TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Mentions (24Hr)
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+TLT -selling near term OTM covered calls for steady income - good strategy?
On what timeframe does the bond market price interest rate changes in?
What do you guys think? SQQQ and TLT?
Inherited a bit of money, any good advice?
Thoughts on buying TLT now that JPow said rate cuts are on the table?
Risk free and guaranteed high return investment?
TLT Options Play / FED Cut Early Mid 24? / Vix Low
Is it the right time to invest in long-term bonds?
Is there a way to realize gains in one stock and move those realized gains into another stock without being taxed?
Investing in a treasury bond ETF a good idea? Please advise and don't make me talk to boomers at r/bonds
Why long-duration, low-coupon treasury bonds are about to return 25%
Why would a long term investor buy stocks rather than long term bonds, currently?
Potential 6 Month Trade on TLT Targeting >14% Annualized Return
what's the point of tlt if it's just as volatile as stocks
TLT covered call(buy-write) will yield around 14%. Is this a good place to park money I won't need for 3 years?
I made a free theta gang options group. Trying to build a community of non degenerates
Just made a 10K loan to gamble in bonds
Oil Tanker Stock Investors vs TLT Bag Holders
Powell will Powell the Economy + Bond ETFs for 🏳️🌈 🐻
Powell will Powell the Economy + Why I'm buying TLT as a 🏳️🌈 🐻
how to maximize Exposure to interest rate movements with bonds ?
Rates are not high and the market is not crashing especially when Apple is still near ATH and not $120.
Generational buying opportunity on TLT
How Do Bond ETFs Work, and What Happens to the Principal at Maturity
Why is the yield and SEC 30 day yield of TLT so different? Which one tells you the annualized rate of the next dividend?
Find most correlated stock to TLT (treasury bond)
10Y Bonds at 4.8% Are Attractive,Especially Now
What if WSB could ignite the spark that sends $TLT parabolic?
Expected moves this week: SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO and earnings from Citi, JP Morgan, Wells and more.
With the sky high Bond Yields would it be a good idea to buy US Treasury Bond ETFs right now?
$70k Puts QQQ: The World Will Burn Edition
Is it finally, finally, finally time for TLT / long dated treasuries?
Are TLT Leaps so cheap they are worth it?
30 year US treasury yield is much better than TLT which has avg maturity of 25 years
Considering Long Duration Bonds as an Opportunity
Is TLT Hitting its Bottom? My Play for the Upcoming Rebound.
Putted 20k in bonds and down -20%
Looking for a Simple Backtest Analysis to Do. Any Ideas?
Wall Street Newsletter S03E02: Four Research papers from Jackson Hole Symposium 2023.
How to get rid of my trading habit to invest properly! Fear of losing the money!!
Doesn’t need to make sense needs to make money
Boomers Getting Flushed With Their "Balanced" Portfolios
Why is TLT still falling despite disinflation, looming recession fears and China deflation (exporting it to RoW).
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 14th, 2023
Increasing order of risk. IEI < HYG < JNK < TLT 😂
Just sold all my VOO and QQQ to put 90% in TLT and 10% in Bitcoin. Am I dumb?
Mentions
Puts on meme stocks... no positions means no real reason to keep valuations that high. TLT calls after CPI is in line or slightly lower. Calls on QQQ too.
Good luck. 10y yield went down 8 bp. TLT close to a monthly high. The move in yields down this past month is a big factor in the meme stock rally. If CPI is in line or better than expected we are ripping higher across the board.
Yield curve has been inverted for almost two years. Stocks did OK. Bonds are down (long term bonds are down 14% in past year, see TLT; intermediate term down about 5% past year, see SCHR). It's just really, really, hard to know what do; conventional wisdom says diversify across asset classes setting the allocation to the different classes based on your time horizon.
TLT is really letting it spray today
TLT on LOD but keep buying
TLT, up to my balls in it. Not doing anything exciting
Looking out the window with my yearly TLT calls at all you people having fun outside.
TLT green after that PPI number is a bit confusing
TLT puts babyyyyy they better cut them rates
TLT like “guess I’ll die”
TLT and AAPL fading not good for power hour
No TLT you're so sexy don't kill yourself
Fair question, but FXI, and TLT are also correlating with EFA and then there is GLD. It is just transference. Sell high, buy low. Has nothing to do with politics.
