RCL

SuckAlpha

Look at GM, RCL, GCT for potential

Impressive_Recipe433

I made a lot of money on CVNA no doubt ... but, I can't believe I didn't stay long on CVNA and RCL which are were my two favorite options plays. Oh well, glad for those who went long and stayed long

JohnnyPoster

Sorry you are saying RCL donated 10% last year? That is from a convertible bond being converted and that came from the pandemic.

JohnnyPoster

RCL has already over 20% more EBITDA than CCL and $10b less debt yet its market cap is only 50% larger. RCL in 3/4 years could have close to $0 debt if it wanted. And no CCL has close to interest expense of $2b a year. It has a while to go before its debt is worked down.

SuperbobU2

Dang I messed up. At covid crash I bought a bunch of CCL. I just felt like it had a better chance to recoup. RCL went to 20s. If I had put my money in them instead I would be a very happy boy. Still in CCL and some NCHL and still think it will do well for me but dang

Casting_in_the_Void

I have 328 shares. My Dad has over 2000 bought near the end of the pandemic. We also have CCL and NCLH but half as much. Disappointed RCL didn’t moon a bit last week though.

heel-and-toe

If no other pandemy or WW3 occurs, CCL will eat that debt in 3-4 years and bring it back to pre-pandemic levels. It will buy back its shares or build more ships which will increase the earnings. This will make it undervalued. It has way more up potential than RCL.

SupportOk8464

any idea if RCL we start dividend payout again?

profdaddy91

When you say RCL has double the debt, who are you comparing that to? It’s unclear. Your post is a little too jumbled up to understand for half the people on here.

JohnnyPoster

I thought it was obvious that RCL is significantly undervalued and the noobs are buying CCL and NCLH since it is down more without noticing the companies have 2 to 2.5 more shares outstanding and 2 to 3 times more debt with similar earnings. RCL has nearly double the earnings/double the debt and 30% more shares. NCLH has 20% more earnings, double the debt and 2.3 more share out. CCL has the same earnings, triple the debt and double the shares outstanding.

elysiansaurus

Interesting how up until the end of 2022 it was the same graph, it was only after that RCL started mooning while the others stagnated. Also what are you even saying, your post tells us nothing. Are you saying RCL is undervalued?

JLHockeyKnight

There are some good examples in here but I'll go with the dumb one. My wife and I cruised for the first time in 2017 with Royal Caribbean and loved it. Wanted to cruise a bunch again. We even had a cruise booked in March 2020. As the cruise date got closer and COVID became more real, we canceled and took the loss in non-refundable fees but with 2 young kids at home we couldn't risk being quarantined for a month on a cruise ship that was refused port. To my regret: Royal Caribbean gives on board credits to people who own 100+ shares of RCL. In April 2020, RCL dropped below $25. Could have spent $2500 and had free on board credit for the rest of my life plus whatever gains RCL had, now at $140 a share. But was too timid to spend that much on shares for an industry that could have potentially gone under given how bad they were wrecked by COVID. It is what it is I guess.

Nano_Frontier

Blackrock owns 2.5B worth of RCL shares. It’s going to the moon.

Expired-Option

RCL should kill it all year given their biggest new ship the Icon of the Seas runs on LNG And Natty G has been slaughtered over the last 2 years

billyd1984texas

It is but it's still undervalued except for RCL

msmaidmarian

didnt RCL just bust doors on their earnings this week? feel like that whole sector is popping post pando.

Casting_in_the_Void

Ships looking good so far, no icebergs…RCL earnings & guidance very good…but will it still plunge to the depths? Hope not, twas my bet for today for calls!

Expired-Option

CUK is trending yet RCL gets no love? 

Front_Expression_892

Let's test my predictions: Winners: MSFT, ROKU, DXCM Losers: SNAP, RCL, GOGL, TEAM

plaidplaid420

Been holding CCL since Covid. Thought it was a no brainer. When it’s going up it feels great. But also comes down just as fast. Just need to hit calls on the run up and sell CC when it’s not. It should have mooned on the last earnings. RCL reporting tomorrow should give indication of future price movement. Need rate cuts sooner than later to regain $18+. That said I’ve lost a ton of money being on the wrong side of CCL and pray I can make it back on a big month again

hipstersarentunique

Calls: V, LMT, COF, RCL, IBM, CLF Put: PEP

DrexlSpiveySR

Losing big on RCL today.

