asian country is China. Japam is a very strong ally yo the US, why put that into question because a few dumb fuck politicians need to pander to their base. National security issues already said this isnt an issue. Right now 6/10 of the top steel companies are Chinese. None of those in the top 10 are American. Also this Nippon Steel is good for consumers in the US because it keeps things competitive. If US Steel was sold to lets say CLF, well youd only gave two choices domestically and youd get fucked..Think about cable/internet, you have two choices in most places and both those companies can work together yo fuck consimers because you literally have no other choice. As for politociabs. Sloth is from that part of PA and needs those votes from the dumb xenophobes so hes gonna kick up s guss..JD Vance wants CLF to own it because thats his state. Politicians are as easy yo read as a book. I think itd gonna be a lot of theater where the goverment pretends to care to pander to certain people but id be shocked if this doesnt go through. Its weird to weaken a relationship witj our greatest ally in Asia just to pander to dumb gucks for votes. As for me. I bought in the low 20s, sold the second this deal was announced at over 50..I got paid. As for my advice, I wouldnt go puts over this. They just ttuing yo scare you into making dumb plays. Also, there are like a dozen companies interested in US Steel and the fact that they are getting these big offers is nullish for them and the industry...so puts/shorting is a dumb idea.
CLF's low ass bid will get accepted when the legislature smashes Japan's hopes. At least that's what the recent price action tells me some people believe
Didn’t he also lose a ton on CLF calls?
A few dumbfuck politicians who cant tell the difference between China and Japan are yelling nonsense about US Steel being bought. They dont realize a) Japan is a MASSIVE ally to the US b) The jobs are staying here c) Nippon Steel is looking to make money with all the infrastructure plans in the US and also want to grow so they can compete with Chinese companies because 6/10 of the top steel.companies in the world are chinese. As for the US, this deal is good for consumers. More options to buy from means competitive pricing, where as if CLF and Us Steel combined well your choices would be slim and they could just charge however much they wanted and cnsumers get fucked. Why area few dumbfuck politicians attempting to disrupt the great relationship we have with Japan just because of xenophobia or "a couple dumb fucks in my state are racist but I need their votes" And theres dumbfucks on both sides who are talking like this..Of course Vznce from Ohio wants Cleveland Cliffs to buy it, dude has about 2 brain cells total and its obvious ehy e wants that and opposes everything else. Security experts already stated its not close to a "security issue" and if you have more than two brain cells youd know the steel mills are on US soil worked by Americans and again, Japan is our ally. So basically its a few ignorant dumbfucks going "muh state" and america" with no real reason..I seriously doubt this gets blocked..There are plenty of "American" companies not owned by an American. Did these same politicians throw a fit when GE was bought by a Chinese company? No. So if you are pkaying puts, dont. I think youll get fucked because the deal will probably go throygh..The small drop you saw was people like me who took our profits and sold yesterday at $50. I got paid so idc just giving you all .y two cents on the subject.
I am all cash because I can't see anything that isn't pricing in infinite growth. Even basic companies like CLF have exceeded price targets. Everything is expensive and it feels like we are due for a healthy pull back. IF (big if) I had to pick some potentially underpriced stocks I might say 1) small refiners, but good luck playing oil markets 2) Chip makers not named Nvidia.
I am a CLF stockholder. Would love to see CLF go up a similar amount. If CLF were valued the same way as X by this buyout, it would be up there around $50
Nippon agrees to buy USS for $55 cash. Union is not happy. X is up 26% today to $49.60, hell of a premium compared to back before CLF made an offer. But also CLF up big, 10% today to $20.50. I want to see CLF go up much more. Overall CLF share price should be about equal to X.
$X up 26% because it's being bought by Japan's Nippon. I own CLF, which is up 9% following X's coattails, and CLF's CEO issued a statement about X's acquisition saying it proves that CLF is still undervalued and needs to be re-rated. Also made a statement on debt improvement and future share buybacks.
Last 5 bucks is because deal hasn't gone through... X is kinda squirrelly regarding disclosures. Nippon may have agreed to their terms, but CLF flat out refused when they were bidding. We'll see.
CLF offer was laughably bad. It wasnt even full cash.
CLF calls if you feel like chasing Steel.
$X having multiple bids to be bought out by $CLF or $NUE
Puts on NUE / CLF? Steel has often been a sell-the-news sector. With these two running up in anticipation of an X announcement, might be a good time to bet on a reversal.
they already said they had a 1-2 banks lined up to finance it. financing isn’t an issue. a collective company would steamroll. Also, for those keeping score at home, CLF has less debt than X. X just maintains more cash on hand. By the end of this Q, I’ll likely argue they have equally decent balance sheets. Again, CLF opts to utilize its cash and X stockpiles it. Not saying one is right or wrong - dependent on a bunch of things. If that deal goes thru both shareholders win