For me was combination of O and MAIN plus with on TLT and covered call and Buywrite Strategy ETF(for me just buy them for enchaned the yield of cashflow,as combination of TLT and TLTW
If you don’t buy TLT don’t bitch in here when the fed pivots and you miss out on 50% 
don’t think i’ll ever see TLT mentioned in this sub what a world we live in
Can’t see shit. What’s TLT at in futures rn?
TLT is not a place to park cash. It's a high risk investment. SGOV and BIL are examples of ETFs to park cash.
I agree this this view. However, I will say that there is another risk with TLT which is that short rates come down and long rates (more demand driven) stay roughly where they are. Only in that instance do I not see a great outlook for long term bonds here, especially in strategic asset classes.
Puts on TLT would be a decent substitute if you don't have a futures account, yes.
The longer the duration of the bonds held in the fund the greater the return would be should rates drop. But, it also increases risk. An example is a bond fund (say TLT) with about a 20 year duration bonds. If rates drop 1% it should rise in value about 20%. If rates go up 1%, it would lose about 20% value. And, if rates stay unchanged you can collect that sweet 4.6% yield (which is not too bad) while you wait for something to happen. A 5 year duration bond would be 5% up/down in the same situation (rates up or down 1%). 2 year duration would be 2%, etc. All values approximate. The point is, you have to understand your appetite for risk and then select bond duration (if you are using bonds for capital gains instead of as fixed income where you would hold for the duration) People were "YOLO TLT" a year ago and it is down 12.5% for the year. Just make sure you understand bond duration and associated risk.
TLT hit a 20-year low last fall, around 82. IMHO it could dip lower from here (90ish) in the short-medium term, but it’s still dirt cheap, and could easily go up 50% once the Fed starts cutting. Of course if inflation gets out of hand and the 10-year goes to 7 - or 10, or god help us 15 like it was in the late 70s, it could get much cheaper.
TLT, VGLT, EDV, etc
TLT - Because the pain makes me real.
Yea Hong Kong makes it tough. You can build a ladder with any duration though and some brokerages you can set it up to auto repurchase that duration. Additionally there’s ETFs like ibtf, ibte, sgov, TLT that you can build out similarly. Personally I think going long yen with FXY or ycl is pretty attractive right now I’d be curious what the arbitrage with the yuan and yen is compared to USD
IWM & TLT: “nah it’s cool we LIKE dumpsters”
You guys trying to figure out news events are playing a losing game. Most of the larger funds are playing probabilities, earnings projections and the direction of the 10-year bond. If rates are falling, bullish, if they're going up bearish. We know the projected targets for CPI and CPE over the next 3 months look pretty good, like we should have falling numbers right? So you position in front of the news to come, you don't wait for it to happen. There could easily be another correction if things soften more than expected and we start to see earnings fall, if that happens your bonds are going to rally which will give you money to use to buy the stocks on sale. Extremely good argument to be at least 20% in TLT right now and that's why
Yeah TLT is only down like 40% in the last two years
I have been plating TLT on and off since last year. I'm already there.
Faaak I hate when that happens. I did the same damn thing with my TLT calls on Fed day eventhough I knew better. Smh
Waiting patiently to get another TLT yearly call at ask. I am the only buyer 🤓
Missed the opening RDDT puts play, so naturally, I take the top comment at the time and research the next. Happened to be TLT puts for 5/10. Does this earn me my "blind regarded play" WSB merit badge?