Distinct-Race-2471

It's a fact. Easily researchable. Why do you think it has lingered under 20 since Covid? I mean... They took a wrecking ball to shareholder value while RCL weathered the storm. No pun intended.

Miso-7

I was going to throw out a DD but here’s some info. CCL has had a positive operating profit for four straight quarters. Last month CCL reported its first-quarter earnings, for the period that ended Feb 29. Not only did revenue totaling $5.4 billon rise 22% year over year, but bookings are at all time highs. In Q1 customer deposits topped $7B, which is higher than the previous posted bookings last year at $5.7B Around 12.46M passengers in 2023. Booking numbers suggest that unlike other industries, the cruise business might be inflation resistant since it caters to a more affluent customer base. Furthermore, cruising companies are particularly resilient to recessions, as you can observe in the graphs for the Worldwide Cruise Industry Passengers and Carnival Total Passengers. During the 2008 recession, the total cruise passenger volume remained steady and continued to increase AND CCL plans to expand capacity berths by nearly 5,000 by 2025. In 2023 there were an estimated 31.5M passengers in the worldwide cruise industry and is expected to increase to 39.5M by 2027, which means an annual growth in passengers of 6.34% through 2027. CCL also holds a 39.5% market share, ahead of RCL and NCLH. CCL has a large enough fleet to operate at lower margins and therefore offer lower fares. Any new company willing to offer to cruise for the middle class would need to focus on luxury cruising because it will not be able to compete in pricing with CCL nor with RCL. This same thing applies to cruise companies with smaller market shares. RCL has also beat earning estimates the past four quarters and their Q1 ER is 5/2 P/M. NCLH has beat earnings 3/4 (missing in Q4) and Q1 ER coming P/M 4/29. I expect a beat on both and expect a slight move between the three for each ER. Out of the three CCL is HIGHLY undervalued compared to the others and expect a little more traffic coming in. Excellent value play/long term hold. -CON- CCL’s long-term debt sits at $28.5B which is a big reason many investors are wary about investing in the stock right now. -HOWEVER- During last quarter CCL’s operating cashflow was a positive $1.8B, which is a huge improvement from the $400M this time last year. CCL released three new cruise ships for its Excel Class from 2021 and 2023. They announced a new 180,000 ton ship order for 2027. Weinstein stated, “Our responsible capital approach will support utilizing our substantial free cash flow over the next several years to strategically improve our balance sheet, significantly reduce our leverage levels and continue to transfer value from debt holders to shareholders”

yogi19210

RCL

Mirikado

MGM stock price in 2005 was $43. MGM stock price in 2024 is $46. RCL was $40 in 2005 and $138 in 2024. Disney was $20 in 2005. $218 in 2024. Are you illiterate as well?? How exactly do these stocks “outperform” Disney?? What? And you mot read graphs? You belong here you regard. Netflix is a tech company. It’s also the exception, not the norms. Almost every stock would look bad compared to Netflix. And Disney was never considered to be a tech stock anyway so it’s irrelevant as Disney doesn’t get the crazy valuations that tech stocks do.

Anfini

After the pandemic, I made a play for the cruise industry. Divided about $10k to the big three. My gain/loss so far CCL -23%, NCLH -17%, RCL +99%

whiskeyanonose

The dreaded it depends answer. Have things fundamentally changed with the company or the broader market when I initiated the trade that require me to rethink my original hypothesis? If no I’ll let the trade continue, if yes I’ll exit. Just as I set targets for profits, I set targets for losses. Helps better manage risk and P&L. And it’s not always a week in the dot. Sometimes it’s 2 weeks and sometimes it’s 2 days, but with how the market has been going up lately, it’s been more around 1 week (8.75 days for my trades this year to be exact) I had been doing more weeklies, but started to read and listen more to what others were doing. The theta gang made some interesting points and helped me better understand thetas impact and how it has different inflection points vs time. Initially I was looking at it as holding to expiration and weeklies would net me more as well as allow me to reposition strikes, but left me vulnerable if there was a decent move at the end of the week. After looking at it more and dipping my toes in, I’ve found more success in longer dates but closing early. I don’t pick solely based on delta, over the last few months I’ve gotten a better feel for what a good option price is for specific downside protection on a handful of stocks (AMZN, RCL, SPY). But delta is one of the things I track, and my average of positions opened this year is 25. Again with how the market has moved, I could have made a lot more money if I had taken on more risk, but I wasn’t comfortable with that