TLT odte puts before 1300 gonna print
I think a big trader had a trading error around 8 am today does anyone else see wierd piece and volume activity at around d 8am today? If you draw a 5 minute bar the high of that bar is much higher than the surrounding bars you can see this in TLT TSLA XBI UVIX and others
No worries at all, I love talking about this stuff. I've been doing this shit for years now and learned a lot of lessons that way. Always glad to share/discuss To your first point, the simple answer is, you don't. It's the same as selling a stock while it's running up and watching it run up even more or selling a stock that's falling and watching it recover afterwards. You will feel sick if it's a lot of money left on the table but as the saying goes "a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush". Think about how much worse it would feel if the opposite of what happened had happened. What if you didn't sell at all and the stock reversed and you just lost a lot of money by sitting idle and not doing anything? It's always easy to look back in hindsight and say you should have done something different after knowing how things would have played out. But just because the good outcome could have been better doesn't mean you were wrong for choosing the good outcome. Never doubt yourself when you come out ahead. The name of the game is profit, not becoming an overnight millionaire. I've exited tons of plays way too early over the years that have made me sick. If you want an example of one that still haunts me to this day, here you go lol: * I sold these 500 GME shares in March 2020 that I had bought in Feb 2020 cause I thought the stock was oversold and overshorted for a nice 20-30% gain at $3.64. The stock proceeded to >100x over the course of the following months because of the WSB/roaring kitty insanity that I could never have seen coming. I could have been selling calls/the shares themselves and been retired by now off that 1 play had I held. But how tf was I supposed to know that was going to happen lol? I was literally in and out of the play before roaring kitty even made his first post based off the same thesis he had. Only difference is I didn't make posts about it or have the backing of millions of wsb regards at the time lmao 😂😭 If you ever feel like you sold too early and regret not waiting and making even more money, I urge you to come back to this post and look at that image. Sometimes, unpredictable shit happens and it hurts, but you just have to move on to the next one and leave it in the rearview. There's always more plays to be had and dwelling on the past only messes with your ability to make good plays in the future. About 1 month after this play, I had my biggest ever options win with a combination of spy put spreads and TLT calls that ended up gaining 1600% and 18000% (respectively). I sold most of those way too early but I have a screenshot of the last few I still had the day i sold the last of em: OK I know this comment is getting way too long now so I'll try to address your 2nd question quickly here. Yes, it sucks when you buy a stock and sell calls only to find it dropping past where you profited off the premium. So how do you play this? The way I do it is by adhering to 2 rules: 1- Never buy 100s of shares of a company you'd have issue owning 100s of shares of regardless of price fluxtuations. Simple. Don't go buying some shit penny stock or the latest no-name pumping stock to try this method on cause chances are you'll get stuck bagholding and losing money on it while feeling shitty that you don't even like/know the company. That's why the example I listed in my post above mentioned my doing this with RDDT. I don't mind having hundreds of Reddit shares at a valuation of 6-8Bn. Matter of fact, if I could have thousands of em right now I would. I love them long term. 2- Only sell calls when you are both already up on the underlying stock position AND the stock has recently made a big move up causing the calls to be temporarily mispriced (due to a combination of volatility and unexpected move up). Once the upward momentum premium is baked into the call price, you'll get much more bang for your buck from selling it and it would take a much bigger move down to put you in that position you mentioned Side-Note: if you have the ability to sell multiple calls, don't sell them all at once. Space them out in case the price gets more attractive a day or 2 later. Example: I sold calls on half my Reddit shares when the stock first went to the 50s after IPO then sold the calls on the other half when it proceeded to go even crazier and ran to the 60s the day or 2 after. It ended up averaging to a really nice selling price overall that way. Anyway, sorry about the wall of text lol. Like I said, I love talking about this stuff hahaha. Lmk if you have any other questions
Sold everything and got TLT calls for next year. I’ll end up holding for maybe 2 days before selling and buy some 0dte shit
Damn, TLT dividend hit for last month. $523
Check TLT chart Oct thru Nov of 2021 we had same shit back then
This is final trap for bond bulls en route to TLT 95 after that they get bitchslapped like a mofo
Pardon me for not replying sooner. I began my sellputsthencalls strategy upon retirement from Fidelity in 2017. With about 85-90% of my IRA. Initially versus 4 ETFs (DIA, EFA, EEM & TLT), then versus XLE, & for the last 2 years versus SPY. Exclusively using monthlies until 2 months ago when I began weeklies. I'd say the returns are consistent. By design, option selling should generally perform versus the underlying's buy & hold, as follows: option selling should do well but underperform the underlying in a thru-the-roof market; outperform a modestly-up, flat & modestly-down market; & outperform an into-the-tank market by losing less than the underlying. Since using weeklies, I've generated premium yield of about 9% annualized, but I also see appreciation & depreciation because of SPY pricing. I want to select strike prices with a 20% chance of assignment, but with SPY being well below my put assignment strike price, I've selected much higher assignment chances for my covered call strike prices. Using monthly statements, I compare my OSS (option selling strategy) to a small amount of FXAIX (S&P 500) that I hold. An example of performance: month ending 3/31/24 -- FXAIX +3.2%, OSS +2.7%. month ending 4/30/24 -- FXAIX -4.2%, OSS -1.4%. 2 months, 2/29/24 to 4/30/24 -- FXAIX -1.1% (-6.5% annualized), OSS +1.3% (+7.7% ann.) YTD thru 4/30/24 -- FXAIX +5.9% (17.7% ann.), OSS +4.2% (+12.6% ann.)