Friendly-Excuse400

I doubt RCL brings back a dividend anytime soon. They took on a lot of debt due to Covid and need to address repayment. With $24B in long term debt, leverage is over 5x when you consider EBITDA is running about $4.5B. It will likely be years before they pay a dividend imo as they need to direct free cash flow to pay down debt.

proteenator

NCLH CCL and RCL all gained today. Was it to do with the baltimore bridge collapse ? Wondering how cruiseliners gain from that incident

Justzyn_Jefferzyn

RDDT swing actually looks appetizing after this day.  RCL and CVNA potentially as well

Any_Yogurtcloset362

Depending on a portfolios mandate if it’s a fund, it may be required to have exposure to certain sectors or a money manager wants to be diversified across multiple sectors. RCL can provide good exposure to leisure travel without some of the headaches airlines or hotels provide. Most of the cruise season - like 99.9% - is already set for this year so it has lower risks involved compared to say MTN. I will say I see CCL correct back up now, so it’s pretty much flat from before the ER which seems more appropriate given what it did. It will be interesting to see how it settles going into the next quarter of guidance then.

esombad

Why do you think people would leave CCL for RCL? It’s not like people must have a cruise liner in their portfolio. There’s many other better stocks to lose money in.

Any_Yogurtcloset362

If money leaves CCL for RCL that will cause CCL to go down past a technical level most likely which then allows them to cover at a profit. It’s a pretty smart short term move if they get the rebalancing the market sees as a possibility. If I were a fund, I’d be rethinking the allocation and preparing to do it on the next quarterly rebalance so I don’t get stuck holding the bag. Short sellers don’t care about people but they are about the bigger fund pools. Looking at the order book, there looks like lots of bigger moves still holding out so there’s some bigger players out there looking to cycle now.

esombad

I won’t argue that RCL is the better stock. I’ve been holding them for years. Short sellers could care less where people go. They just want to cover their short interest. People see price go down and panic sell which creates a ripple affect. Those with balls and brains know to weather the storm.

Any_Yogurtcloset362

The earnings aren’t bad on the surface but when you compare them to RCL, they are a huge disappointment. Unless you’re trying to be a commodore and own all the boats, money will be shifting into RCL for those that want exposure to this particular segment of the travel sector. The bears are shorting since they expect money to leave for RCL moreso than any other real fundamental reason.

ironexia

CCL Regards should of also played RCL

DrexlSpiveySR

I hadn't paid it much attention until you mentioned it in a post a while back. I also went all in with RCL and NCLH. CCL seemed like the best bargain of the three. To me, they all feel like a safe long term investment. Unique experiences that should have more than enough demand long term.

Callec254

I think that's pretty standard for most cruise lines, I've done it with NCL and RCL.

Sweaty_Painting233

I truly feel like the way the stock will go will truly come down to guidance. What kinda of guidance was there for NCL and RCL?

Infinite_Tune3800

Well, Norwegian Cruise Line went from $16 to $20 on their report and dragged with it RCL and CCL with a few percent the same days.

KnewTwoDiss

Let's see: RCL Mooned. NCLH Mooned. CCL will moon, as long as no ships sink or new pandemic shows itself between now and ER.

Copperhead881

For people looking at CCL calls, NCLH options interest is even higher. That along with RCL are great ancillary plays as they tend to move in tandem with one another. RCL probably has the best return if you estimate a small percentage return if you think CCL crushes guidance (which it should).

PremiumGrade

What are we thinking on RCL? 

thane95x

Easy calls on CCL IMO, following how remarkably NCLH and RCL bounced back. This industry looks strong for a big comeback.

mrpittard20

The slow climb RCL. Let’s go

gopoohgo

Dunno why RCL mooned compared to Carnival or Norwegian. People love cruises

Federal_Rutabaga1413

Adding more $CCL calls and buying more $RCL shares.....wave season is going to be like an ATM

GreatSomewhere6846

They are bound to match RCL gains

dyl-will

This. Got in on RCL right at the start of the pandemic and they’re almost back at pre-Covid highs

Federal_Rutabaga1413

Looking to get ahead of IV pump 2 to 3 weeks out CCL earnings. RCL has crushed and NCL has crushed. Its prime "wave season" strong bookings for RCL and NCL and it sounds like Carnival has strong bookings as well. This thing could be a 20% gainer or more.

mrpittard20

Who’s holding RCL from breaking through $127😡

KAI5ER

CCL, RCL, and meta (for a bit)

mrpittard20

Get your ass up RCL

GayBrandFlakes

RCL Puts 115$ April 15th

GayBrandFlakes

earnings drop on 3/25. Recently NHCL and RCL (Cruise stocks) both have had recent EPS thats hit. CCL is the only Cruise Stock currently where the "Cash/Debt" is terribly high. Recently though Carnival Cruise Lines have been putting great measures to reduce the debt and has been filling up Cruises regularly again. Im buying 20$ Calls for April hoping earnings do well in march.

thewimsey

>By contrast, margins for the remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500 contracted by 56 basis points and earnings fell by 2% (the declines being driven primarily by energy stocks). While I'm sure this is true, it's misleading because of how it contrasts the M7 with the rest of the index, as if only the M7 performed well. For 2023, only 3 of the M7 were in the top 10 stocks for growth. 140 stocks did better than the market average, and 35 stocks did better than APPL. NVDA and META were the top growing stocks, followed by RCL (Royal Caribbean), BLDR (Builder's First), etc., with TSLA coming in at #10. And Meta deserves an asterisk in the record book, as it fell 65% in 2022, and so its significant growth really only allowed to to break even with its previous high by December 2023.

SherbetTiger

>Novice Robinhood Trader Here….. Current Portfolio > >UBER 5/14/2020 - LYFT 5/14/2020 - TJX 6/28/2020 - RCL 7/14/2020 - SAM 8/14/2020 - AAL 9/28/2020 - C 11/14/2020 - BUZZ 7/28/2022 > >Have to drop 1 in order to buy Reddit. Who gets the Axe? Depends on how big your positions are for each of them.

Bhut_Jolokia400

Novice Robinhood Trader Here….. Current Portfolio UBER 5/14/2020 - LYFT 5/14/2020 - TJX 6/28/2020 - RCL 7/14/2020 - SAM 8/14/2020 - AAL 9/28/2020 - C 11/14/2020 - BUZZ 7/28/2022 Have to drop 1 in order to buy Reddit. Who gets the Axe?

Inside-Unit-1564

RCL Calls printing.

Inside-Unit-1564

What's going on with RCL

falling_knives

Do you have 100 shares of RCL? I heard some cruise lines gives you perks if you own 100 shares or something.

Mangocaine

Same goes for RCL, although I just didn't have the money at the time to invest. RCL is so big that the post covid share price would without any doubt bounce back, and we're talking about massive gains. Ah well, just gotta wait for the next big crisis and target industries that will profit or rebound from it.

multiple4

I wish I had bought 100 shares of RCL during the pandemic or in 2022. They give people who own 100+ shares on board credit, of $50, $100, $250, or $1000 based on the length of the cruise Right now 100 shares would cost over $10k. But during 2020 or 2022 you could've gotten it for between $2.5k-4k. It's an awesome deal because I think RCL is a solid investment, the free $100 on every cruise is just a nice bonus

Beautiful-Hunter8895

Dude I have no fucking idea. I put a ton of RCL and CCL in 2022 when i first started and RCL absolutely printed, literally at all time highs rn but CCL and even Norwegian have been stuck at below 20.

MichaelSquare

Is there news on $RCL?

Hefty_Knowledge2761

I bought some, not a lot, when it was under $100. I knew it would get above $100 easily, but at that time CCL (Carnival Cruise Line) stock was hovering around $8 a share. I couldn't ignore that, so I bought a bunch of it. Long term, sure, Amazon, but now I have the 100 shares of both CCL and RCL to get a little cash to spend for each cruise I take, plus RCL has the largest cruise ship in the world now. Seemed like an OK bet.