My dumbass bought 91 calls thinking it pump with Williams speaking 🥲. Year out seemed bullish for TLT tho.
TLT please you have more in you.
The doomer "no cuts" cycle is ending and negative economic data is starting to trickle in. 18 months is probably a bit early for peak rate cuts in this cycle (absent a black swan event) but TLT is priced on expectations of future moves, not the moves themselves.
Can you expound on this prediction? What will be causing TLT to go up? I assume you are referring mostly to share value increases. Why do you expect bond prices to go up?
This is the bottom for TLT. Buy it if you're interest in modest ~32% returns over the next 18 months. That's too boring for many here. But many here are regarded.
That's what I mean. TLT chart predicts a brisk drop in rates. That usually means a recession is incoming.
Look at TLT. Inverse SHS incoming. Move should be pretty fast. However there is a risk that this might NOT be good for stocks.
TLT sold 0.5% in an hour, I suspect things will turn to the downside today. Too much optimism after the jobs number, it’s still pretty likely that inflation will be hot. Market won’t get wreck-less before CPI.
I'm all in on US long term treasuries. $TLT CALLs incoming!
Look at TLT and interest rates will go down. What that means for stocks however is not clear because charts suggest a rather quick drop of rates. That usually means recession is incoming. However I am a strong believer that small caps will outperform S&P 500 within the next 3 months.
The TLT has been trading in a positive correlation lately. This has been a little frightening to watch TLT ripping along side the IWM. Amirite?
US equities still the best game in town. I'm out of bonds almost totally except for some TLT as a hedge. Gold has run up pretty far, pretty fast. May be too late for that move. International has been a dog for many years. I doubt you can beat the SP500 or other diversified US funds/ETFs for the foreseeable future, though they may experience a \*temporary\* setback via big correction or even recession. But they always come back even stronger.
I like the New High-New Low Index on Daily and Weekly Charts as well as Stocks above 50 Day MA. The Commitment of Traders Report is the best if your trading Futures, but can also help with TLT, GLD, SLV, USO, and UNG
You need to look at their relationships to SPY. If TLT is up, and DXY is down, SPY is likely in an uptrend. DXY is up, and TLT down? SPY is likely heading down.
What you looking for with TLT and DXY?
I watch TICK, TLT, DXY, and VIX. Between the four, I can usually form a decent, intraday, market thesis.
Prices at Monday open NVDA 900 AMZN 190 AAPL 190 SPY 515 QQQ 440 TLT 91 VIX 12 SQQQ 10
Options are leveraged, but also taxed (most cases. bear with me here) short term. One avenue is to synthetically increase your exposure to gold and TLT and GLD as if you were long those positions. You could use options on futures that are taxed 60%\40%. And you don’t sell your stock. It adds risk and don’t know how comfortable you are with options. Another option is to sell covered calls on your stock to help you with the tax bill (but also add a bit more short capital gain tax). You define the exit price and the quantity, if you hit it, take the profit from both. It would be like DCA-ing in reverse, if you sell little by little. Overall I don’t think there is a better way to rebalance than simply selling stock and buying gold and bonds, and taking the tax hit. All of the above simply adds complexity.
Need TLT at 91.00 today for a 10 bagger
This guy likes TLT under 90 - it's going back to 140 with rate cuts in 2025
Obligatory response since I haunt WSB forums: Tbh, 1,000,000 is a lot of love and blow. Life is short. Make it 🔥. Real response: Do NOT park it all in one investment. I personally like fixed income until rates come down. UBER has corporate bonds at 8% available until 2026, and there are some great instruments like TLT and TLTW you can buy. I also like REITs and, if memory serves, he could move some of that money into other real estate (like rental property) and lesson/eliminate his tax burden on capital gains. Obligatory: talk to a tax professional. IF YOU ARE INEXPERIENCED, I HIGHLY suggest talking to a professional wealth management service. I love my Edward Jones people, but they are expensive AF. Vanguard has good rates and I believe hands on management available. But, like, there are people whose entire careers revolve around not losing your money. You should talk to them.
Then buy shares. Almost 5% dividend. Nothing wrong with waiting when you have that yield. Reason I have options is because I believe this is the bottom for TLT and the minute the first cut goes in, it’ll pop. Then I sell.
Look Im bullish on TLT but that shits gonna stay down for years until it comes back
Few words of wisdom from a boomer who has been gambling in the market for over a decade. Majority of you don’t last long because you’re chasing 300% gains with limited resources. When all is going straight up for no reason, it’s easy to make some money. Those initial gains you made trapped you and now that the market is coming to a bit of sense, you are failing. It’s not that you are a bad gambler or the unluckiest person alive, it’s because you don’t have enough experience to gamble in turbulence. Lock in small profits. Sell at 30% gain, sell at 15% loss. Re-enter. Don’t rush. Market ain’t going no where. Positions: NVDA 880p 7/19 30K TLT 92C 8/16 12K 🥸
I am actually looking at buying some TLT as a hedge/dividend play where its at today. $88 share. If market doesn't go as planned you aren't losing money. Yes, it could be looked at as dead money currently... But long term I don't see how ya lose.
is anyone 0DTE gambling on TLT? instead of SPY/QQQ?
but given the uncertainties, I have my own private inklings of where to gambol... it's not the fastest fucker but... I got TLT july calls, bc macro/micro red signs, growth uncertainties, rate cut uncertainties all point towards an incoming positive risk/return on treasuries in the immediate future.
TLT flies or dies today
I can't believe I'm saying this... but maybe I need to buy a fuck ton of TLT calls and turn off market
fuck this, fuck that, it's time to long TLT and flip off the market
Well, you look at that monthly chart, it's close to its all time lows, it's almost a 50% correction from the high. Whenever there is a major asset that corrects 50%, if we just look at The past 50 years, buying it has been a wise idea. Financial media is not covering it. Neither are people on YouTube, that's a lot of green lights. I bought a couple hundred shares of that the past few days and I plan on buying another 10 or 20 every couple dollars it goes down. If the economy breaks, TLT is going to rip while stocks fall. If stocks hold up and do well, that's why I still have about 75% stocks. TLT isn't likely to cause me a large loss and it pays a nice monthly dividend. I might slightly underperform but at this particular junction in time. I like having a larger TLT position. Well it's not large but still it's over 20 grand
any after thoughts about TLT being down to around $88?
TLT 90C 5/3. You’re welcome.
Bullish for TLT will be rate cuts. Even though no rate cuts are ahead of us as of right now, imo TLT has a historical support at 87-88. So it’s okay to buy calls months and months out and wait.
If TLT falls to $83-85 I’ll buy TMF.
Commodities are getting clubbed like a baby seal. $FCX, $CLF, and $AA are all down 4-6%. If this continues I will be buying the $XLE oil stocks over gold & other commodity stocks. Higher US 10 yr rates (4.6-5%) are good for crude oil for some reason, and kryptonite to gold, copper, and other commodities. On a longer time frame, if US 10 yr rates do approach 5% again, another $TLT trade could be interesting. If $TLT falls to $83-$85, that might be a decent short term reversal trade. $TLT has found support around $82 going back to 2004, 2006, and 2023. Of course the fund only goes back to 2003. Just some of my worthless rambling market thoughts. I tend to believe many stocks are too expensive rn, so I am looking at other investment options.
Are you thinking the treasury refunding schedule and fed QT tapering will be bullish for TLT?
Can you imaging the dump in bonds 😂. I can honestly see the 10 year dropping 100 basis points in a day if that happens. TLT guys would all be buying lambos
Adding to u/value1024 , if you think rates are going to move you can play that very directly via things like TLT or TMF (leveraged, be careful). The issues with playing it via stocks is that you can have idiosyncratic drivers that may make the stock perform differently than interest rate drivers alone. Not sure why long term options would be the play here, if you are counting on a big move right after / during the meeting you might want short term ATM positions.
Higher than expected borrowing by the treasury should cause TLT to fall though shouldn't it? Why TLT calls?
Friday I bought a put for my TLT shares for a put's intended purpose. Now that TLT rose .70% today my gains are now lowered because of the put's value dropped. Moral of the story: never hedge your positions
see that big red candle 35 mins ago on TLT, it was timed with this announcement: The US Treasury ramped up its estimate for federal borrowing for the current quarter to $243 billion, more than most dealers had anticipated
So Yellen announces big treasury funding, drops bonds day before fed meeting. Odds of this being timed with some positive news regarding QT tapering just went up in my mind... Took some speculative, really otm/longer duration TLT calls to play the meeting.
Right now the 10 year yield is dropping so my TLT is up.
How does one play TLT, Grandpa?