Friendly_Ad_6747

just bought some calls with my RCL profits from ER. Best of luck to you. Seems like a good stock, Rich Piana traded it back in the days of 2000 and its owned boomers... dont think it will die

SmutBrigade

I didn’t have the balls to hold CCL as a proxy for RCL earnings after my INTC fiasco. Still managed two profitable trades on the long side with it tho so I should be happy with that. Thesis is still incredibly bullish on CCL but if the market is pulling back, I would rather wait and look for dips. Rolled out my UVXY to next Friday and sized down.

lostredditorlurking

Cruise liners look like they are making a comeback. RCL already at ATH, now CCL and NCLH might run this year too

ddrt2345wert

B4 open: peloton = Fail, becky goes to the gym to take videos of men being annoyed their videotaping in yoga shorts on the bench press while doing leg lifts and complaining about harassment, no gyms stop this, tiktok/insta love n hate this SIRI = wtf, no SHEL = do douchebags in v8's and high end vehicles actually fill up at 94 premium? Doubt it. RCL = Fat people who can't buy homes like big boats if not ATH and low expectations/low iV =calls Ball = balls? TSCO = tractor supply .. dunno, are they supplying conglomerates or fighting john deere issues? if so and low over last 5 years maybe theta strangle GOOS = winter doesn't exist this year in canada, buy puts/sell calls or if near a low Strangle theta. RACE = rich people shit, are saudis buying more Limited editiosn than horseS? I wont touch TAK = Takeda your calls to da moon, takeda your puts to hell, maybe the opposite? Fuck u the market is personallly againstu That's where i end the pre-open earnings, go fuck yourself come to my local wendy's dumpster $2 blow $5 ass 

Friendly_Ad_6747

go on cruise? or RCL calls for tomorrow?

SmutBrigade

If CCL can hold this it would be just fantastic. RCL earnings tomorrow.

GlutenFreeBuns

!banbet RCL 122.5 2d

bauer5x

So we are still unwinding inflationary covid stimulus and the return to travel bump. I typically don't trade in the cruise space, but RCL's valuation isn't justifiable when compared to peers and alternative travel. Why are the big airlines still trading at a massive discount to RCL? Just doesn't make sense risk/reward to me. I have recently opened puts so maybe I'm just being biased though. As for the new orders, that doesn't mean anything (I would say this even if I was bullish). Delayed capex spending plus likely supply chain / worker / efficiency delays for manufacturers post covid. Nevermind the fact those are soft orders this far out. A lot can change. TL;DR: Everything you said could be mostly correct, but RCL could still be overvalued.

bauer5x

Have you considered RCL is simply the overvalued one here? How anyone can look at their debt load and think the current valuation is justified is beyond me. Basically have to be assuming record bookings continue for every Q for multiple years. Good luck with that.

SegheCoiPiedi1777

Debt. They are too much in debt. Not that RCL is not in debt, but the level of debt for Carnival relative to its size is just something else. We are still in a high interest rate environment and the market is (legitimately) discounting some stress over that debt. This said, I am not going to discuss whether or not they are a good investment - they could legitimately be an interesting bet on interest rates going down - however, I would argue that thinking it's worth investing in them based on the fact that you found 2023 cruises to be very booked is not great due diligence.

puckpuckgo

Agreed, but all of them have astronomic debt. In fact, NCLH is least in debt out of the 3, which makes sense since it is also the smallest of them. While RCL has made some progress in paying their debt down, it is still owes the GDP of Zimbabwe.

udgnim2

https://i.imgur.com/3cdYxyH.png beating the market over a 5 year period, but it's not by much. portfolio is currently 61.5% money market, 39.5% individual stocks, and no ETFs. being hard carried by AMD. return would be higher if I was more open to risk meaning I was more willing to have higher holdings of stocks like RCL / META when they dropped hard, but that's easy to say in retrospect long term view, I'm not beating the market enough to feel what I've been doing is better than a portfolio of index funds, but individual stocks are more engaging & interesting

IvnestingGote

So calls on Visa and American Express, then go calls of AMD and QCOM, calls of WMT, calls of RCL. Then retire in the Mediterranean

WorldlinessExact7794

“MaYbY pEPpER iN sOmE InTeRnAtIoNaL ExPoSuRe” /s Seriously though, fantastic portfolio. The only thing is that you’re not with the most efficient allocation. With a optimized weighting, you would have been down -0.42% for 2022 versus -19.51% for VTI. That with a four year avg return of 33% versus 15% for VTI. While having a lower risk than VTI. The reason is you have very low correlation. Your average covariance is 39% which is fantastic. How did you pick your current allocation? Random? The max sharpe ratio portfolio would be AAPL 9.65%, BRK.B 1.53%, CAT 5.17%, 22.82%, LLY 33.43%, MSFT 15.93%, RCL 4.06%, WMT 7.42%

BedContent9320

Next year, when everyone here has flipped from "lol that company sucks it will never keep going ur an idiot" to "man this company will change the world there's so much room for growth!!!" After it's gone +200% in a year, you will know.       My tech plays are Seagate (cuz 4k is a lot of data, data needs to be stored, stored data is mostly Seagate or w/d and w/d is a financial mess)  adobe because they are making regard friendly ai Photoshop style software so that regards with no talent can make their own cartoon porn at home, which pisses off all the current filter programmers and anybody who gets paid for artistic talent but they are objectively a minority.  Microsoft, because the last decade has been good with them and the next decade looks great,  little nvda because fomo, it goes against all my rules but whatever live or die by the gamble. Nov: people sleeping on this shit, literally made "lose weight without doing anything but taking a pill"   the market for ozympic is fucking massive, the more it's out there, the more people want it. C'mon. Unfortunately I think a couple of my best plays from the last couple years are coming to an end though. Rolls Royce and RCL, if we see a recession would love to pick up more. RR been absolutely killing in aerospace, only cpeition is GE and GE is bigger but losing market share.  But, I genuinely think that over the next decade pets related companies gonna see huge multiples. People are working in careers for more hours, having kids less, and instead buying pets. Especially pets with a lot of shitty genetics to make them "look cute" that need endless medication and upkeep.  My biggest problem is most "pets" related companies are a financial mess seemingly run by idiots, but that's a trend I see on the horizon that should see nice returns and doesn't have a lot of people talking about it. 

rackoblack

It has a 5.5% dividend yield average, with 14% of the portfolio earning none at all (GOOG, AMZN and RCL).

Devocean77

Made my money on RCL last year. It's near pre COVID price rn so I'm thinking it doesn't have very far to run. CCL is still like 70% off its pre COVID levels, plenty of room to run. Oh, I might add, CCL has reported record revenue and record bookings every quarter now for like 6 quarters. They're still digging out of the COVID hole but they really should recover more this year. I was up $60k on my position at the end of December and then the first two days of January it sold off 5+% both days and absolutely rekt me.

mrpittard20

Good stuff RCL. Pick it back up Monday

Honeycrisp1001

Anyone know if CCL is building an exclusive island like RCL to capitalize on the shore excursion?

m1raclemile

Was on a Royal Caribbean cruise that sailed out of Singapore in December around Christmas. The ship was fully booked, insane amount of people on board. People were buying shit in the onboard marked up “luxury shops”. Lots of private groups for shore excursions (these are RCL coordinating with a local tour operator and then marking the price up 1000x - google rcl private journeys). I laugh when people tell me we’re in a recession, I sure haven’t seen any evidence of that.

ColdStoryBro

I'd say RCL and CCL. Won't be a big gain next year but a decent rise is almost guaranteed. Cruises are recovered but the stocks are lagging. Its a matter of when, not if, and the when is now.

mrpittard20

Just give me .50¢ today RCL

mrpittard20

RCL to ATH tomorrow

mrpittard20

Come on RCL break 129 and hold

mrpittard20

RCL is the way

mrpittard20

RCL stay up!

mrpittard20

Break 130 RCL. Pls

Playful_Cup_6717

Ex I traded CCL because I saw that RCL had a big move after their earnings call, so I assumed that CCL would too. It also had a nice cup pattern and so I found a point when I can enter with exp and strike price good and all that. Same thing with GTLB after PATH had great earnings.

mrpittard20

RCL!

kcyc2123

Buy $RCL and $CCL

kcyc2123

Buy $RCL

pe_smith

Virgin really seems to be taking hold. My guess is they’re taking market share from RCL and carnival. Not so much NCL. I think it will take its toll on RCL.

kcyc2123

Travel names bull flagging into close. $RCL